TATB Live: Sox vs. '62 Mets

The rain has stopped after a half-hour delay, the Sox have taken the field, A-Rod has finally arrived after a delightful afternoon with a worn-out peroxide case at the Foxy Lady . . . and I've got the laptop, the clicker, and am fully prepared to be glued to the couch for the next three hours. So let's play ball already. But before we get this thing going, a few quick thoughts:

• The Sox's lead over the Yankees in the American League East is 13.5 entering tonight. Come Sunday night, here's hoping it's at 16.5 and Joe Torre wakes up Monday morning to learn that the classy New York tabloids are demanding Georgie Porgie roll some heads. Sox fans have been waiting a lot of years to spend a nice summer without concerning ourselves with the Yankees. Don't waste the opportunity now - win tonight, win tomorrow, blow 'em out Sunday, and stick a fork in 'em for the rest of the year. Who needs the drama besides the 'EEI banshees?

• I always think of Tim Wakefield as something of a Yankee killer, perhaps because of his efforts in the 2003 and '04 postseasons (Aaron Boone excepted), but he has a 7.84 ERA against the Bombers this season and has won something like one of his last eight starts against them. My point: Now would be a real good time to start living up to his reputation.

• I'm beginning to realize that Derek Jeter's barely concealed disdain for A-Rod actually reflects pretty well on the captain. Who knew that judging a person's character was an intangible?

All right, to the ol' ballyard . . .

FIRST INNING
. . . and while we're still writing pecking out our lame intro, the Yankees go 1-2-3, with Mike Lowell throwing out Captain Jetes on play right out of the Brooks Robinson Gold Glove Handbook. Not a bad start for Knucksie.

Here's one of those wasted early opportunities that sometimes come back to haunt you. The Sox load the bases with two outs on a walk by Papi, a single by Manny, and another walk to the rotting corpse of J.D. Drew, but Lowell grounds to One-Step Range Jeter to get Chien-Ming Wang off the hook. Seems to me he's one of those guys who tends to settle down if you don't get to him early, so this might be one we're lamenting later.

SECOND INNING
Tom Werner is seated alongside Christie Brinkley. If they're actually a couple, then that's a major upgrade from Katie Couric. In baseball terms, that's like trading Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson.

A-Rod's leading off the inning. Surprisingly, he does not come to the plate to the strains of Motley Crue's "Girls, Girls, Girls." He works a walk. By the way, would it be cruel to suggest that Mrs. A-Rod is a first-team member of the Butterface All-Stars? ("Yeah, dude, her body's hot, but her face . . .") It would be? Okay, then let's just say A-Rod always does what he can to ensure he's the prettiest one in the room.

Wakefield is threatening to turn this one into a blowout early, and not the way we'd hoped. After A-Rod's walk, he whiffs Jorge Posada, but Robinson Cano, one of the main culprits in the Yankees' offensive underachievement, cranks one into the rightfield seats to make it 2-0, Yankees. Bobby Abreu (the Yankees' version of J.D. Drew) then doinks one off the wall, and Wakefield walks the next three hitters (including Benedict Damon with the bases loaded), to make it 3-0, Last-Place Team. Fortunately, Jeter hits into a 6-4-3 double-play on the first pitch he sees to limit the damage. Intangibles!

Dustin Pedroia pokes a double to right, putting runners at second and third with one out, and I have to admit the little feller is winning me over. I still wonder how he gets away with swinging like a righthanded-hitting Reggie Jackson up there, but what's going on with him right now seems to follow the pattern of his entire career dating back to college: he struggles at first in adjusting to each new level, but eventually he gets comfortable and becomes a very productive hitter.

After Julio Lugo plates Coco Crisp with an RBI groundout to cut the lead to 3-1, Kevin Youkilis works a walk after taking a ball three that everyone in the ballpark the home plate umpire thought was a strike. That's the kind of respect you get when you're hitting .354 and have a 22-game hitting streak. Papi, who has jokingly referred to himself as Ichiro during his recent power outage (16 games without a homer), Suzukis one to left to score Pedroia. Then Manny follows with one of his patented yup-he's-locked-in ropes to right to load the bases, pulling his incredulous how-did-you-not-score? comedy routine when he sees Youkilis still standing at third. Unfortunately, Manny is probably right in wondering why DeMarlo Hale didn't take a chance, considering that Drew is up next, and Drew pops to third to kill the rally, just as you, me, and Manny expected he would do.


THIRD INNING
One out, and here's A-Rod again. Got an email from a reader this morning suggesting Dr. Charles and the Red Sox production team should play the snippet of the seagulls from "Finding Nemo" chirping "Mine! Mine! Mine!" on the scoreboard every time he prances to the plate. I suppose I'm not doing it justice if you haven't seen the movie, but hey, I thought it was a clever idea. However, the Sox fans in the third base boxes apparently had their own creative ways of taunting A-Rod tonight - there are a lot of dudes wearing masks with a blonde woman's face. Whatever it takes, I guess. Of course, the best way to get to him is to make him look like a fool on the field, and Manny does just that, playing A-Rod's wall ball perfectly and making his trademark, oddly effective quick-release throw to nail him by five feet at second. It must have been a long walk back to the dugout, though at least he got to check out what he must have thought were some hottie blondes on the way. Anyway, it's an easy inning for Wakefield.

Doug Mirabelli is now a sizzling 2-for-his-last-23 after singling to left past A-Rod (still checking out the masked blondes) and Jeter (still shooting hate lasers at A-Rod). Crisp, who reached on a fielder's choice and swiped second, holds up at third, and the Sox have something brewing.

Pedroia, a gritty, gutty little gamer whom you'll recall I've championed all along, doubles to left, and it's 3-3. Also, Hideki Matsui plays left field like he's blindfolded. Just thought I should mention that.

Don Orsillo, my favorite vinyl-covered automaton, mentions a stat that everyone's been repeating the past few days . . . and damned if its not one that's worth repeating again. When Roger Clemens gave Suzyn Waldman the most pleasure she's had in years by - goodness gracious! - showing up in Steinbrenner's box, the Yankees were 5.5 games back of the Sox. Four weeks later, they're 13.5 back, which means they've lost two games per week in the standings since the Rocket's announcement. Man, I do love that stat.

FOURTH INNING
So I abandon my post here at the keyboard for a minute to help Mrs. TATB put the kids to bed, and I come back just in time to see the Yankees, with the bases loaded already, take a 4-3 lead on a wild pitch. Time to get Wakefield out of there, and don't let me ever mistake him for a Yankee killer again.

Wakefield's still in there, one out, and the Yankees lead, 6-3, now. I rarely have a beef with just about anything Terry Francona does, but seriously, what's he waiting for? It's apparent that Wakefield doesn't have it tonight, and worse, it's one of those nights where, typical of a struggling knuckleballer, he's giving away runs (he's walked in one, another scored on a wild pitch, a third on a passed ball). Don't let this one get out of hand. Get Kyle Snyder in there.

And after another walk . . . here's Snyder, about four batters too late. I knew he was pitching well, but I have to admit, I didn't realize he had a 1.53 ERA. Not too shabby for a long reliever.

Snyder hits A-Rod (unintentionally, we're sad to report), bringing up Posada, who promptly rips a three-run double into the left-field gap, blowing this one open at 9-3. It's a six-run inning, the Yankees have batted around, and Wakefield ends up charged with eight runs in 3 2/3 innings. Not quite what we had in mind at the beginning of the night.

An eight-pitch inning for Wang, who's helped by Manny double-play grounder, his team-high, Rice-in-'87-like ninth of the season. Drew also grounds to second. At this point, he should change his number from 7 to 4-3.

FIFTH INNING
Uh-oh. Lowell, who was hit by a pitch earlier in the game, is replaced by Eric Hinske. Given that Lowell leads the Sox in homers and RBIs, it's fair to say his absence for any length of time would be damaging. Here's hoping it's just precautionary.

I keep hearing how Bobby Abreu looks indifferent at best these days, but man, I don't think the Sox have gotten him out since he came over from the Phillies. He just clanged his second double of the night off the wall. And who said the Yankees weren't hitting, anyway?

Just as Lloyd Bridges once picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue, I apparently picked a bad day to start liveblogging the Sox. (Snyder just walked Melky Cabrera, the Yankees' seventh freakin' free-pass of the night.) So we're going to change gears a little bit here if/until the Sox get back into the game and comment on a few peripheral Sox-Yankees items.

• Seems like every time I read about one of Mike Timlin's rehab appearances at Pawtucket, he's giving up a run and a couple of hits per inning, which has done nothing to alter my suspicion that he's cooked. I appreciate him for all he did from 2003-05 (he was as guilty as anyone for what happened last August, IMO), but it's because of those watercolor memories that I worry Francona will be tempted to use him in crucial situations, something he hasn't been able to handle for some time now. I'm not saying I think he should hang it up . . . but it might not be the worst thing, just to save Tito from the temptation.

• Looks like Jason Giambi might be done for the season after injuring his foot "circling the bases" against the Blue Jays. I'm guessing "circling the bases" is a euphemism for A) "getting his foot shattered by a Selig henchman" or B) "sticking the needle in so far that it chipped a bone," but the way he was going, this might be a blessing for the Yankees anyway. It gives them the chance to play Cabrera regularly in the outfield while DHing Damon, Abreu, or Matsui, which probably makes them a better defensive team while keeping the old dudes' legs reasonably fresh.

• Is it me, or has Jerry Remy seriously toned down the pimping of his RemDawg trinkets this season? Wonder if he got a talking-to from Dr. Charles. Probably woke up one morning to find Wally the Green Monster's severed head in his bed.

• I don't care what he low K-rate suggests. If Wang can stay healthy - and judging by his minor-league track record, that's a big if - he can be a very successful pitcher for years to come. That sinker is an incredibly effective out-pitch, and it's not like he's a slopballer - his radar-gun readings reach the mid-'90s. I'm not going to hold it against him because he's uncommonly efficient.

• Papi's on pace for 29 homers. That's hardly lousy, but it makes you wonder how much those hamstrings are bothering him.

• After Wakefield's performance tonight, I officially consider Julian Tavarez the fourth starter.

• I usually forget to mention these things here, but while I think of it, my latest column on FOXsports.com is up, just as it is every Friday. Check it out if you get the chance.

• Quick note from the game: Torre just got tossed after the third-base ump blantantly blew it and called Bobby Abreu out on an attempted steal of third. My question is this: Why's he stealing third in a 9-3 game? That strikes me as something A-Rod would do. Also, Drew has left the game with a hamstring strain. There are no words for what a flop he has been so far.

• Even though he has just six fewer RBIs (31) at the moment than he had all of last year, I still don't get the Sox front office's fascination with Julio Lugo. He's played better than expected at short, but he's a mediocre offensive player who isn't getting on base nearly enough from the leadoff spot. Tell me again what was wrong with Orlando Cabrera?

Well, we're in the eighth now, it's still 9-3, Yankees, Remy and Orsillo are getting giggly, and it looks like the Sox lead over New York will be 12.5 in tomorrow's newspapers. I guess that 16.5 thing isn't going to happen after all. But I do want to mention, before I sign off for the night (assuming there is no miracle comeback in the works), that even if the Yankees sweep this series and cut the Sox lead to 10.5, I am entirely convinced that the Sox will win the American League East this season. There is zero chance that the Yankees can re-enact their comeback of '78, for one reason more than any other: Terry Francona is a far superior manager to Don Zimmer. He knows how to handle a pitching staff and manipulate a bench, he doesn't bury quality players with petty grudges, and he'll pace his regulars over the course of the season so they aren't deep-fried come September. Futher, this Sox team is much more well-rounded than the '78 crew that had a fearsome lineup, no bench (see: Frank Duffy), and a mediocre starting rotation after The Eck, while these Yankees, with their endless pitching question marks and aging core, are vastly inferior to the Guidry-Gossage-Reggie club that went 100-63 that season. The only people that think this severely flawed Yankees team has a chance to make up 12.5 games over the Red Sox in the coming months are the same ones who refuse to admit that the events of October, 2004 changed the dynamic in this rivalry forever. The Sox are better, and assuming there is no deluge of injuries, the final standings will confirm as much.


Postscript:As Remy just noted, things just got interesting for the rest of the weekend. With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Youkilis just got drilled in the shoulder by Scott Proctor (pitching for the 2,838th straight game), and Youks, who extended his hitting streak to 23 earlier in the game and thus probably figures he shouldn't have to put up with such b.s., started heading toward Proctor as the benches emptied. Proctor was ejected immediately, arguing the dismissal vehemently, and it appeared Posada was trying to convince Youkilis that the near-beaning was accidental and not retaliation for Cano getting hit in the top half of the inning. Whether it was intentional or accidental, it's fair to say that the odds of A-Rod getting a faceful of Varitek's glove tomorrow just increased exponentially.

Analyzing Bill James's Red Sox projections, Part 2

Because Dale and Holley are no doubt desperate for a topic to crib for today's show, we're back with some Sox projections from the Bill James Handbook. Today, the pitchers . . .

STARTING ROTATION
Curt Schilling
12-8 3.50 ERA, 177 Ks in 180 innings
Looks like James expects Schilling's age (and girth) to cause him to visit the disabled list once or twice. Given that Schilling has failed to pitch 180 innings only twice since 1996 - in 2003 (broken hand) and 2005 (bloody sock aftermath), I like the odds that he'll throw 200-plus innings and surpass these numbers.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
27-2, 1.33 ERA, 305 Ks in 256 innings, two no-hitters, Cy Young, MVP, World Series MVP, Academy Award winner
Damn, looks like James believes the hype and then some. I guess Dice-K really is going to make us forget all about Pedr . . . oh, all right, I admit it: I made those numbers up. There's no projection for Dice-K, for obvious reasons, though I do think it's worth noting that in his first season stateside, at age 26, Hideo Nomo went 13-6 with 2.54 ERA, whiffing 236 in 191.3 innings while allowing just 124 hits. If Matsuzaka could pitch as well for the Sox as his countryman did for the Dodgers a dozen years ago, I think we'd all be satisfied.

Josh Beckett
13-10, 3.68, 191 Ks in 208 innings
Let's put it this way: If Beckett pitches 208 innings with a 3.68 ERA, he's winning a hell of a lot more than 13 games.

Jonathan Papelbon
14-6, 2.98 ERA, 181 Ks in 184 innings
It's tough to project stats for a closer who's becoming a starter, mostly because the move is so unusual. (John Smoltz is the only recent example who comes immediately to mind.) Still, the numbers seems to favor Papelbon making the transition successfully, and the 14 wins is a comparitively high projection given that James's scale appears conservative; he has no one in either league winning 20 games. For what it's worth, I would not be shocked if Papelbon ended up being the ace of this staff. Does anyone doubt his stuff or his makeup?

Tim Wakefield
8-8 4.14 ERA, 108 Ks in 152 innings.
Wakefield, who turns 41 on August 2, is regarded as a "high injury risk," thus the 152-inning projection. But I have to wonder if that takes into account that he's a knuckleballer, an often ageless specie. Consider: at 40, Phil Niekro threw 342 innings (and went 21-20); Charlie Hough pitched 252 innings; and Tom Candiotti threw 201 innings. If he can avoid another fluke rib injury, I have doubt that Wakefield will devour 200 innings again.

BULLPEN
Joel Pineiro
7-9, 4.50 ERA in 92 Ks in 144 innings.
This one should be disregarded - the numbers are based on Pineiro starting for Seattle, not relieving for Boston. He has looked like he's throwing the ball with some bite lately, so maybe this low-risk move will have some reward, if not necessarily a high one.

Brendan Donnelly
3.41 ERA, 64 Ks in 66 innings
Mark it down: The cantankerous ex-Angel is your opening day closer . . . though you, me, and Tito are hoping the Sox won't need one at all in Kansas City.

Mike Timlin
3.86 ERA, 46 Ks in 70 innings
The nagging strained oblique muscle isn't exactly an encouraging sign that last year's woes are behind him.

Julian Tavarez
4.56 ERA, 43 Ks in 75 innings
I actually get a kick out of Manny's completely insane personal spokesman, though I'd like him more if he didn't accumulate most of his highlights during garbage time.

J.C. Romero
4.40 ERA, 36 Ks, 24 BBs in 44 innings
Twenty-four walks in 44 innings? Yep, this talented hothead is the leader in the clubhouse for the title of Reliever Who Is Going to Have Me Cursing At The TV While Simultaneously Sucker-Punching The Cat. Should be a good time.

Manny Delcarmen
3.88 ERA, 77 Ks in 78 innings
The K-rate is certainly encouraging, and if the pride of Hyde Park can just harness his high-grade stuff a little more often, he could really become an integral part of the bullpen in the late innings. Yes, I'm glad he (and Craig Hansen) were dealbreakers in the rumored Todd Helton swap. (FYI: There is no projection for Hansen.)

Kyle Snyder
4.84 ERA, 51 Ks in 80 innings, 97 hits allowed
The Sox could do worse for a spot starter/mopup man, though I really don't want to see Bronson Arroyo With A Pituitary Problem pitch 80 innings unless half of them are at Pawtucket.

Closed for the summer

Appropriate ending when you think about it, what with circumstances conspiring to ruin something potentially memorable one last time. I could be talking about the small picture of Game 162 (Mother Nature washing out Devern Hansack's improbable no-hit bid) or the big picture of all 162 games (an ER's worth of ill-timed injuries derailing a bid for a fourth consecutive playoff berth). And of course, both the season and its finale ended sooner than we expected.

So now we must speak of this 86-win, third-place bummer of a season in the past tense. And while we'll save our deeper analysis and crackpot theories about What Went Wrong for another rainy day, let's spend a few words on the remaining players who made this season what it was, for better or worse:

CATCHERS
Jason Varitek.238, 12 HRs, 55 RBIs: Catchers notoriously decline offensively at age 32, and Varitek followed the well-worn pattern this season; he can't hit a good pitching anymore, and ideally, he'd bat eighth or ninth in the lineup at this point. But Lord, how he was missed when he was knocked out for a month by a knee problem. He's still a stalwart defensively, calls a good game and commands respect, and is worth every penny of his contract even when he's flailing at an eye-high fastball.

Doug Mirabelli.193-6-25: He was washed up last year . . . and yet I bet I Doug Mirabelli still thinks the Sox trade of Cla Meredith and Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli and Doug Mirabelli's massive ego was a fantastic trade for the Red Sox. Yes, Doug Mirabelli brings new meaning to the phrase "tool of ignorance."

DESIGNATED HITTER
David Ortiz .287-54-137: What else can be said? When the games mattered, he made sure DH stood for Designated Hero. And when the season was lost, his successful bid to set the single-season franchise homer mark gave us reason to cheer again. When Papi's around, it's always a blast. Please don't take him for granted, because he's a once-in-a-fan's-lifetime gift.

INFIELDERS
Kevin Youkilis .279-13-72: He was so steady that it was easy to forget that this was really his first full season - and on top of establishing himself as an everyday player, he made the transition from third base to first with remarkable grace. The Eck noted tonight he thought Youks played Gold Glove defense. Given his immensely valuable ability to work the count and wear down pitchers, The Greek . . . er, Jewish God of Walks should be the leadoff hitter next season. Now if he'd just stop bitching after every called strike . . .

Mark Loretta .285-5-59: He's about as exciting as vanilla ice cream, he has the range of your grandmother's walker, and the stragglers from the Jeff Frye Admiration Society tend to exaggerate his contributions . . . yet he had his share of late-inning highlights, he catches everything hit his way and turns two with grace and precision, and he's still a tough out even though he's primarily a singles hitter these days. My verdict: Sign him for one more year, if he's willing, and let Pedroia shorten that swing down in Pawtucket.

Alex Gonzalez.255-9-50: I'm sorry, but he won't win the Gold Glove. Didn't you get the memo from McCarver? This is the year to fete Captain Jetes for all his excellent years in anonymity, and he's going to collect this award (among others) despite the fact that Gonzalez is the best defensive shortstop in the AL since Omar Vizquel had all his hair. It was a treat to watch him and Lowell turn the left side of the infield into Web Gem Central, and despite his particle board bat, I hope he's back in Boston next season if the price is right.

Mike Lowell .284-20-80: The best defensive third baseman the Sox have had since Butch Hobson (oh, c'mon, he was my boyhood hero; cut me some slack, people). Seriously, he was Gold Glove-worthy (as are Beltre, Crede, and Chavez), and while he was streaky, his final numbers at the plate are perfectly acceptable. I have a slight concern that he'll have a hard time repeating this output next season, but if the Sox keep Manny and get a legit No. 5 hitter, he won't be asked to do so much.

Alex Cora .238-1-18: He's bright, versatile, and despite a punchless offensive season, he's exactly what you want in a utility infielder. Keep him, I say.

Dustin Pedroia .191-2-7: Some see him as David Eckstein. Others as a young Jody Reed. So far, all I've seen is Brett Abernathy.

Carlos Pena .273-1-3: The Sox should have brought him in instead of J.T. Snow in the first place.

OUTFIELDERS
Manny Ramirez: .321-35-102: I plan on getting into the Manny Situation more in a future episode, so for now I'll leave it at this: If, during one of his patented midsummer tears next season for the Mets or Angels or whichever team the Sox award him to over the winter, some smug dinkus of a Boston sportscaster has the nerve to say, "Why can't we get players like that?" after spending the better part of six seasons trying to drive Manny away, well, I might just have to drive into Boston just to pull said sportscaster's hair plugs out with my bare hands.

Coco Crisp .264-8-36: So at least we know the truth: He was never healthy. I remember how wowed I was by him in spring training and during his pre-injury debut against the Rangers - he was electric - and despite the belief that he's no leadoff hitter, I hope he gets a second season to show his stuff in Boston. He deserves that much.

Trot Nixon .268-8-52: All right . . . I'll miss him. A little. If only for sentimentality's sake. His tenure with the Sox dates back to my college years, he did bust his ass and try to do the right thing, and as Roger Clemens and Rich Harden can attest, he had his moments in the clutch through the years. And of course, he was One of The 25, delivering the game-breaking hit in the World Series clincher. But the truth is that he's crumbled into an injury prone, underproductive, overpaid over-30 albatross, just the kind of player the Sox should be trying to distance themselves from. Trot was the Mike Greenwell of his era, albeit with an extra branch or two on the family tree, and like Greenie before him, his popularity outweighed his productivity near the end. It's time to tip the dirty hat and say goodbye.

Wily Mo Pena .301-11-42: It pains me to say this, because I was in agreement with the Arroyo deal and enjoyed watching Pena's occasional moonshots, but . . . I hope they trade him in the offseason. I have major doubts that he's ever going to develop the plate discipline and pitch-recognition skills to be a consistent hitter; he often looks as if he's made up his mind to swing before the pitch is delivered. And defensively, he reminds me of Kevin Mitchell circa '96, which means I cover my eyes, hope for the best, and usually witness the worst when the ball is hit his way.

Gabe Kapler .254-2-12: I hope he's still reporting to work at Fenway next season - as Eck's backup analyst on the pre- and post-game shows.

David Murphy .227-1-2: Eh. I can live with him as a fourth outfielder, but I'm skeptical that he'll develop enough power to justify a regular role for a playoff contender.

Eric Hinske .288-1-5: This year's version of Butch Huskey, an alleged slugger picked up late in the season who makes a habit of whiffing in crucial situations. But as a patient switch-hitter who historically mashes righties, he should be a useful stick off the bench next season.

STARTING PITCHERS
Curt Schilling 15-7, 3,97 ERA: He wasn't, as the song goes, as good as he once was, going six weeks without a win and developing a maddening habit of letting small leads slip away in the middle innings. But in the context of his lost 2005 season, 15 wins is a hell of a comeback.

Josh Beckett 16-11, 5.01: Greg Maddux once said the more trouble he is in, the slower he pitches, meaning he uses the hitters' aggressiveness against them. Something tells me Boston's version of Nuke LaLoosh would grunt and call Maddux a *&*%* for believing in that that philosophy. He needs to grow up and learn to pitch rather than throw, or the names Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez could haunt the Red Sox front office honchos the way Derek Lowe and Varitek did Woody Woodward.

Tim Wakefield 7-11, 4.63: The Sox dearly missed his bullpen-saving ability to eat multiple innings at a 4-something ERA clip, but now that he's 40 and coming off his first injury in years, it's time to start thinking about him as a fifth starter rather than as a third or fourth.

Julian Tavarez 5-4, 4.47: If the Sox were beginning the playoffs this week, he'd likely be your No. 3 starter. Chew on that for a moment.

Matt Clement 5-5, 6.61: I can't help but remember Gammons floating a notion at around this point last season that the Sox and Dodgers should consider a Clement for D-Lowe swap. How I wish they had.

Jon Lester 7-2, 4.76: We're all rooting for a victory more important than any he'll ever achieve on the ballfield. Get well, kid.

Jonathan Papelbon 4-2, 0.92, 35 saves: The Sox's collapse and his season-ending shoulder scare have cost Papelbon some of the plaudits he deserves for his historically dominant rookie season, and that's too bad, because he may have been the team's MVP in the first half. While he was virtually unhittable as a closer, at least until he grew weary late in the season, I'm glad the Sox are moving him to the rotation, if only because I'm a believer that it's wiser to use your best pitcher for 200 innings rather than 60. It will likely keep his arm in better condition, too. Prediction: Papelbon wins 17 games next season and is a better starter than any of the Zitos and Schmidts available as a free agent over the winter.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Keith Foulke 3-1, 4.35: Every season, there are always a few seemingly washed-up relievers who, for a variety of reasons, enjoy a major career rejuvenation. (Think: Wickman, Bob, and Jones, Todd.) I'm betting on Foulke to be one of those guys next season. I want him back.

Mike Timlin 6-6, 4..36: When you're 40 and you've pissed away the second half of the season getting lit up by the likes of Kevin Millar, it's time to start plannin' some possum huntin' expeditions for the summer months, if you get my drift.

Manny Delcarmen 2-0, 5.06: Everyone roots for the local boy to make good, but his command is too inconsistent and his fastball is too straight for Hyde Park's own to be considered anything more than a middle reliever at this point.

Craig Hansen 2-2, 6.63: Questions, I've got some questions: Where's the filthy slider that he supposedly used to torment the Big East? Have the Sox mishandled him to the point he's lost his stuff and his confidence? Is he familiar with the work of Calvin Schiraldi? He should start next season in Pawtucket with no pressure and no expectations, and work from there.

Javier Lopez: 1-0, 2.70: He doesn't throw enough strikes, and a lefty specialist who comes in and walks his lone batter is a useless as a Giambi without a chemistry set.

Kyle Snyder 4-5, 6.56: If only he hadn't sacrificed 7 miles per hour on his fastball to the blade of Dr. Andrews' knife. You can see why he was such a highly regarded prospect with Kansas City - his curveball is a legitimate out pitch, and his tailing changeup gives him decent secondary stuff - but unless he gets better command or regains a few m.p.h on the heater, he's nothing but an Arroyo wannabe.

Devern Hansack 1-1, 2.70: Well, that No-Hitter-With-An-Asterisk was certainly a hell of an audition for some role next season. Not only am I pulling for him, but having watched him pitch the Sea Dogs to the Eastern League title, I can say with a certain degree of confidence that he's got better stuff, command, and composure than quite a few established big league pitchers.

Kason Gabbard 1-3, 3.51: Another slopballing lefty who prays to the altar of Jamie Moyer. And yet . . . Jerry Remy is on record as being impressed with Gabbard, and he did pitch very well more often than not. I'm naturally skeptical of a guy who struggled for almost two full seasons in Double A, but he showed enough to earn a second job interview next spring.

OTHER SUSPECTS RUMORED TO BE PITCHERS
Mike Burns: Man, did the Pats show us something today or what? The whole Shutting Down An Offensive Juggernaut With a Shorthanded Defense was straight out of Belichick's 2003 championship blueprint, Maroney is an absolute beast, and Brady did his part to silence the shrill sky-is-falling nonsense from the Felgers of the world. Suddenly, I'm feeling very good about this team . . . and if you think I'm writing this because I wouldn't know Mike Burns if he ran off with my wife, you'd be correct.

Bryan Corey: He pitched well once earlier this season against the Sox while with Texas. So at least I can say I saw him pitch well once.

Kevin Jarvis: He didn't belong in the major leagues five years ago.

Lenny DiNardo: I'm beginning to think he has a lifetime contract as the 12th man on the staff. He's shown me nothing, and he has a World Series ring and some great tales as Bronson Arroyo's wingman to show for it.

Craig Breslow: He's better than Lopez. Then again, I think Tony Fossas would be an upgrade on both of them.

Nine innings: 07.18.06

Zipping through nine innings while hoping the tunnel ceiling stays off my head . . .


1. He's the closest thing we've ever seen to our native son Carlton Fisk, so tough and stoic and dependable that you almost forget he's not a New Englander born and bred. So it's only appropriate that Jason Varitek, the backbone of this Red Sox renaissance and the smell-the-glove symbol of the franchise's refusal to take any more crap from the pretty-boy Yankees, be the one to surpass Fisk's record of 990 games caught in a Red Sox uniform. Everyone appreciates Varitek, from the pitchers who rank ahead of his own offense at the top of his priorities list, to the manager who can't help but speak of his own player in reverent tones, to the fans who see in him play the game with the dedication and passion not of a multimillionaire star, but of a working-class grunt desperate to hang on to his dream job. He might be the most universally respected Sox player of my lifetime, and while his struggles at age 34 make you wonder just how much of a toll those 900-plus games have taken, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox without him. Hell, it's hard to remember the Red Sox without him. If that isn't a legacy to be proud of, I don't know what is.

2. Some granite-skulled electronic media nitwit - usually an underling of Ordway's - starts yelping the theory at about this time each year, and before long it becomes a common theme on the local airways: The Red Sox had better hold off the Yankees, because this is the year the wild-card doesn't come out of the East! Well, guess what? The wild-card is coming out of the East, I guarantee it. The White Sox, who have hardly looked like World Champs against the Sox and Yankees, will overtake the Tigers in the Central, most likely after fearless GM Kenny Williams makes a blockbuster deal before the deadline. I expect the Red Sox and the Yankees, with some minor pre-trade-deadline repairs, to keep rolling, and I expect the Tigers are due for some difficulties in the second half: the annual Magglio Ordonez injury, a dead arm for rookie Justin Verlander, a severe self-inflicted cigarette burn by Jim Leyland. They have been very, very good, but I want to see how they handle adversity before I give them any autumn advantage over the Yankees or either colored Sox.

3. In terms of what he's actually accomplished compared to what he acts likes he's accomplished, is there a more annoying player in baseball than Oakland's Nick Swisher? He bitches at the umpires more often than Papi and prances around with a self-satisfied smirk almost as often as Captain Jetes. What a sausage. He's really going to be insufferable once he has more than a decent half-season on the back of his baseball card.


4. I wish the Cubs would get on with their fire sale already, because I'm thinking they might deal a couple Red Sox of the near past who could benefit their old club in the immediate future. Scott Williamson - healthy again, pitching well, and with something of a postseason track record if I recall correctly - might be the ideal low-cost, high-reward addition to the Sox 'pen. Williamson could do what Tavarez and Seanez have failed to do - act as the sixth- or seventh-inning bridge to Timlin, Delcarmen and Papelbon, and get a key late-inning strikeout when the situation demands it. And the other Cub the Sox should be interested in? Why not Todd Walker? Reader Mike L. suggested this a day or so ago, and at first I didn't think it made much sense. Why would they Sox need another second baseman when they already have Loretta and Cora? But the more I thought about it, the more I liked the idea. Walker would be a terrific lefthanded stick off the bench, something the Sox could use at the moment. Further, Walker loved it here, has had nothing but wonderful things to say about Boston, and I think at least in the short term he'd embrace the role. Now, I admit, maybe sentiment is a factor here - I always felt bad that Walker, so clutch in '03 postseason despite Grady Little's idiotic insistence on platooning him with Damian Freakin' Jackson, missed out on the joy of '04. I'd like to see him come back and be a part of a team that had a shot at winning it all, and I think Walker would like that too.

5. Yes, I'm still glad they didn't re-sign him for that many years and that much cash. Yes, I still think Coco Crisp is a wiser long-term investment, even if it sometimes seems he's getting paid by the commercial. Yet . . . after watching Johnny Damon come through time and again during the Yankees' recent stretch of stellar play, I have to admit I've caught myself wondering how much larger the Red Sox' lead would be if he had resisted the forces of evil (and Steinbrenner's cold millions) and remained in Boston. Three games? Five? Seven? . . .

6. I would rather listen to that eardrum-assaulting Taylor Hicks commercial on an endless loop on my iPod than hear one more word about that freakin' World Series ball. Let it go already, fellas. Let it go.

7. If Tim Wakefield's back injury is going to be a lingering problem - and after watching him grimace his way through four innings Monday, I have to believe it will be - then Jon Lester's wild-child brilliance goes from being the feel-good film of the summer to an absolute necessity. And for all of the kid's talent, I'm not quite sure he's ready for that burden.

8. While his numerous blog posts and radio appearances, as well as excerpts in the Globe Magazine and ESPN.com, have saturated me with the juiciest details from his peek behind the doors of Fenway, I still cannot wait to read Seth Mnookin's "Feeding the Monster" from prologue to epilogue. I'm convinced, from what I've read and what I've heard, that this is the book Sox fans have been waiting for, one that offers unfiltered insight and answers lingering questions (what really made Nomar so sour? rather than offering the usual worn-out anecdotes and rehashed history. (I do wonder, however, if the title ticks off Rob Neyer any, since he wrote "Feeding the Green Monster" several years ago to much less fanfare. He does tend to get uppity about these things.)

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



Looking at Oakland's bookish manager now, you'd probably never have suspected he was once a ballplayer. Math teacher? Now that's more like it.

Summer school

Per the request of Steve R., one of TATB's Original 6 readers, I've stopped watching the Disney Channel's Boy Meets World marathon long enough to bang out this midseason report card on your first-place and eminently enjoyable Boston Red Sox. As a DVD extra, I've posted Steve's own player-by-player take in the comments section, just to get some discussion going. Feel free to add your 2 cents. In the meantime, I'll be wondering whatever happened to Fred Savage's homely, talentless kid brother . . .

THE LINEUP
Kevin Youkilis (.297, 10 homers, 43 RBIs): One of the many wise moves Tito Francona has made this season is restoring Youkilis to the leadoff spot when it was apparent Coco Crisp was still rusty. Youkilis isn't a classic leadoff hitter in the Willie Mays Hayes sense, but would you rather have a guy who runs really fast and gets on at a .320 OBP clip, or a guy like Youkilis who gets on 40 percent of the time and always seems to be trotting home ahead of a Papi blast? It doesn't take Bill James to realize you're better off with dude who gets on base more often. (Actually, maybe it does take Bill James to realize that.) Oh, yeah, and Youk's taken to this first base thing pretty well, too, hasn't he? A-

Mark Loretta (.305-3-37): He's exactly what we hoped he'd be. Loretta catches everything he can get his glove on, turns the double play as if he and Gonzalez have been playing together for years, hits to all fields (and hits good pitchers, an underrated talent), and is such a gentleman that when Tina Cervasio asks him such vapid questions as, "What do you like better, a walk-off hit or a walk-off home run?" he somehow resists rolling his eyes. Gotta like a guy like that. B+

Big Papi (.278-31-87): One of the cool things about this blogging gig is that sometimes readers remind you of something you've completely forgotten you'd written. I realized this again yesterday, when I was poking around the new Wiki project on Sons of Sam Horn, and noticed, much to my ego's delight, that in their bio of Papi (not "Pappy," Berman, you idiot) that they've included a quote from my post on this site after his walkoff homer against the Orioles last season. (About a dozen walkoffs ago, correct?) As I mentioned, I don't recall writing these words, but I think they hold up in describing his finest year yet, Joe Maddon be damned:

"He's Mo Vaughn with an uncanny knack in the clutch and no strippers-and-bacon-sandwiches baggage. He's Reggie Jackson without being an arrogant, phony $%%#@. He's Dave Henderson with more ability, more pure power, more duende. He is the greatest clutch hitter you, your dad, your granddad, and in all likelihood, your unborn children will ever see. He's Big Papi, larger than life, bigger than the biggest moments."

Yeah, that's about right. A+

Manny Ramirez (.306-24-65): I'm white. I have something of a pulpit. And while I'm only 36, my midsection suggests middle age is approaching faster than I care to admit. All of that considered, I'm afraid it's my obligation to rip Manny for not attending last night's all-important exhibition game. I don't want to be a hypocrite, mind you. Personally, I'd like to acknowledge Manny as the most consistantly great righthanded hitter I've ever seen, as a much-improved defender, as an endearing, happy-go-lucky goof whose occasional adolescent misbehavior is something I long ago accepted as part of the package. But instead, my demographics demand that I yelp and yowl and stand on my creaky soapbox and defend the Ye Grand Ole Game in front of an audience that has long since tuned me out. With all the indignance I can contrive, I must demean Manny for the Way He Disrespects The Game, even as My Beacon Of All That Is Good, the gritty and gutty Trot Nixon, airmails yet another cutoff man. It's my duty. It comes with the microphone and the Tostito gut. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go engulf another sandwich. A

Trot Nixon (.311-6-43): The batting average is lovely, but where'd the power go? Admiral Dirty Hat has as many extra-base hits as Scott Podsednik. B-

Mike Lowell (.307-11-46): The offensive resurgence has been a bonus, one very few of us expected. But the real treat in watching Lowell on a daily basis is his defense. Does he ever make a throw that's not right on the money? A-

Jason Varitek (.232-9-40): Uh-oh. Is this a prolonged slump . . . or is it the predictable decline of a catcher on the wrong side of 30? I'm not sure I want the honest answer. C-

Coco Crisp (.268-4-14): He was dazzling in that opening road trip, got hurt, and has been playing catch-up every since. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at the plate - a hand injury can really mess with your swing - but I have to admit I'm a little disappointed in his defense. He takes terrible routes to line drives in the gap, and too many seemingly catchable balls fall in front of him. I thought Johnny Damon slipped a lot last season, but last year's Damon was a better defender than this year's Crisp. C-

Alex Gonzalez (.284-5-27): All right, y'all have convinced me. He's the best defensive player ever to wear the Red Sox uniform. If he hits above .270 - and considering the overtime he's putting in with Papa Jack, I think he will - I hope the Sox keep him around beyond this season. B+

THE ROTATION
Curt Schilling (10-3, 3.60 ERA): He's not quite what he used to be - he has a maddening new habit of giving back runs right after the Sox put a few on the board - but he still defines the term "workhorse," and there's no one else I'd want on the mound in a game of consequence. Thank the baseball god above that he returned to health after his lost 2005. B+

Josh Beckett (11-4, 4.75):I expected more, which is saying something considering he's on pace to win 21 games. It's easy to forget, because of his early big-league success, that Beckett is still a kid himself, just a few months older than Jonathan Papelbon. He still has some growing to do, both as a pitcher and in terms of maturity. His knack for giving up home runs (26, or roughly one every four innings) is a mystery, but something tells me that if he can knock off the macho b.s. on the mound and start pitching rather than daring them to hit his heat, the number of baseballs leaving the ballpark will decrease rapidly. Ah, well. At least he hasn't had any blister problems. C+

Tim Wakefield (7-8, 4.05): As consistent and reliable as a knuckleballer can be. Let's hope this back flareup doesn't become a chronic hindrance, or we might suddenly realize how much some of us take him for granted. B

Jon Lester (4-0, 3.06): The 20 walks in 32.1 innings are alarming, and I'm worried about . . . ah, hell, who am I kidding? I'm as giddy as the rest of you. Not only does he have top-of-the-rotation stuff (once he sharpens his command, of course), but I'm sure I'm not the only one still blabbering about the humongous cojones the kid must have to throw David Wright a 3-2 curveball with the bases loaded. He is as good as they said. B+

Matt Clement (5-5, 6.61): He won five? Really? Here's a prediction: Clement has thrown his last straight fastball as a member of the Red Sox. John Henry will be paying the Pirates (or the Brewers . . . or the Padres . . .) to take him off our hands once he proves healthy. I'd say he never should have come to Boston in the first place - clearly he isn't made for this city, and vice versa - but I have vague recollections of a decent first half last season. Must be another hallucination. F

THE 'PEN
Jonathan Papelbon (0.59 ERA, 26 saves in 29 chances): I've run out of superlatives for this Clemens/Gossage hybrid, so let's just throw out a couple more statistics. In 46 innings, he's allowed 25 hits and walked only 8 while striking out 47. That's a hell of a Strat-O-Matic card. A+

Mike Timlin (4-0, 2.59): He's 40, his velocity is down, and his shoulder hurts. Good thing he can still get batters out just by making eye contact and scaring the living hell out of them. B-

Manny Delcarmen (1-0, 3.52): Good thing the Sox refused to include him in the Crisp/Marte deal with Cleveland. He's got a classic bullpen power arm, his 12-to-6 curveball is shaping up to be a strikeout pitch, and the likeable local boy no longer seems awestruck when he comes into the game at Fenway. I'm a believer. B

Craig Hansen (1-0, 4.63): I don't know if it's Al Nipper (I'm skeptical) or one of the minor league pitching coaches, but someone is doing fine work preparing these kids. Hansen has come along way from the raw chucker we saw during last September's desperation. He's lost most of the unnecessary kinks in his motion and repeats his delivery pitch after pitch. The result seems to be better movement on his fastball and better command of his breaking stuff. He might mean to this season what Papelbon meant last year. B-

Javier Lopez (5.40): His success against Jim Thome bodes well, but I still say they should have kept Mike Myers. C

Keith Foulke (5.63): Ignore what Johnny from Burger King says. We'll always have October 2004, and we'll always wonder if you sacrificed the rest of your career to make our baseball dreams come true. C-

Julian Tavarez (4.56): At the risk of annihilating my last shred of credibility, I think he can still help. Sure, he's nuts, but he's got a long track record of being effective, he's pitched for good teams, and his fastball still has good movement. He's not going to be your eighth-inning bridge to Paps, but there are worse alternatives. (Like the next guy . . .) D

Rudy Seanez (4.86) Just go back to the NL already and we'll pretend this inexplicable sequel never happened, 'kay?. F-

THE BENCH
Alex Cora(.300): Fast becoming known as the RemDawg's man-crush. Tito seems pretty fond of him, too, and with good reason: Cora does something every time he plays that makes you say, "Wow, that was smart." I can't think of a better utility player in Sox history. A-

Gabe Kapler (.355) It's impossible not to like Kapler, because he's one of the good ones. But I never realized I'd actually miss him as a player until enduring the Dustan Mohr experience for a couple weeks. Welcome back, indeed. B

Wily Mo Pena (.321, 4 homers): He's younger than, what, all but five current members of the Sea Dogs? Give him time and give him a chance, will ya? C

Doug Mirabelli: (.175): Congratulations to the 'EEI banshees for raising the "BAHHHHHD CAN'T CATCH A KNUCKLAH!!" panic level to the point that the Sox felt obligated to trade improving Josh Bard for Wakefield's calcified caddy. I'm still dismayed Theo found this necessary. F

Willie Harris: (.159): He should never be allowed to swing a Louisville Slugger in anger, but hey, he made a disaster-averting throw to get Gathright, his jet-pack legs have proven useful on occasion, he's versatile defensively, and his teammates adore him. What more do you want from the 25th man? C

Catching up

Quick thoughts on the Sox while my daughter takes her afternoon snooze . . .

• Oh, one day, they'll be right. One of these years, Manny Ramirez will suffer a slump that extends through the summer, and all the morning show jackasses who are quick to suggest trading the one of the most productive hitters of all time for a collection of worn-down gamers and prospects they couldn't pick out of a pack of baseball cards will almost be justified in their feeding frenzy. But after Manny's 4-homer fireworks display during the Yankees series - you could just see him getting locked in, couldn't you? - I am glad to report that such a nosedive will not occur this season. Manny is being Manny once again, and I mean that in the 45-homer, 125-RBI sense. The haters will just have to find something else to occupy their time - making ignorant fun of Wily Mo, I suppose, or wondering why Renteria bunted for a hit against the Orioles in that game a year or so ago, or dare I suggest even watching a game to its conclusion once in a while.

• Oh-fer-5 with four strikeouts? Guess there's no need to drill Big Papi now, huh, Mike Vaccaro?

• I've written a lot of idiotic things in this space, and to quote that painful Red Roof Inn commercial we're force-fed 60 times per Sox telecast, chances are better than "remote" that I'll write a lot of idiotic things in the future. But I have to admit, it's going to be a long time before I spew something as stupid as my recent comparison of Lenny DiNardo to Andy Pettitte. What can I say? Sometimes the medication fails me.

• I believe A-Rod when he claims he had no idea where the ball was during his three-run homer Tuesday night. I will say, however, that only a five-star phony of his magnitude would evoke such skepticism.

• I'm officially worried about Jason Varitek. I don't know if he's hurt (remember him hobbling down to first a few weeks back?) or if the World Baseball Classic had an adverse affect on him, but something is not right. His swing has never been Griffeyesque, but now it's downright hideous, and even mediocre pitchers are having little trouble messing up his timing. Maybe it's just a slump - probably it's just a slump - but his age equals his uniform number now, and as every study suggests, very few catchers are productive at 33 and beyond.

• You say Willie Harris, I say Donnie Sadler with slower wheels.

• I've always liked Gabe Kapler - he's probably the most articulate athlete I've ever interviewed, and he just plain gets it, as evidenced again in this morning's Bob Ryan column - but as a ballplayer, he seemed like little more than a replacement-level journeyman, someone you're always trying to upgrade upon. But after six weeks of Dustan Mohr and Willie Harris, well, thank goodness he'll return soon to remind us that a fifth outfielder can actually be useful. Welcome back, Kapler. The Fenway Sweathogs have missed you.


• Trust me, I am not making this accusation in hindsight: Terry Francona bleeped up by sticking with Tim Wakefield too long Tuesday night. Ten straight balls is a pretty clear indication that a pitcher has lost it, and when a knuckleballer such as Wakefield suddenly goes bad, crooked numbers can go up on the scoreboard in as fast as you can say walk-walk-homer. But I am not going to fault Francona for leaving in Matt Clement to take a beating last night, because I'm convinced the manager was sending the player a message: You were pissed we skipped your turn against the Yankees last week? Prove me wrong. Prove to me you can handle the pressure, pitch out of trouble and win a meaningful game. In the end, all that Clement proved was that his manager's limited faith in him was justified. I doubt he'll be pitching against the Yankees again anytime soon if the Sox can help it.

• Kyle Farnsworth is by all accounts a meathead, but does he ever have some filthy stuff - maybe even enough to overcome his Jeff Weaver-Kenny Rogers-Ed Whitson meltdown potential. If I were a Yankee fan, I'd much rather see him on the mound than his predecessor, Tom Gordon.

• One more item regarding Clement: Don't know if you noticed last night, but after he got hit by Bernie Williams's line drive, he began flinching at batted balls that were nowhere near him. Coincidentally - or maybe not - that's also when his command and concentration went on the fritz. You'd be a fool not to believe that last summer's frightening incident in Tampa Bay remained in his consciousness, but until last night, I had no idea that it was still affecting him to this extent. But for every pitcher who recovers from being drilled in the head with a liner - Mike Mussina and Bill Swift come to mind - there are the Bryce Flories and Herb Scores, hurlers who never feel comfortable or safe on the mound again, and thus never pitch effectively. I'm not saying Clement is in the latter category, but I'm not ready to say he isn't, either.

• Scott Erickson and Terrence Long to the rescue? And Erubiel Durazo and Richard Hidalgo are on the way? Well, damn, let's just concede that 27th championship and get on with enjoying a Sox-free, stress-free summer already. Seriously, you'd think with all of their resources - and Brian Cashman's supposed acumen as a GM, of which I remain skeptical - the Yankees would do a better job of accumulating second-tier talent and maybe even an actual bench. The days of Darryl Strawberry, Role Player, must seem long ago to the Bronx faithful.

• I'm not one to write off a future Hall of Fame pitcher after a handful of rough starts . . . but man, Randy Johnson is a mess, overthrowing his fastball and sacrificing any semblance of command to make up for the MPH father time has taken. And his once-unhittable slider? It's so flat, it might as well have a neon Hit Me sign. Giving up a Mass Pike bomb to Manny is one thing, but when Kevin Youkilis is swinging from his heels against you, you know you've got troubles. It'll be interesting to see how - make that if - Johnson recovers from this. He clearly has no use for Jorge Posada, and with inexperienced Ron Guidry drawling in one ear and know-it-all Joe Kerrigan babbling into the other, it seems he's got a lot of people telling him what he's doing wrong, but no one yet with the solution.

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



Speaking of Guidry, this kid is his second coming - yes, I think Kazmir is that talented. For a Mets fan, this has to be the equivalent of seeing Jeff Bagwell in a Red Sox uniform.