TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted, Spring Training Preview Capsules: NL West

(First in a six-part series, teams listed in predicted order of finish.)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Foul tips and other observations: Confession: I had no idea until recently that Derek Lowe tied for the NL lead in wins last season (16). Yes, I wish he was still in Boston, and so do most of the bars . . . The Juan Pierre signing was ignorant enough on its own merit, but the fact that it effectively blocks Matt Kemp (a Dave Winfield wannabe) from the big leagues makes it downright inexplicable . . . Andre Ethier? Eh, he's a JAG . . . I'm immediately docking them five victories due to the Grady Factor. The dope still can't manage a bullpen without an illustrated manual.

Breakthrough player: Jonathan Broxton. Sure, he looks like he swallowed Sidney Ponson whole, but with 97 strikeouts in 76 innings a season ago, he's reminiscent of a young Eric Gagne. No wonder the Sox insisted on including him in any trade discussions for Manny Ramirez. Come to think of it, last year was kind of his breakthrough, so let's just say the Dodgers have a number of other candidates who qualify here, most notably starter Chad Billingsley, third baseman Andy LaRoche, and first baseman James Loney.

Breakdown player: We're resisting the temptation to suggest Nomar. The longer he is gone from Boston, the more fondly we remember him, and we can't help but wish him good health. So let's go with Jeff (You're A Redneck If . . .) Kent, who at age 38 is coming off his least productive season since '96 and whose greasy fingerprints were all over those anonymous quotes critical of J.D. Drew. He was a lot more tolerable as clubhouse a foil for Barry Bonds.

Completely random Bill James stat: Brad Penny led the NL in pitches at or above 95 MPH with 817, and also had the fastest average fastball (93.9). I'm beginning to think he and Josh Beckett were separated at birth.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Foul tips and other observations: Quick, who's managing this crew now? . . . If you said Bud Black, nice work, Gammons . . . Count me among those who don't think Marcus Giles of the Incredibly Shrinking Giles Brothers will rejuvenate his career in San Diego . . . Definition of underachieving: Jake Peavy, 11-14, 4.09. He should win 15 games on stuff alone . . . Has Kevin Towers figured out how he's going to pants Theo Epstein in a trade yet ? After the Mirabelli debacle, Theo would be wise to stop talking his mentor's calls . . . That said, Josh Bard won't come within 60 points of last season's batting average (.333) . . . God bless Todd Walker for his performance in the 2003 postseason, but at this point, his glove is nothing more than a prop.

Breakthrough player: Kevin Kouzmanoff. Scouts say he can swing it, but question whether he will be able to handle third base defensively. Given the lack of thumpers in the Padres' lineup and the price (Josh Barfield) the Padres paid to acquire him, he won't lack for chances. Hit .389 in Double A and .353 in Triple A before coming up to Cleveland late last season.

Breakdown player: David Wells. Boomer's long overdue for another bout with gout.

Completely random Bill James stat: Cla Meredith held opposing batters to a .170 average, best among NL relievers. And somewhere, Bob Lobel twitches with delight.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Foul tips and other observations: I didn't get the Randy Johnson trade at first - why give up anything of substance when the Yankees so clearly wanted nothing to do with him anymore? - but given his popularity in Arizona and the fact that he could probably win 10 games just by showing up in the National League, I suppose it can be justified somewhat . . . I still can't forgive former Sox assistant GM Josh Byrnes for letting the Yankees off the hook, however . . . Brandon Webb is nasty, but he has to be the most obscure NL Cy Young winner since John Denny in '83 . . . If you predicted during his .207-3-29 tank job with the 2002 Sox that Tony Clark would still be employed as a big-league baseball player five years later, I guess your crystal ball is superior to mine . . . Beanbag reliever Casey Daigle is married to softball icon Jennie Finch. Call me finicky, but I don't consider him quite as fortunate as others do.

Breakthrough player: Let's see . . . there's Stephen Drew . . . Carlos Quentin . . . Chris Young . . . Conor Jackson . . . geez, take your pick. The D-Backs are as loaded as any team in the game.

Breakdown player: Johnson. He's 41, stands a gawky 6-foot-10, has a chronically bad back and shot knees. Yeah, he'll hold up just fine.

Completely random Bill James stat: Johnson led the American League in run support last season (7.51).

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Foul tips and other observations: New slogan: Baseball Has Been Barry, Barry Good To Me! . . . All right, sorry for that. Hey, some people think Lenny Clarke is funny, so you never know what jokes will fly . . . There's no doubt the two Barrys are sharing the Bay Area spotlight, as Bonds tries to catch Aaron before the feds catch him, and Zito tries to pitch up to a contract that will pay him at least twice what he's worth . . . As fun as he his to watch, make no mistake, Zito has officially become a junkballer - he was second in the AL in pitches thrown below 80 MPH. A certain Boston knuckleballer was first . . . But what we said about the Big Unit applies here: In the NL, he should win double figures just by making 30-plus starts . . . If the Giants were better, I'd be tempted to throw a few bucks down on Matt Cain as the 2007 Cy Young winner. He's the real ace here . . . Dave Roberts: wonderful guy, hero for all ages, atrocious long-term signing.

Breakthrough player: Tim Lincecum: No, I haven't seen him pitch either, but just about every prospect guide says he's K-Rod's doppleganger in terms of delivery and stuff. That's good enough for me - and besides, just about everyone else on this team other than Cain qualifies for AARP.

Breakdown player: Bonds. Here's hoping Henry Aaron pulls a Gillooly on him before he can completely tarnish the record books. Hell, Bud Selig might beat him to it.

Completely random Bill James stat: Zito led the American League in pitches per start last season (107.8) and batters faced (945) . . . so at least he's durable, which is nice.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Foul tips and other observations: The babbling owner can deny it all he wants, but I still say Todd Helton is an ex-Rocky before the ballclub breaks camp . . . Any chance the Yankees might pounce, preventing Theo from bringing the aging albatross to Boston? . . . Given how productive they are, I probably shouldn't admit that I wouldn't recognize Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday if they showed up as ringers on a rival softball team . . . You say Clint Barmes, I say Dustin Pedroia in a higher altitude . . . Lefty Jeff Francis has a chance to be the Rockies' first homegrown ace: at age 25, he was 13-11 with a 4.16 ERA . . . Remember when skipper Clint Hurdle was pegged as baseball's next surefire superstar as a kid with Kansas City? Man, I am getting old . . . The mummified remains of Javy Lopez are on the Rockies' active roster. Suddenly, Doug Mirabelli's continued employment makes slightly more sense.

Breakthrough player: Francis. Bet you didn't know he led the NL in shutouts last season (7).

Breakdown player: Is Vinny Castilla still around? No? The we'll cop out and go with Helton continuing his four-season decline, should he surprise us and stay.

Completely random Bill James stat: Holliday hit two of the five longest homers in the NL last season.

Wiener roast

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free Coney Island hot dogs for you . . .


1. The more I see of Kevin (37 and 23) Durant, the more I pray that M.L. Rivers and the Celtics keep Paul Pierce locked up in a broom closet until this season is safely tanked. Since few free agents consider Boston a worthwhile destination, the only chance to break free from this cycle of mediocrity is to hit it big in the lottery. and with Texas freshman Durant, a breathtaking amalgam of Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady, and game-changing Ohio State big man Greg Oden likely available this spring, now is the time to win by losing.

2. What's happened to Ted Johnson is beyond tragic, and judging by his doctor's ominous words, this story is only going to get worse. But even as I sympathize with a man whose life has been shattered by the culture of football, I can't help but think that more of his plight is self-inflicted than he's willing or able to admit. After all, Johnson is blaming Bill Belichick for altering his career and his life by forcing him to practice with a concussion in 2002 . . . yet earlier this year, Johnson expressed frustration that the Patriots didn't sign him after Junior Seau was lost for the season.
I suppose we have to chalk up such contradictory illogic to the sad fact that his brain has been rattled beyond repair.

3. Mike Ditka and a few other notable former players have been on a media crusade this week, demanding drastic improvements in the pension program and the medical and financial benefits for the NFL's alumni. It's certainly a worthy cause, for there are many more Ted Johnsons out there whose lives have been devastated by the aftereffects of their violent occupation. But it must be noted that there is a certain amount of ironic hypocrisy in all of this. Had the NFL Players' Union shown any kind of unity during the strikes of '82 and '87, the players who crossed those picket lines and didn't consider the future would be living better lives today.

4. Speaking of Seau, it kind of felt like he was the Special Guest Star to this Patriots season - it was fun to add such a famous face to the cast, but we knew, given his age and injury history, that his stay was probably only temporary. I bring this up because I kind of forgot about him after his injury . . . yet, in rehashing the Pats/Colts game in my mind over the last week, it kind of dawned on me that his presence might have made a huge difference in the second half of that game. Not only did he outplay Tedy Bruschi against the run earlier this season, but he was far and away the teams best linebacker in pass coverage, particularly against tight ends in the seam. I can't help but think that had he not Theismanned his arm all those weeks ago, we'd never have heard of Bryan Fletcher.

5. Words to mark: Todd Helton will be batting second and playing first base for the Boston Red Sox on opening day. Pay no mind to that jabbering Rockies owner - the fact that Colorado was willing to pick up half of the $90 million remaining on his deal tells you all you need to know about the ball club's desperation to get a deal done. Kudos to the Sox for refusing to part with Manny Delcarmen or Craig Hansen. They'll get this thing done in the spring, on their terms.

6. Curt Schilling's Sign Me Now Or Lose Me Later antics are remarkably similar to the routine Pedro Martinez pulled three springs ago. I'm glad both Shaughnessy and Seth Mnookin called the disingenuous windbag out on it.

7. It's a good thing the Bruins are completely irrelevant, or someone with some clout might start noticing that the Joe Thornton trade will go down as one of the absolute worst in Boston sports history. Maybe once Brad Stuart is traded for a sack of pucks and a couple of fourth-liners, those who applauded this trade will come forth and admit their idiocy.

8. For the first time as far as I can tell, ESPN allowed comments on a Bill Simmons column yesterday . . . and man, it didn't take long for it to quickly escalate into a highly entertaining, Deadspin-fueled evisceration of all things World Wide Leader. I'm thinking ESPN is probably going to go back to the drawing board here. At any rate, it made me appreciate the handful of regular commenters here, who by and large piss me off only when they make my point more eloquently than I do.

9. All right, Officephiles, answer me this: What in the name of Mose Schrute was Pam up to last night? Those lunchroom conversations with Jim and Karen were just plain weird, and even after (obsessive nerd alert!) checking out a couple of Office fan sites last night, I'm still not quite sure what was happening there. Was she trying to flirt with Jim (and failing miserably) with that whole REM thing, of which there certainly were suggestive undertones? Why was she so distracted while Karen was pigeonholing her, and why did it seem she was trying to act that way? Is she just frustrated and lonely and on the verge of a breakdown . . . or worse, getting back together with Roy? And if she's trying to send Jim signals that she digs him, well, why doesn't she just come out and say it? Answers, people. I need 'em now. Next Thursday is too far away.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


No relation to the horse.

First and 10: Sunset on a season

1. It was natural, in the mournful aftermath of the Patriots' loss to the Colts, to be tempted to put the franchise's days as an NFL power in the past tense. We longed for the not-so-long-ago days when Tom Brady was infallible and Peyton Manning could be counted on to swallow his chin strap in the clutch. We lamented a lost opportunity, and wondered, with a supersized dose of self-pity, if it would ever be so good again. Hey, it was devastating loss. We were appropriately devastated. But now that the defeat has had a week to fade farther away in the rear-view mirror, our perspective is again one of logic more than emotion. And while we still ache from a game that was two minutes too long, we can't help but feel optimistic about the Patriots and the direction in which they are headed. Oh, sure, some are eager to declare the dynasty dead, and while two years without a Super Bowl is absolutely a step back given what they accomplished in previous seasons, I believe with some minor tinkering this team will rise again before they fall. Think about it: Belichick is still here and still hungry. Brady is in his prime. Laurence Maroney looks like a dynamic ballcarrier. They are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and deep in the defensive backfield. We all know they need an impact linebacker and a wide receiver or two, but with two first-round picks and a few dollars to spend, those holes can and will be plugged. Further, we must applaud them for doing what was thought to be impossible during this salary cap era - they have replenished their talent base without sliding down the standings. The Patriots are a younger team now than they were in 2001, and if you take a look at some of the names on the roster that humbled The Greatest Show On Turf that glorious night, you'll realize they're a far more skilled team too. Contrary to current public opinion, they are not going the way of their closest peers in NFL history, the dynastic Cowboys of the '90s, who failed to surround its Hall of Fame core with a quality supporting cast once free agency took its toll. (And we won't even get into the impact of Barry Switzer's involvement.) The Patriots are not beginning a slow descent into mediocrity; they went 12-4 and lost in the conference championship game undergoing personnel transitions that would constitute a full-fledged rebuilding job for most franchises. That is an astonishing feat, and even with the abrupt ending, it was a hell of a season. Good health willing, there are even better seasons ahead.

2. It's trendy, particularly among the suddenly giddy Belichick Bashers, to say that Tony Dungy outcoached the Hoodied One in the second half, and maybe there's some truth there; even the likes of Andy Reid and Herm Edwards must be tempted to question the inept way the Patriots (mis)managed their timeouts in the final two minutes. But to say the Colts made a shrewd adjustment when they decided to stop throwing deep to Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison and instead started targeting the tight ends and running backs over the middle is to ignore the fact that everyone who watched the Patriots this season wondered why the Colts didn't do this sooner. Even a know-nothing bagpipe like Glenn Ordway knew Dallas Clark would be a tough cover for the Patriots' linebackers, who developed a collective case of rigamortis (oh, right . . . cramps) as the season progressed. The second half certainly was hideous for the Patriots; I shudder to think how many points Peyton and the Ponies might have produced had they been shrewd enough to attack the Patriots' glaring weakness from the start.

3. Obviously, an agile linebacker or two should be atop Belichick's grocery list in the offseason. Chicago's Lance Briggs and Baltimore's Adalius Thomas are the notable names in free agency, and while both are accomplished players (Thomas strikes me as a Willie McGinest clone), I'm not going to pretend to know how either would fit into the Patriots' complex scheme. Another intriguing possibility is Buffalo's London Fletcher-Baker, a fireplug whom Belichick has gone out of his way to compliment this season. I wonder if he's setting the stage to try to acquire him; it reminds me of the praise Belichick heaped on Rosey Colvin the season before he lured him to New England. I'd also like to believe the mock drafts are on the money and the Patriots will spend one of their first-round picks on Ole Miss's Patrick Willis. He can run, played his heart out for a hopeless team, says he's more suited to playing the 4-3, and has the maturity Belichick desires. In other words, he just what they need . . . presuming he fits their system, of course.

4. It's all well and good that the NFL kinda-sorta admitted it's mistake on the phantom Ellis Hobbs "face-guarding" call, but I'm still waiting for an explanation why no flag was thrown when Reche Caldwell was fondled, mugged, and mutilated in the end zone on a crucial fourth-quarter fade pattern. Had that happened to one of the Colts' delicate flowers, that nut Bill Polian would have stormed the NFL offices in a tank.

5. All right, Asante Samuel, I'm a believer. After the Law-like job you did on Marvin (Please Don't Touch Me!) Harrison, you deserve the title of Shutdown Corner, and the appropriate eight-figure signing bonus that comes with it. Here's hoping you're all right with becoming acquainted with another title: Franchise Player.

6. Samuel is obviously the priority among the free agents, but I do hope the Patriots find a way to retain Daniel Graham. Not only is he a devastating blocker and a respected voice in the locker room, but in my opinion he's the best all-around tight end on the roster by a Wilfork-wide margin. Ben Watson had a decent season numbers-wise, but the inconsistency of his hands and route-running was maddening, and I got the sense Brady's faith in him shriveled as the season progressed. Graham, meanwhile, made crucial catches in both the San Diego and Indy games, receptions I'm not sure Watson would have made since he struggles to hang on to any throw that doesn't hit him between the 8 and the 4 on his jersey.

7. So, has anyone heard from all the would-be personnel wizards who claimed the loss of Adam Vinatieri would cost the Patriots at least one game, if not two? The reality is that the greatest clutch kicker in NFL history was not missed for one moment this season, and for that it's time to give Stephen Gostkowski his due: after some early hiccups, the kid ultimately handled every challenge during a fine rookie season. Like his decorated predecessor, he saved his best moments for the playoffs, hitting all eight of his field goal attempts, including a 43-yarder that gave the Patriots a short-lived 34-31 lead against the Colts. And his final kickoff was a bomb - had the Colts not marched 80 yards down the field for the victory, he'd be getting his just due as an unsung hero.

8. That certain whinnying talk-radio metrosexual who claims that Rashad Baker's walk-on role in the Indy game is proof that the Patriots lacked roster depth? He's a lotion-slathered idiot. Anyone with a shred of perspective realizes Baker wouldn't be anywhere near the field if Harrison, Wilson, Artrell Hawkins, Tebucky Jones, Don Davis, and perhaps even Mel Mitchell hadn't been hurt. Including James Sanders and versatile Chad Scott, Baker is the Patriots' sixth-string safety at best. Quick, tell me one other team that is even four-deep at the position. Hell, the Colts' season-long defensive problems were in large part due to injuries to starting safeties Bob Sanders and Mike Doss - they simply had no one capable of replacing their best two guys. If anything, it's a nod to the Belichick and Scott Pioli's roster-building skills that they had one of the elite defenses in the league while playing without Harrison and Wilson almost the entire season.

9. Because we're shaking off our Patriots hangover and slowly transitioning back into baseball mode here at TATB headquarters, I suppose we should weigh in on the rumor of the day, that the Sox are in "high-level" negotiations with the Rockies to acquire first baseman Todd Helton. Our take: Good god, please let this be fiction. Helton is 33, has a bad back, is coming off a season in which he hit 15 homers with a career-low .476 slugging percentage playing half his games at Coors Field, and is due $90.1 million over the next six seasons. Even if the Rockies pick up half of the contract and take Matt Clement off the Sox's hands, I fail to see what the appeal is. Sure, he was a premier hitter not so long ago, but at this point, Helton's a line-drive hitter who sees a lot of pitches and plays a fine first base. Sounds like John Olerud circa 2005 to me. Pass, Theo.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Card:



Gee, think the Fridge will be the subject of any "Where Are They Now?" stories the next two weeks?