Late innings

The Fox column is on hiatus until pitchers and catchers head south, yet I've still got baseball on the brain, so let's chase some headlines . . .


The Red Sox re-sign Mike Lowell to a three-year, $37.5 million contract: I realize I'm late to the party on this . . . but c'mon, what's not to like? Great deal for the ball club, and a nice raise for the admirable third baseman as well, a classic win-win situation. I'm skeptical that Lowell will ever duplicate his sensational '07 season, but then, I was skeptical he would hit in the second half for the first time in his career, and all he did was win the World Series MVP award, so it wouldn't be the first time he made me look like a boob. And even if Lowell does fall off to somewhere slightly below his career norms offensively - say, if his numbers average something like .275-17-80 over the next three seasons - he'll still be well worth the sticker price, if only for his dependable defense and, yes, steadying influence in the clubhouse. Sometimes I'm suspicious that the recognition a player gets for his leadership often runs parallel to his level of cooperation with the media, but I think in the bilingual Lowell's case it's a legitimately valuable attribute. I'm glad he's still on our side, and with him and the Big Schill sticking around, it's nice to have a drama-free offseason and a chance to root for essentially the same core group next season. (By the way, isn't it just strange seeing Lowell in a Yankees uniform on that baseball card? It reminds of how disconcerting it was to open a pack of baseball cards and find this when I was 10 years old. I can't imagine the were serious about bringing their former farmhand back to play first base, though it would have been comical in this sense: Lowell would have been the second Yankee infielder in recent seasons to switch positions in order to avoid puncturing the massive ego of an inferior defender at the same position. Right, Captain?


The Angels sign Torii Hunter to a five-year, $90 million contract: I like Hunter a lot. He's charismatic and fun on the field and off, one of the most engaging interviews in any sport and a player whose passion for the game shines through in his play. He has 59 homers and 205 RBIs the past two seasons, and he's probably good for 25 homers and 90 or so RBIs a year into his mid-30s. And while all the homer-heisting "Web Gems" he made at the Metrodome probably caused him to get more credit for his defense than he deserves - should the Twins somehow acquire Covelli Crisp, he'd be an upgrade with the leather, despite what the Gold Glove voters say - Hunter remains a top-notch center fielder, even at age 32. But - and there's always a "but" around here, isn't there? - Angels rookie GM Tony Reagins is making a mistake if he thinks Hunter is the guy who's going to make life easier for Vlad Guerrero. With a .271 career average and a .324 on-base percentage, he's more suited as a No. 5 or No. 6 hitter rather than as a lineup anchor for a team with championship aspirations; to put it another way, his most similar career comparisons are Carl Everett and Preston Wilson. Zoinks, Scooby. Now, if the Angels should land Marlins enigma Miguel Cabrera - who I'd love to someday see in Boston despite his Body By Nutty Bar - then give Reagins a pat on the back and praise him for remaking the feeble Anaheim lineup (remember Maicer Izturis, No. 5 hitter?), because a heart of the order of Guerrero-Cabrera-Hunter makes them the favorite in the AL. But Hunter alone? Not enough.

The Twins reportedly offer ace Johan Santana an $80 million extension: If that's not a cue for the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, and a half-dozen or so other teams to get their trade proposals into Billy Smith, pronto, I don't know what is. If Santana goes to free agency after next season, he'll make twice that, easily; hell, the offer is $47 million less than what the Giants gave a declining Barry Zito last offseason. So I guess the real question for the TATB readership is this: Would you give up, say, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and another legitimate prospect such as Jed Lowrie, to bring the two-time Cy Young winner to Boston? The hunch here is that Theo Epstein, who is prideful about his "player development machine" and greatly values having low-priced, high-ceiling talent on the big-league roster, would be extremely reluctant to pay such a price, unless there's a concern about Buchholz that we're not aware of. I'm also curious if the Sox suspect, as I do, that Santana showed subtle signs of decline last season at age 28 - after all, his ERA (3.35) was the highest it's been since 2001, his ERA+ of 130 was his worst since '02, and inexplicably, he allowed a league-high 33 homers. Sure, it's fun to daydream of a Santana-Beckett 1-2 punch. But given the enormous cost - not so much in terms of salary but in terms of talent going to Minnesota - I imagine he'll end up in New York or L.A. instead. Besides, hasn't Boston plundered enough star power from the Twin Cities already?

The White Sox sign reliever Scott Linebrink to a four-year, $19 million deal: White Sox GM Kenny Williams is beginning to make me wonder if Chicago's 2005 World Championship was a happy accident. We all adore Orlando Cabrera around here, and White Sox fans will as well, but it made little sense to trade Jon Garland, a durable 28-year-old starting pitcher with 46 wins the past three seasons and a career ERA+ of 106, for a 33-year-old shortstop who had a subpar OPS+ of 95 in what at first glance looks like a very productive season (.301-8-86). I'm not saying Cabrera won't be a quality player for the White Sox - watching him play steady and occasionally spectacular shortstop every day might be enough for White Sox fans to be okay with the deal. It's just that I think Williams dramatically underestimated what he could fetch for Garland during an offseason in which the mediocre likes of Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are expected to sign for $8-to-$10 million per season. Chances are he could have got a heftier ransom than merely Cabrera for Garland, but at least an argument can be made for the White Sox' side in this case. There's is no logical explanation why Williams threw all that loot at Linebrink, a 30-year-old setup man who had a WHIP of 1.50 with the Brewers last season after he was dealt from San Diego. It was telling that Padres GM Kevin Towers, who knows a thing or two about putting together a pitching staff, swapped Linebrink for three prospects last July despite the fact that San Diego was in the midst of a playoff race; the Padres clearly believed that Linebrink's best days were behind him, and I'm fairly certain that Williams is the sole dissenter from that opinion right now. I realize Chicago's bullpen was flammable last season. Linebrink will do little to prevent the White Sox' late innings from going up in flames again.

David Eckstein is reportedly asking for "Lugo money," i.e. a three- or four-year deal at around $9 million per season: Yes, I understand his Everyman appeal. Yes, I know he's the patron saint of every undersized Little Leaguer and gritty, gutty, scrappy, dirt-doggy wannabe who somehow never quite was. Yes, I know he runs out every walk (all 24 of them last year) like a miniature albino Pete Rose. Yes, I know he looks so darned adorable when he dresses up like an elf, even if he really yearns to be a dentist. But the reality, at least to anyone who can assess baseball players objectively and without sentiment, is that David Eckstein . . . well, to put it bluntly, he stinks. To a clear-eyed analyst, his flaws are equally obvious on the field and on the stat sheet. He catapults the ball rather than throwing it. His range is sub-Jeterian. His career OPS+ is 89, with a mediocre best of 101. In 2006, he had 21 extra-base hits and 23 RBIs in 500 at-bats, and he wasn't much more productive last year. He is not an average baseball player; he is an aging one (he's 32), and an increasingly injury-prone one (117 games last year, 123 in '06), and by every single statistical measure, a relentlessly ineffective one. And yet I have no doubt that some ill-prepared sucker of a general manager surely will be come close to his asking price for no apparent reason other than the little fella hustles, and that dupes some people into thinking he's actually useful. So pay attention, because this is probably the only time you're going to read these words on this site: I'd much rather have Julio Lugo.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



I give him all the credit in the world. Me, I would have gone by "Ricky" and saved myself the lifelong hassle.

* * *
Quick programming note: Barring unforeseen circumstances, such as yours truly snapping a tibia or two after falling off a rickety wooden ladder while following orders to clean out the gutters this morning, I'll be back tonight to live blog the Pats-Eagles game, so be sure to stop by for A.J. Feeley's public humiliation in real time.

First and 10: Patriots 24, Polian SoundMachine 20

1. So let me get this straight: The Patriots played far and away their sloppiest game of the season, with equally poor tackling and blocking . . . against their biggest rival, which happens to be the undefeated defending Super Bowl champion . . . in a hostile, raucous dome that may or may not have had its sound system enhanced by every microphone Bill Polian's minions could snap up at Tweeter . . . while being forced to overcome a ridiculously inept junior-varsity referee (Hochuli must have been putting on the gun show at the Senior Mr. Universe competition this week) . . . and yet, despite all of that, they scored two touchdowns in the final nine minutes, made two enormous defensive plays down the stretch, and escaped with a 24-20 victory. And yet the recurring theme I heard on the national football shows Sunday night and Monday morning had little to do with the Patriots' remarkable, improbable, affirming comeback or the fact that Peyton Manning reverted to his old habit of swallowing his tongue in the clutch. Nope, all the Youngs and Schlereths could talk about was how Saint Dungy and the Colts deserve a pat on the back for hanging so tough against football's Evil Empire. To which a Pats fan can say only this: Keep it up, fellas. It's this sort of disrespectful nonsense is exactly what's helping to fuel this vengeful, angry football team right now. I'm not saying they will go undefeated - hell, they're not even halfway there yet - but this victory, and the way it came about, should at least make the '72 Dolphins nervous. The mission continues.

2. Just heard John Clayton say the Colts were "thrilled" when Joseph Addai fell to them with the 30th pick in the 2006 NFL draft. Funny, but I seem to recall some lamenting on their part that Laurence Maroney (taken 21st by the New England Cheaterasterisktaints) was the player they really wanted. Either way, things turned out pretty well for Indy. Addai is a remarkably fluid runner, a perfect fit for the Colts' offense. While I'm not ready to say he'll be a better player than Maroney - I still think with good health and a little more decisiveness No. 39 will live up to his tantalizing talent - he's definitely the superior back at the moment.

3. I still haven't heard a plausible story as to why Adalius Thomas played such a limited role Sunday. (I think Mike Reiss said he saw the field on just three of 10 defensive series.) Rodney Harrison did an outstanding job covering Dallas Clark, but you have to figure there still should have been some role for the versatile former Raven, particularly after Tedy Bruschi was so ineffective in the first half; hell, I thought half the purpose of signing Thomas in the offseason was to unleash him on the Colts. I don't buy the theory that the Patriots' scheme was so complex that they felt they had to use the linebackers who are more experienced in the system. My primary suspicion is that the ankle injury he sufffered against Cleveland is bothering him more than he lets on, and in a sense I hope that's all it is.

4. Manning and the Colts' fans should know better than to blame injuries for this loss. If I recall correctly, the Patriots were without eight starters in last year's AFC Championship Game, including the essential Junior Seau (we'd never have heard of Eric Alexander or Bryan Fletcher had he been healthy), Harrison, and Richard Seymour, who got hurt early in the game. By the end of the fourth quarter, I think the Patriots defensive backfield consisted of Troy Brown, Rashard Baker, Prentice McCray, and Fred Marion. Further, the team was ravaged with the flu. Yet I'm pretty sure I didn't hear Manning mention in the aftermath that he picked apart a decimated Patriots defense, and he shouldn't have. It's football; you're always going to be playing without a hobbled teammate or two. This time it was Indy's turn. Here's hoping it is next time, too.

5. The next time these teams meet, the network televising the game would be wise to set aside one camera to aim at Indianapolis general manager/resident lunatic Bill Polian. Mike Felger was talking about this with two of the guys from Patriots Football Weekly (their names escape me at the moment, but the insufferably snide Paul Perillo wasn't one of them) on his show the other day - apparently Polian is an out-of-control madman during the game, swearing, yelling, pounding his fists, and threatening not to pay off the referees if they don't start calling more phantom pass interference calls on the Patriots. (Okay, maybe not the last one.) Everyone I've heard mention this seems to agree that it really enhances the game experience. I don't know about you, but I would pay good money to see his reaction when Kevin Faulk dove over the goal line for the go-ahead touchdown. I bet his sucker-punched his personal Smithers and stormed out of his box to go find an intern to pistol-whip.

6. Regarding Faulk, I probably should confess that I thought J.R. Redmond was a much better third-down option back in the day, and once even went so far as to suggest in my Concord Monitor column that the Patriots should make an example of Faulk and cut him after a particularly boneheaded fumble in a galling loss to Green Bay. Of course, he's overcome those fumbling problems, and despite that it takes him roughly 10 stutter-steps to gain three yards, he's made himself into a remarkably effective, versatile, smart, and trustworthy player. You bet I'm glad he's still here. And by the way, whatever happened to Redmond, anyway?

7. An asterisk? Seriously? I'll just chalk that up as further proof that anything Don Shula says about the Patriots should be immediately disregarded. The former Dolphins coach has had it in for the Patriots franchise the infamous snow plow game. It's worth noting that in a way he was the Polian of his time - a successful and powerful figure in the league who had a knack for using his clout on the competition committee to his own team's benefit. I'm not saying he's a hypocrite. What I will say I suspect he did things to gain a competitive advantage for the Dolphins that would make Spygate look even more trivial than it is. Okay, I am saying he's a hypocrite.

8. Baseball stuff: Love the C. Montague Schilling signing, obviously. The price is right, the expectations aren't high, and yet this is guy who was the No. 2 postseason starter for a championship team. It's the definition of win-win. I really got a kick out of Shaughnessy's column on Schilling's return, too. I'm not saying the compliments were insincere, but I'm pretty sure he typed the thing backhanded . . . Happy to see Orlando Cabrera win his second career Gold Glove; he's steady and spectacular, a much more worthy choice than the usual rangeless alternative . . . Youk was a deserving winner as well, but I'm a bit chapped (copyright: Dale Arnold) that Coco Crisp was overlooked. He's better than Torii Hunter at this point, and he's much more fearless than Grady Sizemore . . . Here's what I know about John Russell, the new Pittsburgh Pirates manager: He caught one of Nolan Ryan's seven no-hitters; he was a no-field, no-hit catcher for my Maine Guides in the late-'80s; and his wife at the time (I think they're divorced now) was absolutely the hottest woman I had seen in my life until that point. She was a blonde who looked and dressed like she strolled right off Malibu Beach, and having grown up in Bath, Maine, where the girls' idea of skimpy clothing was taking the sleeves off their L.L. Bean vest jacket, let's just say I'm pretty sure she caused my teenage jaw to unhinge, among other parts. I have no idea if John Russell can manage a baseball game, but he's got my respect . . . ARod's going to the Mets, isn't he?

9. He might kill me for saying this, but is there a bigger fraud in professional sports than Ray Lewis? The pile-jumping, Bible-thumping, spasming-like-Elaine Benes fool had the nerve to blame the Ravens' offense after Lewis and the Baltimore defense gave up five first-half touchdown passes in a blowout loss to the Steelers Monday night. Granted, the Baltimore offense does stink, and their blunders repeatedly gave the Steelers excellent field position. (Remember when Brian Billick was an offensive genius? Funny how he coached Randy Moss then, isn't it?) But anyone playing for a defense that gives up 35 first-half points has no right to point fingers. Lewis was once worthy of his reputation, but he talks a much better game than he plays.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Cards:

I stumbled across this unsolved mystery while searching for the Lydell Mitchell card that concluded a recent post. Notice anything unusual about this progression from '73 to '79? (Excluding '77, which I couldn't find.):













So . . . either ol' Lydell was a charter member of Hair Club for Men, he figured out some secret formula to reverse aging, or that follicly challenged cat on the '73 card is not him (and it does look like him). Any theories regarding what is going on here would be much appreciated.

(And yes, I did just spend 15 minutes analyzing the hairstyle of a '70s football player. Someday I will get the help I need.)

Baby, have you ever wondered/Wondered what ever became of me

After too many days away, you know I've got some things to say . . .

RED SOX: You know, I hate even thinking this, let alone writing it, but I'm beginning to wonder where Papi's mojo has gone. I know, today was an extreme example of his recent struggles, whiffing feebly with runners on base not once but twice late in the game, but man, it's just so damn disconcerting to see him falter in those clutch situations after absolutely owning the late innings since 2003. I may be forgetting an early-season walkoff single or some other meaningful late-inning delivery here, but the reality is he's been more mortal that superhero so far in '07. I know that is borderline blasphemous to say, but he hasn't homered at Fenway since April 21, and watching him fail to catch up to some very hittable fastballs recently, I'm beginning to wonder if something's wrong. Now, I realize it's unfair to expect someone to come through every single time, but I just miss that feeling that when he comes to the plate with the game on the line, you just know it's going to end with a moonshot, then a raised fist as he trots around first, a tossed batting helmet as he heads down the homestretch, and finally, a raucous celebration at home plate. And I know I'm not the only one who wonders where those moments have gone - even Joe Castig's voice lacked that familiar sense of optimism or anticipation when Papi was the winning run at the plate with two outs in the ninth, and he hardly sounded surprised when his final call was a dejected "Swing and a popup," rather than his old joyous standby, "David Ortiz has done it again!" I mean, he is going to do it again soon, right? . . . Julio Lugo's pea-brained attempt to swipe third base with the Sox down a run and Kevin Youkilis at the plate Saturday was the single stupidest baserunning move by a Sox player since Psycho Lyons's idiotic heyday. I suppose you can't fault him, though. He's been on base so infrequently this season that I'm surprised he actually ran in the right direction . . . The Red Sox have scored 26 runs in their last nine games, Papi and Manny just completed a month in which they combined for 23 RBIs and looked less like the reincarnation of Gehrig and Ruth and more like the modern-day Maas and Meulens, and if the Yankees weren't actually living up to a certain chant, we might be in full panic mode about this June semi-swoon. While you have to chalk it up to a bad month (the Sox went 13-14), a malaise that afflicts even the best teams over the long season, there has to be some level of concern here, even considering their relatively comfortable lead in the American League East. And the more I consider the strengths and weaknesses of this team heading into the All-Star break, the more convinced I become that they need to add another big bat to the lineup. So I ask: Would you go after Mark Teixeira? And what would you give up? Provided he returns to his .959-OPS form after returning from his quad injury, I say they should at least try to swing a deal with Texas, and while I'd hope Theo would hang up the phone Rangers GM Jon Daniels mentions Clay Buchholz's name, I'd give serious consideration to giving up Michael Bowden, and I might even listen to an offer for Jon Lester, gambling that once Teixeira got to Boston, he'd love the atmosphere enough that he'd want to stay after his contract expires following next season . . . So, assuming Lugo continues his quest to have the worst offensive season of any player in at least 10 years, what are the alternatives at shortstop? Omar Vizquel? He's 40 years old, has a wretched .594 OPS, and is known to be something of a clubhouse lawyer. I'll pass. Jed Lowrie? He's having a fine season in Portland after a slow start, but let's see him reach Triple A first before we anoint him the savior. Ed Rogers? Bobby Scales? Spike Owen? Yep, something tells me it's going to be Lugo with an increased dose of Alex Cora, and if the $36 Million Flop doesn't start looking like a major leaguer soon, Theo will be addressing the shortstop position for the fourth consecutive offseason . . . Call me a conspiracy theorist, but considering Curt Schilling apparent annoyance with the way the front office is handling his injury, I'm wondering if there's more going on here. To put it another way, I'm not so sure that there isn't more concern about his conditioning in general than the condition of his shoulder . . . Given what the Baseball America junkies have told us about his roadrunner (beep-beep!) speed, it seemed appropriate that Jacoby Ellsbury's first big league hit was a basically a routine grounder that he legged out after a moment's hesitation by the shortstop. The kid looks like a jittery rookie right now (admit it, the Sox have missed Coco Crisp in center the past two days), but it's always fun to catch a first glimpse of a player whom you're pretty sure will be a big part of the future.

CELTICS: Now, about that other Boston team in the news lately, and no, I don't mean the Bruins and their acquisition of journeyman goalie Manny Fernandez. I'm talking about the Runnin' Grousbecks, of course, and how fascinating it has been to gauge the national reaction to Danny Ainge's acquisition of Ray Allen for first-rounder Jeff Green, Delonte West, and Wally Szczerbiak's leftover limbs. If I recall correctly, Sports Illustrated's Ian Thomsen and Jack McCallum loved the deal for Boston (and there's no one I respect more than McCallum), ESPN stat dude John Hollinger hated it, and Bill Simmons seemed to talk himself into it as his Draft Diary progressed. My take? Well, my initial reaction was that it was a panic move, that Ainge was desperate to do something to A) appease Paul Pierce and B) save his own hindquarters, and so he brought in a 32-year-old guard with two gimpy ankles and the inability to guard Denzel Washington, let alone actual NBA players. But then I remembered just how much I liked watching Allen shoot the ball - seriously, there hasn't been anyone with a smoother J since Dale Ellis - and the thought of him, Pierce and Al Jefferson (or, I almost hope, Kevin Garnett) playing together sounded like, well, fun. And we all know that fun hasn't exactly been in abundance at the New Garden in recent years. I'm still not sure it was a particularly shrewd move for the franchise's long-term health, but at least the Celtics are going to be interesting next season, and for now, I guess I consider that progress.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



While playing 148 games at shortstop for the 1988 Philadelphia Phillies, Mr. Jeltz here batted a robust .187 in 379 at-bats, while slugging a mighty .237. So, yes, there have been modern shortstop who have been as atrocious for a full season as Lugo has been for half of one. I just hope Jeltz isn't signed to a six-year, $60 million deal by Theo next winter.

* * *

Quickie links to stuff we wrote: The FOXSports column is here (and be sure to tune in this coming Friday - I think I might go after a certain Calm-Eyed Captain in the Bronx), and here's a shorter piece I wrote for Sunday's edition of Red Sox GameDay. As always, we appreciate the clicks, and while my work schedule is nuts the next few weeks (at least by my couch potato standards), I have a couple of posts planned that I'm looking forward to writing, including a midseason report card. So be sure to check in, and as always, thanks for your patience. Really, you're a saint.

Weekend update

A few table scraps while waiting for the Yankees to claim J.C. Romero . . .


• Heard a lot of yowling from the hindsight specialists on 'EEI this afternoon that Theo Epstein made an egregious mistake by not taking up Curt Schilling on his offer to pitch for a mere $13 million dollars next season. Can't say I'm surprised at the banshees' reactionary outcry, considering that Schilling's masterpiece against the A's Thursday was the best pitching performance we've seen around here since . . . well, probably since Derek Lowe's no-hitter in 2002. (No offense, Pedro.) But for those who are yelping that the Sox should sign Schilling now, it might be time for a reality check. Schilling is going to be 41 years old in November, he struggled mightily in the second half last season, and while his cumulative numbers (6-2, 3.49 ERA) are very good, it's worth noting that he's battled inconsistency, particularly against the Yankees. Of course I hope he pitches well enough the rest of the season to warrant a new deal here, and I'm certain that his threat to test free agency would prove empty should he receive a reasonable offer from the Red Sox. But that does not mean it's not prudent of the front office to wait and see if he can make it through the season as an effective big-league pitcher before committing to him for the next one.

• One more thing about Schilling: You had to find it amusing that the Yankees, according to the New York Times' Tyler Kepner, hooted and hollered like they'd just won something important after watching Shannon Stewart bust up Schilling's no-hitter. We all know that Schilling is a polarizing personality who won't be winning any league-wide popularity contests (remember Ed Wade's infamous quote: "He's a horse every fifth day and horse's --- the other four"). But this sure looks like further proof that the conventional wisdom is wrong and the Sox-Yanks rivalry really does mean as much to the players as it does the fans. I also can't help but wonder how Johnny Damon reacted during the whole thing, considering his wife and Mrs. Schilling weren't exactly sorority sisters during Damon's days in Boston.

• If you ever wondered why Mike Lowell is universally acknowledged as one of baseball's good guys, consider this anecdote from Peter Gammons:

On April 20, Courtney Butcher of Worcester, Mass., a freshman at the University of New Hampshire, called her father, Jim, to talk about the Monster seats Jim had purchased for the family for the Sunday night game. Lowell was her favorite player. That night, right after Courtney talked to her father, she and three friends were killed in an automobile accident. That Sunday night, Jim took his other children to the game. In the 4-HR inning, Lowell's shot went right to the Butcher family.

The next day, a friend of the family called Sarah Stevenson of the Red Sox, who relayed the message to Lowell, and he signed a uniform with these words: "Courtney, May God Be With You, Rest in Peace." He also sent word to Jim Butcher that he would homer for Courtney. The wake was that Tuesday, April 24, and Lowell's uniform was draped over Courtney's coffin. That night, he homered against the Blue Jays.

• In the 2003 MLB amateur draft, the Red Sox selected Baylor outfielder David Murphy with the 17th pick in the first round. Two picks later, the Arizona Diamondbacks plucked the other player the Sox reportedly considered, University of California first baseman Conor Jackson. While Murphy, now at Pawtucket, has plodded through the Sox system and projects as a fourth outfielder in the big leagues, the highly regarded Jackson has emerged as an everyday player in Arizona, putting up a respectable .817 OPS this season. My point? In my usual roundabout way, I have two: 1) The Sox probably took the wrong guy. 2) The hype surrounding this week's MLB draft LIVE ON ESPN2!!!! was ridiculous. Half of the kids taken in the first round will never be heard from again unless you live in a Double A city. No one knows if their favorite team took the next Murphy, Jackson, or Danny Goodwin, and they won't for a few years. Which is why, despite ESPN's typically over-the-top coverage, this will never be a Big Event on the scale of the NFL or NBA drafts. Leave it in the agate type, where it belongs.

• Congratulations go out to Roger Clemens-Waldman, who pitched well enough in six innings today to qualify for a quality start. Goodness gracious, give that man a raise! Now, if you don't mind, could someone please let me know when the disingenuous oaf is done with this tuneup b.s. and decides to start earning his $4.5 million monthly stipend against actual major league lineups? Excepting Jason Bay, the Pittsburgh Pirates might as well be the Nashville Sounds.

• This dreadful Julio Lugo experience makes me realize just how much I wish they'd re-signed Orlando Cabrera and avoided this aggravating annual game of Mediocre Shortstop Roulette. Full confession: Yeah, I did think Edgar Renteria would be an upgrade. But that doesn't mean I wanted to see Cabrera go.

• As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


From Saturday's AP story on the draft:

Former outfielder Kevin Romine had both of his sons taken on the first day: California high school catcher Austin Romine went to the New York Yankees in the second round, while brother, Andrew, a shortstop for Arizona State, was taken by the Los Angeles Angels in the fifth round.

Wait a minute . . . Kevin Romine is old enough to have two kids drafted? Man, as if I didn't feel like I was on the fast track to geezerhood already. I was almost sure he was still buried in Pawtucket, playing with Randy Kutcher, LaSchelle Tarver, Dana Williams, and Pat Dodson (and David Murphy, I suppose) and waiting for that elusive break.

26 down, one to . . . doh!

Well, I've gotta assume you're checking out a certain other blog to get the real scoop on what went down this afternoon in Oakland. Then again, we can't imagine Curtis Montague Schilling will peck out anything on his keyboard tonight that will be more telling than this quote he offered in the immediate aftermath of his near no-hitter:

"With two outs I was sure I had it," the 40-year-old Schilling said. "I shook off [Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek] and now I'll have to deal with a 'what-if' the rest of my life."

Yup, that about sums it up. He was one out away from the first no-hitter in the 425 starts in his distinguished career. Varitek wanted a curve. Schilling went with the heat. Shannon Stewart was operating on Schilling's wavelength, and instead of becoming the third-oldest pitcher to throw a no-hitter, the Sox starter was left with his third career one-hitter and his sixth victory of the season.

Of course, once you get past the awww-shoot disappointment of missing out on something historic - and man, I was sure he was going to get it after Lowell stayed calm and got the out on that one-hopper off his midsection - the win wasn't a bad consolation prize, especially considering how aggravating the past few days have been.

They needed this one, if only to ease the minds of the panic mongers among us. While I remain convinced that the Sox will win the AL East this season, and probably with relative ease, their recent slump (five losses in six games) coupled with the Yankees' sudden signs of life was enough to hit me with the same feeling I had after Asante Samuel's interception gave the Patriots a 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship game: Yeah, this fat lead is great . . . so why don't I think it's enough?

Maddeningly, in losing four straight for the first time this season, the Sox offense had been tamed by retread Joe Kennedy, not to mention Lenny DiNardo, who held the Sox scoreless Tuesday despite looking every bit as uninspiring as he did in his three seasons as roster fodder in Boston. The theory that the Sox's deep pitching staff would prevent extended losing streaks is a popular one, but it's proven little more than an empty cliche on those days when the offense strings together a bunch of zeroes on the scoreboard. Sure, Papi's first-inning homer stood up today, but the Sox aren't going to get a one-hit masterpiece every day. It's time for Manny to go on a power tear, time for Lugo, Crisp, and Drew to do something at the plate to justify their baseball existence. It's time to start scoring some runs again.

Today was about Schilling and his terrific, nearly historic, pitching performance. Here's hoping the next few days, we're talking about some outstanding hitting, too.

* * *
One more thing I just wanted to share. This comes from an online Q&A by Rangers beat writer Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The question concerned the possibility of the Rangers trading slugger Mark Teixeira. I thought Grant's reply was funny in a dude-step-away-from-the-crack-pipe sort of way.

The Rangers may be able to take advantage of the New York Yankees' current desperation. The Yankees, fighting for their lives, have no first baseman to speak of right now and if they are going to make a run at Boston, Teixeira's bat would be a huge addition. If the Yankees are willing to include Philip Hughes in trade talks, well, the Rangers might be more receptive to answering the phone. But you can bet that the minute the Rangers hear from the Yankees, they will let Boston know, just in case the Red Sox want to acquire Teixeira to keep him from the Yankees. I think I'm on record saying a dream package would be lefty Jon Lester, first baseman Kevin Youkilis and center field prospect Jacoby Ellsbury. There is no impetus for Boston to consider something like that – unless they decide they need to keep Teixeira out of the Yankees' hands.

Wait, so let me get this straight. To keep Teixeira "out of the Yankees hands," the Sox might consider giving up Youkilis, Lester, and Ellsbury for the 27-year-old slugger of some accomplishment, albeit one who comes with one glaring red flag: His contract is up after next season and he is represented by Scott Boras, who almost always takes his players to free agency. So to tally this up, the Sox would get a year-and-a-half of Teixeira for their starting first baseman (a 28-year-old who happens to have a higher OPS than his Texas counterpart at the moment), an extremely talented and poised young pitcher, and the best position prospect in their organization? Well, heck, sign me up. Why not throw in Clay Buchholz, too? Get it done, Men of Theo! All right, maybe I'm going over the top with the sarcasm here, but I think Grant, even in a dream scenario, is missing the point: Because of his contract status and the track record of his representation, Teixeira doesn't have nearly the market value a player of his stature normally would. As usual, Buster Olney articulated this much better than I could when he analyzed the situation this way earlier this week:

Boras's presence in this matter, as Teixeira's agent, will cut into the first baseman's trade value even more, because any teams interested in Teixeira know that the player almost certainly will walk away as a free agent, rather than sign a long-term deal. Other teams might be more aggressive with their trade offers if they believed they had a real shot to sign Teixeira to a moderately priced extension that ties him to his new team for three or four years -- but with Boras involved, that's probably not going to happen. Boras will probably be asking for a nine-figured deal (as in, $100,000,000).

What the Rangers will probably get, then, is some tepid offers. Maybe a couple of decent young players, but almost certainly no top-flight pitching prospects -- which is what Texas needs -- because teams just don't offer up their Garzas, their Lincecums, their Lesters any more.

Right on, Buster. But they're welcome to have J.C. Romero and Joel Pineiro any time they want them.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


David Price, selected first overall by the Devil Rays today in the suddenly waaayyy overhyped MLB draft, is the first lefthanded pitcher to go No. 1 since the Yankees selected the star-crossed Brien Taylor in 1991. Here's hoping the comparison ends there and Price manages to avoid any and all life-altering fistfights.

(By the way, I'm resisting the temptation to make a joke about Taylor being scheduled to start for the Yankees this weekend. Heck, the way they're going the last few days, he'd probably end up with a win.)

The James gang

Since we got an email box full of feedback regarding our recent look at the Bill James Handbook's projections for the 2007 Red Sox, I figured we should revisit the the numbers James and the Baseball Info Solutions wizards projected for last year's Sox, and find out just how accurate they ultimately were.

One more thing: If you liked our take on this year's Handbook, check out my pal Dave D'Onofrio's James/Sox breakdown in the Concord Monitor. He did it first, starting the tradition before the 2006 season, and he does it better.

Okay, let's break it down . . .

HITTERS
Jason Varitek
Projected: .266 average, 20 homers, 75 RBIs in 492 at-bats.
Actual: .238-12-55 in 355 at-bats.
Comment: Injuries played a part, but they always do in the inevitable and rapid decline of a 30-something catcher.

Kevin Youkilis
Projected: .278-14-68 in 500 at-bats.
Actual: .279-13-72 in 569 at-bats.
Comment: Bingo.

Julio Lugo
Projected: .286-9-61, 28 steals in 597 at-bats.
Actual: .278-12-37 in 435 at-bats.
Comment: How did he drive in just 37 runs? That's an Enzo Hernandez-like ratio.

Mike Lowell
Projected: .269-16-72 in 465 at-bats.
Actual: .284-20-80 in 573 at-bats.
Comment: And I think we'd all be thrilled - and maybe a little surprised - if Lowell matches his '06 comeback numbers.

Manny Ramirez
Projected: .305-45-141 in 587 at-bats.
Actual: .321-35-102 in 449 at-bats.
Comment: It appears the sabermetric dudes are yet to come up with a variable that accounts for a hitter's unexpected late-summer vacation.

Coco Crisp
Projected: .296-13-64 in 557 at-bats.
Actual: .264-8-36 in 413 at-bats.
Comment: His inaugural Boston season was sidetracked by a broken finger, and we're still yet to see the player who was so dynamic in '04-'05 for Cleveland.

J.D. Drew
Projected: .295-25-70 in 444 at-bats.
Actual: .283-20-100 in 494 at-bats.
Comment: I'm curious why James projected 25 homers but just 70 RBIs.

David Ortiz
Projected: .289-40-132 in 589 at-bats.
Actual: .287-54-139 in 558 at-bats.
Comment: The lesson, as always: Underestimate Big Papi's power at your own risk.

Wily Mo Pena
Projected: .259-21-57 in 340 at-bats.
Actual: .301-11-42 in 276 at-bats.
Comment: The ultimate baseball tease: If he can hit .301 while whiffing in one-third of his at-bats, what might he do if he ever learns to make consistent contact?

Doug Mirabelli
Projected: .244-6-20 in 135 at-bats.
Actual: .193-6-25 in 161 at-bats.
Comment: Projections were based on him playing for the Padres. How I wish they still were.

PITCHERS
Curt Schilling
Projected: 14 wins, 7 losses, 3.31 ERA, 193 strikeouts in 190 innings.
Actual: 15-7, 3.97, 183 Ks in 204 innings.
Comment: All in all, a fairly accurate prediction of his comeback season.

Josh Beckett
Projected: 14-8, 3.42, 192 Ks in 194 innings, 17 homers allowed.
Actual: 16-11, 5.01, 158 Ks in 204 innings, 36 homers allowed.
Comment: Who would have predicted he'd allow more home runs than Manny would hit?

Julian Tavarez
Projected: 4.18 ERA in 61 innings.
Actual: 4.47 ERA in 98.6 innings.
Comment: His stats would have been worse, but he pitched well in September garbage time.

Tim Wakefield
Projected: 14-13, 4.11, 241 innings, 173 Ks.
Actual: 7-11, 4.63, 140 innings, 90 Ks.
Comment: Oddly, the projections anticipated career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts for the then-39 year old.

Jonathan Papelbon
No projection, because, dude, you just can't foresee sheer awesomeness!

Brendan Donnelly
Projected: 3.14 ERA in 62 innings.
Actual: 3.94 ERA in 64 innings.
Comment: And he'd have met his projections, darn it, had those meddling kids not caught him scuffing the ball the year before.

Mike Timlin
Projected: 3.63 ERA in 74 innings.
Actual: 4.36 ERA in 64 innings.
Comment: The former Mr. Reliable was never right in season's second half.

J.C. Romero
Projected: 4.25 ERA in 54 innings.
Actual: 6.70 ERA in 48.3 innings.
Comment: The 28/31 BB/K ratio was nearly as ghastly as the ERA.

Kyle Snyder
Projected: 4.87 ERA in 39 innings.
Actual: 6.02 ERA in 58.3 innings.
Comment: Am I wrong to think he wasn't nearly as ineffective as the numbers suggest?

2007 Red Sox preview capsule

Foul tips and other observations: Sure, there are questions that only the long summer and the grind of the schedule can answer, but on this, the most optimistic day of the sports year, we'll gladly say it with unbridled confidence: We like this team. A lot . . . The plusses? Start with the starters. Curt Schilling might look like he spent the offseason hanging out at White Castle with David Wells, but he spent the spring pumping fastballs on the black with impeccable command, and he's added a changeup that at the least will be useful. Right now, it seems the only thing that can stop him from winning 15 is carpal tunnel . . . Josh Beckett has as much raw ability as any pitcher in the AL who doesn't answer to "Yo, Johan," he's admittedly more focused and comfortable heading into year two of the Red Sox Experience, and if that filthy 83 mph changeup he's been showcasing this spring is any indication, he's finally got it through his skull that you can't survive in the AL East on fastballs alone. He's going to make John Farrell look very good . . . As for the Dice-K phenomenon, well, hell, what hasn't already been said, written and debated in the last six weeks? This is going to be a blast. The suggestion that he's Mike Mussina with a better fastball seems a reasonable one, though that tailing, screwball-like changeup is uniquely his own. I imagine he'll take his lumps now and then, particularly if he stays in the habit of leaving the ball up too often, but it's apparent that he has the stuff on the mound and off (his sunny personality has been a revelation) to live up to every last word of hype . . . While starting pitching should be the Sox's main advantage over the Yankees, it is far from their only strength . . . Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz remain the most dangerous 1-2 power punch of their generation, provided Manny doesn't suddenly quit midsummer to become a Canadian Mountie or follow some other such whim . . . Papi will try to increase his home run output for the seventh straight season (he'll do it), while Manny is just 30 homers shy of 500 (he'll get 'em) . . . Perhaps Papi will even wallops his way to the MVP award he's long deserved . . . Now that I'm past the sticker shock, I can admit I'm glad that J.D. Drew is a Red Sox. He might be the most complete player on the roster, and (crossing fingers) if he can stay healthy, he'll be the No. 5 hitter they were so desperate for a season ago . . . The bullpen should fall into place now that Jonathan Papelbon earned the season's first big save by returning to the closer role. I was intrigued by the idea as Papelbon as a starter, if only because I'd rather get 180 innings from my best pitcher instead of 80, but most other teams would sacrifice their mascot to have such a dilemma . . . The best guess here is that Brendan Donnelly will emerge as the most reliable setup guy. He certainly has the proper temperament for a late-inning, high-pressure role. The dude is intense . . . I'm not writing off Mike Timlin, either, in part because I'm pretty sure he could kill me and gut me with his bare hands. The fact that the Sox showed absolutely no hesitation in re-signing him after his September meltdown tells you they believe whatever went wrong was correctable . . . J.C Romero looked rejuventated this spring, though the fact that the Sox are carrying three lefties tells you they're not sure they have one they can trust . . . Which brings us to our concerns . . . No. 1 on our list is No. 33 in your program . . . At age 35, can Jason Varitek bounce back from an injury-plagued and ineffective (.238) season? History says no, with little room for argument . . . Even if he struggles at the plate - and his bat looked slug-slow this spring - he's something of an asset because of his defense, knowledge of the pitchers, and the fact that the decomposing Doug Mirabelli is the alternative . . . We also must wonder if Mike Lowell's feeble second half is a sign of an offensive decline . . . If Dustin Pedroia can prove the doubters wrong at one more level . . . If Julio Lugo will show us why the Sox front office long coveted a player whose production doesn't really justify the admiration . . . If Coco Crisp, hitting his prime at 27, will be the dynamic player he was in his final two years in Cleveland, and not the erratic, easy out he too often was in his disappointing Boston debut . . . But hey, every team in baseball has questions (see: Carl Pavano, Opening Day starter), and the Red Sox have fewer than most. Besides, it's bad form to fret and complain today. Winter is gone, the Red Sox are back, and anything seems possible.

Breakthrough player: Beckett. The trade will look a lot better after this season than it did after the last one.

Honorable mention: Dice-K. Is it really a breakthrough if we expect it? . . . Devern Hansack: Strike-throwing machine will be a factor in the bullpen before season is through . . . Pedroia: Loretta was the media's buddy, but let's admit it: he was a singles hitter with no range. The bar isn't set that high . . . Kason Gabbard: If Jon Lester doesn't eventually seize Julian Tavarez's spot in the rotation, this Francona favorite just might.

Breakdown player: Varitek. I do hope I'm wrong about this . . . but I don't think I am.

Dishonorable mention: Lowell: There's a reason the Sox shopped him around in the offseason. It's called selling high . . . Drew: His history suggests we must be concerned, but hopefully, he'll pull a Molitor and be healthier in his 30s than he was in his 20s.

Completely random Bill James stat: Wily Mo Pena had the longest average home run in the American League last season at 411 feet.

Bonus stat: Schilling tied Chicago's Jon Garland for the league lead in doubles allowed (51).

Bonus bonus stat: Kevin Youkilis led the league in pitches per plate appearance (4.43) and was second in pitches seen at 3,009. Cleveland's Grady Sizemore saw 3,019.

And what the hell, one more: Beckett led the league in pitches at 95 MPH or faster (1.072), which tells you all you need to know.

. . . and finally, a prediction: 95 wins, 67 losses, 2d in AL East, AL wild card winner, and several nights of October intrigue.

Grilling season

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free Manny-owned appliances for you . . .

1. Well, since the Twins weren't giving up Joe Nathan and the Yankees are yet to make Mariano Rivera available, I guess this is the next-best thing, right? Returning Jonathan Papelbon to the role in which he dominated like no other Sox closer since . . . well, who, the Monster? . . . makes plenty of sense even if you do detect a whiff of panic, for it solves a big problem while creating a much smaller one in the starting rotation. (One I think Tito is convinced Kason Gabbard will eventually fill.) I have to admit, though, I'm a bit disappointed that Papelbon won't be starting. I was giddy over the thought of having a trio of 26-year-old potential aces surrounding Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield in the rotation, and it seems to me the Sox's greatest advantage over the Yankees coming into the season was starting pitching. I had Papelbon penciled in for 16-18 wins and 200 Ks. I guess 40 saves and a lot less late-inning stress will be an acceptable consolation prize. (And yes, we are pretending that we have no concerns about his shoulder's ability to handle the burden. Let's just move on, okay?)

2. I've caught myself rubbernecking at Schilling's 38-car pileup of a blog (yeah, I know . . . pot, kettle, black) the last few days, and mark my words, he's going to write something that causes a *^&$storm in the clubhouse, and sooner rather than later. Just today, he took an unbecoming shot at Bob Tewksbury, who's about as controversial as vanilla ice cream, revealed that "John" would be closing, and answered a question about a long-ago incident with Scott Williamson that A) made no sense, and B) sure read like a guilty man's revision of history. Yeah, I suppose we should have known he'd be as self-important behind the keyboard as he is in front of a microphone.

3. Let's see, since pissing away the AFC title game, the Patriots have: retained their ballhawking young cornerback whom everyone thought would bolt for the biggest bucks as a free agent; signed the best linebacker available, one who happens to perfectly fit their defensive system; acquired three intriguing wide receivers, each of whom brings a different skill-set to the huddle; signed a blocking tight end and a versatile backup running back; and vastly improved their team without trading either of their first-round picks. So I have to ask: Is it possible to actually surpass a best-case scenario?

4. As far as I can tell, there have been four worthwhile NBA season-inside books through the years. 1) "The Breaks of the Game," David Halberstam (about the the transitional late '70s Blazers, with plenty of Halberstam's patented big-picture wisdom). 2) ":07 Seconds or Less," Jack McCallum (about last year's Suns, a fun read but comes up slightly short in the insight/juicy details department). 3) "Unfinished Business," McCallum (about the 1990-91 Celtics, it's worth it for the comedic stylings of Kevin McHale alone). 4) "The Short Season: A Diary of the 1977-78 Boston Celtics," John Powers (a winning look at a surprisingly terrible team, but one that did not lack for characters). If you've got a fifth to add to this list, well hell, let me know, because I'd love to read it.

5. For the record, I have no problem with the Official Muse Of TATB's increasing aversion to clothing . . . well, other than the fact that the pictures tend to melt me until I'm nothing more than a puddle and a pair of tube socks. But I'm guessing you knew that. In a related note, when the hell is "The Office" coming back with a new episode? It's been so long, if Roy did indeed live up to his vow to kill Jim, ol' Halpert's probably been reincarnated by now. I'm suddenly finding myself spending my Beesly-free Thursdays watching "American Idol" for the first time, and frankly, I'm not all that comfortable with that. But it is addictive, you develop your favorites, and I'm pulling for the beatbox kid, Blake. He nailed that Keane song a few weeks back. And Sanjaya . . . yikes. Step away from the curling iron, son. I think he's the hermaphrodite child Michael Jackson never had. I honestly don't understand why the voters haven't sent this tone-deaf Peter Pan back to Neverland already.


6. Yep, I'm convinced. Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to be worth every digit on his paycheck. As if his ability to throw four above-average pitches at varying speeds to the exact spot Jason Varitek places his mitt isn't enough to convince us he'll be an ace from Day 1, then Varitek's complete inability to mask his admiration (is awe too strong a word?) for Dice-K is evidence enough of his elite talent. I cannot wait.

7. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm assuming that Donny Marshall will not be with Fox Sports New England for long. The former UConn star and NBA vagabond is nothing less than outstanding as Tommy Heinsohn's stand-in and, more often, as a studio analyst on the Celtics broadcasts. Marshall is refreshingly candid in critiquing his former peers, such as when he noted recently that Desmond Mason, a capable enough scorer, actually has a reputation for clogging up his team's offense because he insists on posting up all the time despite being just 6-foot-5. It was exactly the kind of insight I want to hear from a former player. You'd have to think one of the networks at some point is going to catch on to Marshall's talent and swipe him away.

8. Seriously, f you didn't laugh at the whole "Hi, this is Manny Ramirez. Check out this kickin' grill!" episode, then you are taking your time here way too seriously, my friend. (And that goes double for that bloated bag o' gas John Dennis, who actually spent moments of his life trying to find out if Manny was violating any eBay rules, for no other reason than to stir up more faux-controversial nonsense) This whole situation was classic Manny, and I mean that in the good sense. Why not enjoy it? (And I'm still laughing at his response the other day to a question about the closing situation: "Not my department." Again: Classic Manny. I sure am going to miss the goof when he returns to his native planet.)

9. Allen Ray, Brian Scalabrine, and Rajon Rondo combined to play 64 minutes against the Bobcats without scoring a single point. Consider those numbers again: Sixty-four minutes. Zero points. Nah, Doc's not tanking a thing.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Because sometimes it really is random.

Analyzing Bill James's Red Sox projections, Part 2

Because Dale and Holley are no doubt desperate for a topic to crib for today's show, we're back with some Sox projections from the Bill James Handbook. Today, the pitchers . . .

STARTING ROTATION
Curt Schilling
12-8 3.50 ERA, 177 Ks in 180 innings
Looks like James expects Schilling's age (and girth) to cause him to visit the disabled list once or twice. Given that Schilling has failed to pitch 180 innings only twice since 1996 - in 2003 (broken hand) and 2005 (bloody sock aftermath), I like the odds that he'll throw 200-plus innings and surpass these numbers.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
27-2, 1.33 ERA, 305 Ks in 256 innings, two no-hitters, Cy Young, MVP, World Series MVP, Academy Award winner
Damn, looks like James believes the hype and then some. I guess Dice-K really is going to make us forget all about Pedr . . . oh, all right, I admit it: I made those numbers up. There's no projection for Dice-K, for obvious reasons, though I do think it's worth noting that in his first season stateside, at age 26, Hideo Nomo went 13-6 with 2.54 ERA, whiffing 236 in 191.3 innings while allowing just 124 hits. If Matsuzaka could pitch as well for the Sox as his countryman did for the Dodgers a dozen years ago, I think we'd all be satisfied.

Josh Beckett
13-10, 3.68, 191 Ks in 208 innings
Let's put it this way: If Beckett pitches 208 innings with a 3.68 ERA, he's winning a hell of a lot more than 13 games.

Jonathan Papelbon
14-6, 2.98 ERA, 181 Ks in 184 innings
It's tough to project stats for a closer who's becoming a starter, mostly because the move is so unusual. (John Smoltz is the only recent example who comes immediately to mind.) Still, the numbers seems to favor Papelbon making the transition successfully, and the 14 wins is a comparitively high projection given that James's scale appears conservative; he has no one in either league winning 20 games. For what it's worth, I would not be shocked if Papelbon ended up being the ace of this staff. Does anyone doubt his stuff or his makeup?

Tim Wakefield
8-8 4.14 ERA, 108 Ks in 152 innings.
Wakefield, who turns 41 on August 2, is regarded as a "high injury risk," thus the 152-inning projection. But I have to wonder if that takes into account that he's a knuckleballer, an often ageless specie. Consider: at 40, Phil Niekro threw 342 innings (and went 21-20); Charlie Hough pitched 252 innings; and Tom Candiotti threw 201 innings. If he can avoid another fluke rib injury, I have doubt that Wakefield will devour 200 innings again.

BULLPEN
Joel Pineiro
7-9, 4.50 ERA in 92 Ks in 144 innings.
This one should be disregarded - the numbers are based on Pineiro starting for Seattle, not relieving for Boston. He has looked like he's throwing the ball with some bite lately, so maybe this low-risk move will have some reward, if not necessarily a high one.

Brendan Donnelly
3.41 ERA, 64 Ks in 66 innings
Mark it down: The cantankerous ex-Angel is your opening day closer . . . though you, me, and Tito are hoping the Sox won't need one at all in Kansas City.

Mike Timlin
3.86 ERA, 46 Ks in 70 innings
The nagging strained oblique muscle isn't exactly an encouraging sign that last year's woes are behind him.

Julian Tavarez
4.56 ERA, 43 Ks in 75 innings
I actually get a kick out of Manny's completely insane personal spokesman, though I'd like him more if he didn't accumulate most of his highlights during garbage time.

J.C. Romero
4.40 ERA, 36 Ks, 24 BBs in 44 innings
Twenty-four walks in 44 innings? Yep, this talented hothead is the leader in the clubhouse for the title of Reliever Who Is Going to Have Me Cursing At The TV While Simultaneously Sucker-Punching The Cat. Should be a good time.

Manny Delcarmen
3.88 ERA, 77 Ks in 78 innings
The K-rate is certainly encouraging, and if the pride of Hyde Park can just harness his high-grade stuff a little more often, he could really become an integral part of the bullpen in the late innings. Yes, I'm glad he (and Craig Hansen) were dealbreakers in the rumored Todd Helton swap. (FYI: There is no projection for Hansen.)

Kyle Snyder
4.84 ERA, 51 Ks in 80 innings, 97 hits allowed
The Sox could do worse for a spot starter/mopup man, though I really don't want to see Bronson Arroyo With A Pituitary Problem pitch 80 innings unless half of them are at Pawtucket.

Nine innings: 03.01.07

Playing nine innings while begging Matt White for a couple million bucks, or at least a few rocks . . .


1. Manny's in camp. He's in fantastic shape, to the point that he looks like he could go 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs if the season started today. And the ever-present goofy smile on his face confirms Official Manny Spokesman Julian Tavarez's claim that he's content being a member of the Boston Red Sox. So I have to ask: do we really need to spend any more words on this nonsense, at least until someone gets on-the-record confirmation of what actually happened last August? The snide, innuendo-laden hatchet jobs just get so damn old.


2. I'm giddy with anticipation for Daisuke Matsuzaka's Red Sox debut tonight, and no, I don't care that it's against freakin' Boston College; he could be facing the Saugus Little Leaguers at this point, and after all these months of devouring the hype, intrigue, and grainy YouTube footage, I'd still be geeked to watch him finally take the mound in a Red Sox jersey. Which brings me to a particularly pressing question for baseball fans everywhere: Where, exactly, do you take Dice-K in your fantasy league draft? I'm convinced he's going no later than the second round of the 11-team, semi-high-stakes league I'm in with some work buddies - hell, I might just be the one to pull the trigger. Yeah, I think he's going to be that good, though I suppose I should watch him pitch against someone other than an Atlantic Coast Conference also-ran before I proclaim him the Cy Young frontrunner.

3. It's not exactly a reenactment of the Bronx Zoo, but a Sox fan had to chuckle at the melodrama surrounding the Yankees earlier this spring. Mariano Rivera surprised everyone by speaking publicly about his disappointment over not being signed beyond this season. Gary Sheffield, classy as always, ripped Joe Torre from afar, while Randy Johnson, surly as always, blamed everyone in New York but himself for his failure to make it there. What else? Let's see . . . Bernie Williams refused to depart as gracefully as he played, Stanford tough guy Mike Mussina called out Porcelain Carl Pavano, and Georgie Porgie kept such a low profile that the suspicion is growing that there's a Weekend At Bernie's situation going on here. Geez, and here we thought Brian Cashman had restored some level of sanity to the franchise.

4. Oh, and as for the devastating news that Jeter and A-Rod no longer have sleepovers? The supposed feud is blown way out of proportion. While they may not quite be Best Friends Forever, we here at TATB have it on good authority that they still get together every few weeks to make S'mores, slather each other in Driven and purple lipstick, gossip and giggle about the cute boys on other big league teams, and braid each other's hair. It's quite sweet, really.

5. I'd be a lot more concerned about the Sox's wait-and-see approach to Curt Schilling's request for an extension if he didn't look like he was hiding the other four members of the starting rotation under his shirt.

6. All right, dear readers, I've got an assignment for you. (Don't worry, this time it doesn't involve the Elephant Walk.) I'm looking for a couple good baseball and NBA books to add to my sports library, and other than the recent Clemente bio, I'm having a tough time finding anything interesting I haven't already read. So if you've got a second, shoot me an email or peck a few words in the comments with your suggestions and favorites, old or new, best-sellers or obscurities. And for the record, I've obviously got several copies of this masterpiece already.

7. A three-item Patriots interlude: 1) I'm going to be bummed if they don't get Ole Miss linebacker Patrick Willis in the first round. He's a perfect fit for the system, and if you are familiar with his backstory, you know his maturity and work ethic is beyond reproach. 2) Some fortunate team (Denver?) is going to be getting a very good football player in Daniel Graham. He's a better receiver than he gets credit for, in part because he had the dropsies early in his career and the reputation stuck, and in part because he sacrificed his own numbers for the betterment of the team. Graham's the best blocking tight end the Patriots have had since Lin Dawson, he was respected by his coaches and teammates, and he'll be missed even if Dave Thomas does prove to be a capable replacement. 3) Randy Moss to the Pats? Intriguing on some level, but I suspect the odds of it happening are about the same as Belichick signing ass-capped loudmouth Joey Porter: slim, but not quite none.

8. I'm not going to get all Simmonsy on you and disingenuously pretend that three Saturdays spent slobbering over Greg Oden and Kevin Durant have made me a Bilas-level expert on college hoops, but I will say this: Dick Vitale (and inadvertently, Billy Donovan) confirmed what I've thought all along, that Al Horford is going to be a far superior pro to Joakim Noah. In terms of size and skill, Horford is a classic NBA power forward, and he's only getting better. Noah? He plays passionately and he's a clever interior passer, but his shot is a mess and I'm not sure he's going to be able to rebound in the NBA. To put it another way: If the ping-pong balls fail the Celtics again and they somehow end up taking Noah at No. 3, I'm giving the *%& up.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Sure, we all see President Dubya and The Mick and the handiwork of a crazed Topps photoshopper, but this card is really about what you don't see. Rumor has it that just outside the frame on the right, A-Rod is standing in the on-deck circle, flipping Jeter the bird as a single tear rolls down his perfectly exfoliated cheek. (C'mon, you knew we were kidding before! They don't make S'mores! They hate each other!)

Wiener roast

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free Coney Island hot dogs for you . . .


1. The more I see of Kevin (37 and 23) Durant, the more I pray that M.L. Rivers and the Celtics keep Paul Pierce locked up in a broom closet until this season is safely tanked. Since few free agents consider Boston a worthwhile destination, the only chance to break free from this cycle of mediocrity is to hit it big in the lottery. and with Texas freshman Durant, a breathtaking amalgam of Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady, and game-changing Ohio State big man Greg Oden likely available this spring, now is the time to win by losing.

2. What's happened to Ted Johnson is beyond tragic, and judging by his doctor's ominous words, this story is only going to get worse. But even as I sympathize with a man whose life has been shattered by the culture of football, I can't help but think that more of his plight is self-inflicted than he's willing or able to admit. After all, Johnson is blaming Bill Belichick for altering his career and his life by forcing him to practice with a concussion in 2002 . . . yet earlier this year, Johnson expressed frustration that the Patriots didn't sign him after Junior Seau was lost for the season.
I suppose we have to chalk up such contradictory illogic to the sad fact that his brain has been rattled beyond repair.

3. Mike Ditka and a few other notable former players have been on a media crusade this week, demanding drastic improvements in the pension program and the medical and financial benefits for the NFL's alumni. It's certainly a worthy cause, for there are many more Ted Johnsons out there whose lives have been devastated by the aftereffects of their violent occupation. But it must be noted that there is a certain amount of ironic hypocrisy in all of this. Had the NFL Players' Union shown any kind of unity during the strikes of '82 and '87, the players who crossed those picket lines and didn't consider the future would be living better lives today.

4. Speaking of Seau, it kind of felt like he was the Special Guest Star to this Patriots season - it was fun to add such a famous face to the cast, but we knew, given his age and injury history, that his stay was probably only temporary. I bring this up because I kind of forgot about him after his injury . . . yet, in rehashing the Pats/Colts game in my mind over the last week, it kind of dawned on me that his presence might have made a huge difference in the second half of that game. Not only did he outplay Tedy Bruschi against the run earlier this season, but he was far and away the teams best linebacker in pass coverage, particularly against tight ends in the seam. I can't help but think that had he not Theismanned his arm all those weeks ago, we'd never have heard of Bryan Fletcher.

5. Words to mark: Todd Helton will be batting second and playing first base for the Boston Red Sox on opening day. Pay no mind to that jabbering Rockies owner - the fact that Colorado was willing to pick up half of the $90 million remaining on his deal tells you all you need to know about the ball club's desperation to get a deal done. Kudos to the Sox for refusing to part with Manny Delcarmen or Craig Hansen. They'll get this thing done in the spring, on their terms.

6. Curt Schilling's Sign Me Now Or Lose Me Later antics are remarkably similar to the routine Pedro Martinez pulled three springs ago. I'm glad both Shaughnessy and Seth Mnookin called the disingenuous windbag out on it.

7. It's a good thing the Bruins are completely irrelevant, or someone with some clout might start noticing that the Joe Thornton trade will go down as one of the absolute worst in Boston sports history. Maybe once Brad Stuart is traded for a sack of pucks and a couple of fourth-liners, those who applauded this trade will come forth and admit their idiocy.

8. For the first time as far as I can tell, ESPN allowed comments on a Bill Simmons column yesterday . . . and man, it didn't take long for it to quickly escalate into a highly entertaining, Deadspin-fueled evisceration of all things World Wide Leader. I'm thinking ESPN is probably going to go back to the drawing board here. At any rate, it made me appreciate the handful of regular commenters here, who by and large piss me off only when they make my point more eloquently than I do.

9. All right, Officephiles, answer me this: What in the name of Mose Schrute was Pam up to last night? Those lunchroom conversations with Jim and Karen were just plain weird, and even after (obsessive nerd alert!) checking out a couple of Office fan sites last night, I'm still not quite sure what was happening there. Was she trying to flirt with Jim (and failing miserably) with that whole REM thing, of which there certainly were suggestive undertones? Why was she so distracted while Karen was pigeonholing her, and why did it seem she was trying to act that way? Is she just frustrated and lonely and on the verge of a breakdown . . . or worse, getting back together with Roy? And if she's trying to send Jim signals that she digs him, well, why doesn't she just come out and say it? Answers, people. I need 'em now. Next Thursday is too far away.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


No relation to the horse.

As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free incarcerated Bengals for you . . .


1. Allen Iverson, guard, Boston Celtics? I reluctantly approve such a notion, if only for entertainment's sake; the Answer's reckless/relentless style of play would be a treat to watch up close, though I fear all the lumps his scrawny body has absorbed through the years will lead to an accelerated decline. There is one caveat to my approval, however: If Gerald Green's name comes up in any discussion with the Sixers, I plead with Danny Ainge to hang up the phone and wait for Billy King to humbly call back with a more reasonable request. They can have Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair, and even Big Al if his exclusion is a deal-breaker. Just don't give up Green. He has rare physical talent, a picturesque jump shot, and you can see he's figuring it out with each minute of playing time Doc Rivers awards him. I'd rather watch him grow into an elite talent than watch a current elite talent like Iverson begin to age.

2. Is Doug Mirabelli the only person on the planet with the mad skills to catch a knuckleball? I'm beginning to think so, since the Sox are apparently kicking around the thought of bringing him back one more time to caddy for Tim Wakefield. This is, of course, a ridiculously pea-brained idea. Mirabelli was washed up two years ago, and he's a well-known pain in the Assenmacher on top of it all. I say it's about time Jason Varitek sucked it up and caught Wakefield, and if that's not an option, then bring in Sandy Alomar Jr., whom I believe caught Tom Candiotti in Cleveland way back in the deadball era. Sure, Alomar may be calcified at this point - I think he's actually older than Sandy Alomar Sr. - but really, can he be any worse than Mirabelli?

3. So now the versatile Don Davis is done for the year, the 11th Patriot to be placed in injured reserve this season, and Belichick's troops are suddenly so thin at linebacker that one more injury (knock on wood) would be nothing short of devastating to their defense. Hell, the situation is pretty dire already. How dire? Paging Roman Phifer . . . Roman Phifer, please report to the front desk . . . Hey, even though ol' No. 95 is now two years into retirement, I can think of worse options. (See: Beisel, Monty).

4. In a related note, I'd gladly welcome Junior Seau back for a second tour with the Patriots in '07, though it should be as a backup since it would be prudent to start getting younger at the position. (I still contend that Kamerion Wimbley, the Browns' stellar rookie linebacker, was their No. 1 target in the last draft, though that Maroney kid wasn't a bad consolation prize.) Even Seau's most ardent detractors had to be won over by his inspired and reliable play before his gruesome injury, and he seemed to really relish the Patriot atmosphere.

5. Apparently, hypocrisy is an intangible. From the fellas at Fire Joe Morgan:

Does anyone still wonder why we are tough on Derek Jeter for not standing up for ARod this past year?

Here's a recent article where Derek Jeter talks about ARod:

Recently, the Yankees Captain has been hit with some misguided criticism that he should come out stronger in his defense of Alex Rodriguez . . .

"That's exactly what I said," Jeter calmly explained. "I said the only thing I wasn't going to do was tell the fans who they should boo and who they shouldn't boo."

And here's an article from 2005 where Derek Jeter talks about Jason Giambi:

Then Jeter took the opportunity to stand up for Giambi, who was booed so loudly after he struck out in the eighth inning it was hard to hear public address announced Bob Sheppard announce the next hitter. Jeter implored Yankees fans to stop booing Giambi.

"The fans have to start cheering for him," Jeter said. "If you're a Yankee fan, you want us to win and we need Jason."

One more time: 2006, re: ARod:

"I said the only thing I wasn't going to do was tell the fans who they should boo and who they shouldn't boo."

And 2005, in re: Giambi:

Jeter implored Yankees fans to stop booing Giambi. "The fans have to start cheering for him," Jeter said. "If you're a Yankee fan, you want us to win and we need Jason."

The end.

Seriously, that is just awesome. Fist pump!

6. If I'm Theo Epstein, I keep dialing up Jim Bowden and badgering him about a Wily Mo Pena-for-Chad Cordero swap until the Nats' GM either changes his number or gives in. While a straight-up swap probably isn't reasonable - the Sox would have to kick in at least a pitching prospect or two - it's not completely illogical from the Nats' standpoint. Bowden reportedly has a fondness for Pena dating back to their time in Cincinnati together, Washington desperately needs some sock in the middle of their Soriano-less order, and while Cordero is already a proven closer at age 25, he's something of a luxury to a Nationals team that is so flawed that it probably won't have a whole lot of leads for him to protect.

7. Forget the insane money given to such mediocrities as Gil Meche, Juan Pierre, and Gary Matthews Jr. The leader in the clubhouse for Bleepin' Stupidest Signing Of The Offseason is the Chicago Cubs for the three-year, $20 million deal they gave Jason Marquis today. Yes, that Jason Marquis - the one who was quite possibly the worst pitcher in the NL this season (6.20 ERA, led the league in homers allowed) and has a reputation of disregarding the advice of everyone but the voices in his own thick head. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan must be having a good laugh about this one.

8. I finally found the analogy I was looking for: Pam Beesley is this generation's Bailey Quarters, and if you know what I'm talking about, I know you're nodding your head in agreement. And with our obligatory "The Office" mention out of the way, here are some words from a certain stellar TV show of its time that might just stick in your head for the rest of the day: Baby, if you've ever wondered/Wondered what ever became of me . . . Go ahead, sing it. Resistance is futile.

9. Curt Schilling says he's learning some Japanese so he can communicate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. I suppose it's an honorable gesture, though I'm suddenly curious if there's a Japanese word for "windbag."

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Who knew the current Boomer Wells wasn't the original? You know, I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume the two aren't related.

Roster bonus

It's 10:21 p.m. on the eve of December, and at this precise moment the thermometer tells me it's sixty-three bleepin' degrees outside. Did I mention I live in Wells, Maine, where there are usually penguins waddling around in my driveway this time of year? Or that I just came inside from shooting hoops in my driveway in a t-shirt and shorts? At 10 p.m. in freakin' November? Dude, I love global warming!

Anyway, this ridiculously unseasonable weather has me thinking about when all the nights are warm (okay, most of them) and the baseball is again in the air at Fenway. It feels like there should be a game tonight . . . yet once glance at the roster jolts you back to the cold reality of the long days ahead, for the 2007 Red Sox are far from being ready to play ball.

So here's my question to you, homies: When all the transactions have been completed and all of Steve Phillips's scoops have been proven idiotic, what will the Red Sox's opening day roster look like? Here's my best guess, with this disclaimer: Don't hold it against me five months from now. I've got to believe Theo's working on some moves that none of us have considered yet. Actually, let me rephrase that: I hope he's working on some moves that none of us have considered . . . because I'm not too thrilled with the ones we know he is considering. Anyway, here's my 25 . . .

THE LINEUP
SS Julio Lugo
We saw him 19 times a year for, what, five years with the Devil Rays? And never once did I catch myself thinking, "Damn, I'd love to have that Lugo in Boston someday." Are we sure Theo isn't confusing him with Carl Crawford or something?

CF Coco Crisp
He gets a mulligan for his Boston debut - he was just never right after busting his finger. He'll be better in the No. 2 slot, and better in his second season.

DH David Ortiz
It's an insult to the hitter he's become to suggest he'll suffer without Manny. Papi will be fine - on the field and off.

RF J.D. Drew
I'm with Ryan. What's the fascination, Theo? I know the skill-set and the OPS is appealing . . . but damn, it's time to start giving consideration again to a player's mental makeup. I'm tired of watching this supposedly progressive front office throw multimillion contracts to well-known Cowardly Lions who will shrivel under the scrutiny.

LF Wily Mo Pena
His numbers were impressive (.301, 11 homers in 276 at-bats). His power is astounding. So why does he seem like such an easy out?

1B Adrian Gonzalez
Sox have always coveted the former overall No. 1 pick - they nearly plucked him from Texas two years ago - and he'll arrive in the swap for Manny. Quietly had a heck of a breakout season at age 24, particularly given his home park, and is an excellent first baseman. I like him, despite the price.

3B Mike Lowell
I'm skeptical that he'll replicate his bounce-back season at the plate, but the Sox have never had a third baseman with better hands. He'll be an asset again.

C Jason Varitek
It'd be nice if they could sign a backup competent enough to reduce the aging captain's workload to 125-130 games. (Gregg Zaun would have been ideal.) That way, his bat might not be dead by August.

2B Dustin Pedroia
I'm not seeing what they see. Me, I'm seeing Brent Abernathy.

STARTERS
Daisuke Matsuzaka
They'll get the deal with devil (Boras) done, though Lucchino wouldn't be my first choice as designated diplomat. And I can't wait to watch him pitch.

Jonathan Papelbon
Please let his shoulder be healthy . . . please let his shoulder be healthy . . .

Josh Beckett
I trust he's matured after taking so many lumps last season. He'll win 17, minimum, with a sub-4.00 ERA . . . and even on his best days, I'll still catch myself wishing Hanley Ramirez were still one of ours.

Curt Schilling
Considering he famously stirred the *&$* and urged Philly fans to boo J.D. Drew years ago, it's pretty damn hypocritical of him to call out Ryan for wondering why the Sox would be interested in the wildly unpopular outfielder. Schilling will always have a place in my heart for 2004, but I think I'd like him even more if he were born mute.

Tim Wakefield
Can you believe he's going to be 41 this season? Oh, to have mastery of a knuckleball.

RELIEVERS
Scott Linebrink
While I really hope my man Edes is onto something with tonight's Jake Peavy-for-Manny rumor, I fret that Linebrink is the pitcher they'll get instead. While his numbers the last three years are excellent, I'm skeptical of any twice-discarded relief pitcher who rejuvenates his career in San Diego.

Mike Timlin
Even after his collapse last season - check out that alarmingly miniscule K-rate - he's worth a flyer. Have you looked at the pathetic list of free-agent relievers?

Manny Delcarmen
He needs to take the next step, or the pride of Hyde Park may find himself in another organization soon. Here's hoping he gets command of that great stuff and becomes the power arm in the setup role the Sox desperately need.

Hideki Okajima
The Japanese Mike Myers? I can live with that.

Julian Tavarez
Well, at least he makes it interesting, and he's not a bad option as a swingman. Wonder who he'll sucker punch this year.

The Reliever For Whom Kevin Youkilis Is Traded
Just a wild hunch here. Theo has to be up to something off the radar, right? And I think it's possible that Youkilis (whose OPS was .001 lower than some dude named Millar's) will be dealt before he's exposed as Just Another Guy. Think Billy Beane still has his "Moneyball" man-crush? I'd gladly accept Justin Duchscherer in return.

BENCH
Alex Cora
Not much of a stick, but his versatility and smarts make him the best utility player the Sox have had in my lifetime. (What, you prefer Jack Brohamer?)

Eric Hinske
Should be a more than serviceable bat off the bench, though he showed nothing after coming over from Toronto.

David Murphy
Fifth outfielder, setting the stage for a 10-year career as the next Ricky Ledee.

Trot Nixon
Yeah, like he's not going to accept arbitration. I cannot believe Dirty Helmet is going to be here and Manny is not. Sometimes I hate sports.

Mike Lieberthal
Wishful thinking? You try finding a decent backup catcher on this list. Heaven help us, there's a chance Mirabelli might be back, isn't there?

IN THE MIX
Bryce Cox, RP
I'm convinced he'll contribute before Craig Hansen will - in fact, I think he's going to be a huge factor this year.

Devern Hansack, RP
Really knows how to pitch, and has better stuff than a lot of established arms. I'm a believer.

Craig Hansen, RP
I think he'll be fine with time . . . but where's that electric slider we heard so much about coming out of St. John's?

* * *

Well, whaddaya say? Agree with all 25? Think I'm getting dumber by the day? Will they sign Eric Gagne? Trade for Andruw Jones? Have at it in the comments, dopes. If you need me, I'll be at the beach.