TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted, Spring Training Preview Capsules: NL East

(Third in a six-part series, teams listed in order of predicted finish.)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Foul tips and other observations: Jimmy Rollins is right - the Phillies are the team to beat in the East . . . Reasons? Start with the right side of the infield. Reigning MVP Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley combined for 90 homers and 251 RBIs . . . And with the acquisition of Freddy Garcia, the starting rotation is deeper than the Mets', though the Phillies are counting on Brett Myers to finally pitch to the level of his stuff . . .Pat Burrell is a favorite target of the Philly jackals for his strikeouts and supposed lackadaisical attitude, but his numbers (29 homers, .890 OPS) suggest he's a very valuable offensive player . . . You know athletes live in a different world than we do when a mediocrity like Jon Lieber can roll into spring training in a $211,000 truck . . . Definition of a late bloomer: Jamie Moyer didn't win more than 13 games in a season until he was 34, yet he now has 216 career victories . . . Admit it: You had no idea Rollins hit 25 homers last year.

Breakthrough player: Cole Hamels. The cocky lefty already has one of the best changeups around.

Breakdown player: Flash Gordon. Actually, I'm still stunned his elbow survived Joe Torre.

Completely random Bill James stat: How's this for a balance of power? Howard led the NL in home runs on the road (29) and at home (29).

NEW YORK METS
Foul tips and other observations: The lineup could hold its own in the American League, but the starting rotation is straight out of the Atlantic League . . . To put it another way: Both Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele could begin the season in their rotation. Yikes . . . Tom Glavine should cruise to the 10 wins he needs for 300, but asking him to be the ace at age 41 is a little much . . . It'll be fascinating to see how Pedro Martinez adjusts and alters his style after shoulder surgery. His brother Ramon was never close to the same pitcher after his injury, but then he never had the command and guile that Pedro has. I'm guessing he'll still be effective, but I'm glad the Mets are paying the big bucks to find out and not the Red Sox . . How old is Julio Franco? He made his major-league debut more than a year before Jose Reyes was born . . . Reyes gets my vote as the most fun player to watch in the National League, and one can argue that he's already the best shortstop in New York. He's simply electrifying, especially when he's zipping around the bases and turning a routine double into a standup triple.

Breakthrough player: Mike Pelfrey. Either he or Philip Humber is going to have to deliver in the rotation, because Omar's Retreads won't get it done.

Breakdown player: El Duque. He's closer to Franco's age than he admits.

Completely random Bill James stat: Billy Wagner had the fastest average fastball among NL relievers (95.3 MPH).

ATLANTA BRAVES
Foul tips and other observations: Is John Smoltz a Hall of Famer? I say yes. He and the Eck are the only pitchers in history with 150 wins and 150 saves . . . GM John Schuerholz - who will make it to Cooperstown himself someday - did a hell of a job rebuilding the Braves' bullpen, getting Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates for the overrated Adam LaRoche, then absolutely stealing Rafael Soriano from the Mariners for Horacio Ramirez . . . I'm in the minority here, but I think Tim Hudson is going to bounce back big from last year's misery (13-12, 4.86). His stuff is too good and he's too much of a competitor the fade into mediocrity at age 31 . . . Anyone who thinks free-agent-to-be Andruw Jones would be a capable offensive replacement for Manny Ramirez next season isn't paying attention. Jones hits bushels of home runs (41 last year), but he's just a .267 career hitter . . . Joe Mauer gets all the pub for obvious reasons, but Brian McCann (.333-24-93) might just be the best young offensive catcher in baseball.

Breakthrough player: Kelly Johnson. Former outfielder with a .366 career on-base percentage in the minors takes over for Marcus Giles at second base and in the leadoff spot.

Breakdown player: Chipper Jones. He just got hurt reading this. Pulled eyelid, out four to six weeks.

Completely random Bill James stat: Chipper tied Miguel Cabrera for the highest OPS among NL third baseman (.988).


FLORIDA MARLINS
Foul tips and other observations: Fredi Gonzalez has a great reputation but a tough act to follow. Hanley Ramirez and the rest of the Marlins' kids responded well to Joe Girardi's tough love . . . It doesn't help that two of their better young pitchers, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, are already dealing with varying degrees of arm problems . . . The most similar batter to Miguel Cabrera through age 23? Some dude named Aaron. Decent company . . . I'm a Josh Beckett believer, but even his most ardent fan finds it hard not to wish Ramirez were playing shortstop for the Sox. His rookie season (.292, 74 extra-base hits, 51 steals) was nothing less than sensational . . . I think Jason Stokes has been on the Marlins' 40-man roster longer than they've actually existed as a franchise. One of these years, maybe he'll get a big-league at-bat to show for it . . . There isn't a more genuinely likeable and charismatic player in baseball than Dontrelle Willis, which makes his offseason arrest all the more disappointing . . . Who's the closer here? Ricky Nolasco has the stuff and the temperament, but not the experience.

Breakthrough player: Jeremy Hermida. A rookie-of-the-year favorite a year ago, he never got going, but his ability is undeniable.

Breakdown player: Dan Uggla. Struggled mightily in the second half. Did pitchers solve the mystery as to why the D-Backs let him get away in the Rule 5 draft?

Completely random Bill James stat: Willis, who never gets cheated at the plate, had the second-highest OPS among pitchers (.565, trailing Carlos Zambrano's .589).

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Foul tips and other observations: This team is horrible. Any other questions? . . . John Patterson is the ace in the loosest sense of the word: his single-season high in wins is 9, and he won exactly one game last year . . . But he's a sure thing compared to the rest of the rotation. Thirty-something pitchers are in camp vying for the other four rotation spots and bullpen duty, among them Jermaine Van Buren, Tim Redding, and Jerome Williams. What, no Pat Mahomes? . . . Frank Robinson escaped just in time . . . Brian Schneider (.256-4-55) is the catcher the Sox coveted before re-signing Jason Varitek two winters ago. It's fair to say they did the right thing . . . A closer of Chad Cordero's caliber is wasted on a team that won't have too many save opportunities. Here's hoping Theo Epstein is still reminding Jim Bowden of that on a regular basis . . . At least Ryan Zimmerman offers some hope for the future. He might be better than Scott Rolen at third already.

Breakthrough player: Ryan Church. He'll hit (10 homers in 196 at-bats a year ago) if given a fair shake.

Breakdown player: Nick Johnson. Actually, he's already hurt. But when isn't he?

Completely random Bill James stat: Johnson was second in the league in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.29), behind only the Phillies' Burrell (4.32).

As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free incarcerated Bengals for you . . .


1. Allen Iverson, guard, Boston Celtics? I reluctantly approve such a notion, if only for entertainment's sake; the Answer's reckless/relentless style of play would be a treat to watch up close, though I fear all the lumps his scrawny body has absorbed through the years will lead to an accelerated decline. There is one caveat to my approval, however: If Gerald Green's name comes up in any discussion with the Sixers, I plead with Danny Ainge to hang up the phone and wait for Billy King to humbly call back with a more reasonable request. They can have Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair, and even Big Al if his exclusion is a deal-breaker. Just don't give up Green. He has rare physical talent, a picturesque jump shot, and you can see he's figuring it out with each minute of playing time Doc Rivers awards him. I'd rather watch him grow into an elite talent than watch a current elite talent like Iverson begin to age.

2. Is Doug Mirabelli the only person on the planet with the mad skills to catch a knuckleball? I'm beginning to think so, since the Sox are apparently kicking around the thought of bringing him back one more time to caddy for Tim Wakefield. This is, of course, a ridiculously pea-brained idea. Mirabelli was washed up two years ago, and he's a well-known pain in the Assenmacher on top of it all. I say it's about time Jason Varitek sucked it up and caught Wakefield, and if that's not an option, then bring in Sandy Alomar Jr., whom I believe caught Tom Candiotti in Cleveland way back in the deadball era. Sure, Alomar may be calcified at this point - I think he's actually older than Sandy Alomar Sr. - but really, can he be any worse than Mirabelli?

3. So now the versatile Don Davis is done for the year, the 11th Patriot to be placed in injured reserve this season, and Belichick's troops are suddenly so thin at linebacker that one more injury (knock on wood) would be nothing short of devastating to their defense. Hell, the situation is pretty dire already. How dire? Paging Roman Phifer . . . Roman Phifer, please report to the front desk . . . Hey, even though ol' No. 95 is now two years into retirement, I can think of worse options. (See: Beisel, Monty).

4. In a related note, I'd gladly welcome Junior Seau back for a second tour with the Patriots in '07, though it should be as a backup since it would be prudent to start getting younger at the position. (I still contend that Kamerion Wimbley, the Browns' stellar rookie linebacker, was their No. 1 target in the last draft, though that Maroney kid wasn't a bad consolation prize.) Even Seau's most ardent detractors had to be won over by his inspired and reliable play before his gruesome injury, and he seemed to really relish the Patriot atmosphere.

5. Apparently, hypocrisy is an intangible. From the fellas at Fire Joe Morgan:

Does anyone still wonder why we are tough on Derek Jeter for not standing up for ARod this past year?

Here's a recent article where Derek Jeter talks about ARod:

Recently, the Yankees Captain has been hit with some misguided criticism that he should come out stronger in his defense of Alex Rodriguez . . .

"That's exactly what I said," Jeter calmly explained. "I said the only thing I wasn't going to do was tell the fans who they should boo and who they shouldn't boo."

And here's an article from 2005 where Derek Jeter talks about Jason Giambi:

Then Jeter took the opportunity to stand up for Giambi, who was booed so loudly after he struck out in the eighth inning it was hard to hear public address announced Bob Sheppard announce the next hitter. Jeter implored Yankees fans to stop booing Giambi.

"The fans have to start cheering for him," Jeter said. "If you're a Yankee fan, you want us to win and we need Jason."

One more time: 2006, re: ARod:

"I said the only thing I wasn't going to do was tell the fans who they should boo and who they shouldn't boo."

And 2005, in re: Giambi:

Jeter implored Yankees fans to stop booing Giambi. "The fans have to start cheering for him," Jeter said. "If you're a Yankee fan, you want us to win and we need Jason."

The end.

Seriously, that is just awesome. Fist pump!

6. If I'm Theo Epstein, I keep dialing up Jim Bowden and badgering him about a Wily Mo Pena-for-Chad Cordero swap until the Nats' GM either changes his number or gives in. While a straight-up swap probably isn't reasonable - the Sox would have to kick in at least a pitching prospect or two - it's not completely illogical from the Nats' standpoint. Bowden reportedly has a fondness for Pena dating back to their time in Cincinnati together, Washington desperately needs some sock in the middle of their Soriano-less order, and while Cordero is already a proven closer at age 25, he's something of a luxury to a Nationals team that is so flawed that it probably won't have a whole lot of leads for him to protect.

7. Forget the insane money given to such mediocrities as Gil Meche, Juan Pierre, and Gary Matthews Jr. The leader in the clubhouse for Bleepin' Stupidest Signing Of The Offseason is the Chicago Cubs for the three-year, $20 million deal they gave Jason Marquis today. Yes, that Jason Marquis - the one who was quite possibly the worst pitcher in the NL this season (6.20 ERA, led the league in homers allowed) and has a reputation of disregarding the advice of everyone but the voices in his own thick head. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan must be having a good laugh about this one.

8. I finally found the analogy I was looking for: Pam Beesley is this generation's Bailey Quarters, and if you know what I'm talking about, I know you're nodding your head in agreement. And with our obligatory "The Office" mention out of the way, here are some words from a certain stellar TV show of its time that might just stick in your head for the rest of the day: Baby, if you've ever wondered/Wondered what ever became of me . . . Go ahead, sing it. Resistance is futile.

9. Curt Schilling says he's learning some Japanese so he can communicate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. I suppose it's an honorable gesture, though I'm suddenly curious if there's a Japanese word for "windbag."

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Who knew the current Boomer Wells wasn't the original? You know, I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume the two aren't related.