Baby, have you ever wondered/Wondered what ever became of me

After too many days away, you know I've got some things to say . . .

RED SOX: You know, I hate even thinking this, let alone writing it, but I'm beginning to wonder where Papi's mojo has gone. I know, today was an extreme example of his recent struggles, whiffing feebly with runners on base not once but twice late in the game, but man, it's just so damn disconcerting to see him falter in those clutch situations after absolutely owning the late innings since 2003. I may be forgetting an early-season walkoff single or some other meaningful late-inning delivery here, but the reality is he's been more mortal that superhero so far in '07. I know that is borderline blasphemous to say, but he hasn't homered at Fenway since April 21, and watching him fail to catch up to some very hittable fastballs recently, I'm beginning to wonder if something's wrong. Now, I realize it's unfair to expect someone to come through every single time, but I just miss that feeling that when he comes to the plate with the game on the line, you just know it's going to end with a moonshot, then a raised fist as he trots around first, a tossed batting helmet as he heads down the homestretch, and finally, a raucous celebration at home plate. And I know I'm not the only one who wonders where those moments have gone - even Joe Castig's voice lacked that familiar sense of optimism or anticipation when Papi was the winning run at the plate with two outs in the ninth, and he hardly sounded surprised when his final call was a dejected "Swing and a popup," rather than his old joyous standby, "David Ortiz has done it again!" I mean, he is going to do it again soon, right? . . . Julio Lugo's pea-brained attempt to swipe third base with the Sox down a run and Kevin Youkilis at the plate Saturday was the single stupidest baserunning move by a Sox player since Psycho Lyons's idiotic heyday. I suppose you can't fault him, though. He's been on base so infrequently this season that I'm surprised he actually ran in the right direction . . . The Red Sox have scored 26 runs in their last nine games, Papi and Manny just completed a month in which they combined for 23 RBIs and looked less like the reincarnation of Gehrig and Ruth and more like the modern-day Maas and Meulens, and if the Yankees weren't actually living up to a certain chant, we might be in full panic mode about this June semi-swoon. While you have to chalk it up to a bad month (the Sox went 13-14), a malaise that afflicts even the best teams over the long season, there has to be some level of concern here, even considering their relatively comfortable lead in the American League East. And the more I consider the strengths and weaknesses of this team heading into the All-Star break, the more convinced I become that they need to add another big bat to the lineup. So I ask: Would you go after Mark Teixeira? And what would you give up? Provided he returns to his .959-OPS form after returning from his quad injury, I say they should at least try to swing a deal with Texas, and while I'd hope Theo would hang up the phone Rangers GM Jon Daniels mentions Clay Buchholz's name, I'd give serious consideration to giving up Michael Bowden, and I might even listen to an offer for Jon Lester, gambling that once Teixeira got to Boston, he'd love the atmosphere enough that he'd want to stay after his contract expires following next season . . . So, assuming Lugo continues his quest to have the worst offensive season of any player in at least 10 years, what are the alternatives at shortstop? Omar Vizquel? He's 40 years old, has a wretched .594 OPS, and is known to be something of a clubhouse lawyer. I'll pass. Jed Lowrie? He's having a fine season in Portland after a slow start, but let's see him reach Triple A first before we anoint him the savior. Ed Rogers? Bobby Scales? Spike Owen? Yep, something tells me it's going to be Lugo with an increased dose of Alex Cora, and if the $36 Million Flop doesn't start looking like a major leaguer soon, Theo will be addressing the shortstop position for the fourth consecutive offseason . . . Call me a conspiracy theorist, but considering Curt Schilling apparent annoyance with the way the front office is handling his injury, I'm wondering if there's more going on here. To put it another way, I'm not so sure that there isn't more concern about his conditioning in general than the condition of his shoulder . . . Given what the Baseball America junkies have told us about his roadrunner (beep-beep!) speed, it seemed appropriate that Jacoby Ellsbury's first big league hit was a basically a routine grounder that he legged out after a moment's hesitation by the shortstop. The kid looks like a jittery rookie right now (admit it, the Sox have missed Coco Crisp in center the past two days), but it's always fun to catch a first glimpse of a player whom you're pretty sure will be a big part of the future.

CELTICS: Now, about that other Boston team in the news lately, and no, I don't mean the Bruins and their acquisition of journeyman goalie Manny Fernandez. I'm talking about the Runnin' Grousbecks, of course, and how fascinating it has been to gauge the national reaction to Danny Ainge's acquisition of Ray Allen for first-rounder Jeff Green, Delonte West, and Wally Szczerbiak's leftover limbs. If I recall correctly, Sports Illustrated's Ian Thomsen and Jack McCallum loved the deal for Boston (and there's no one I respect more than McCallum), ESPN stat dude John Hollinger hated it, and Bill Simmons seemed to talk himself into it as his Draft Diary progressed. My take? Well, my initial reaction was that it was a panic move, that Ainge was desperate to do something to A) appease Paul Pierce and B) save his own hindquarters, and so he brought in a 32-year-old guard with two gimpy ankles and the inability to guard Denzel Washington, let alone actual NBA players. But then I remembered just how much I liked watching Allen shoot the ball - seriously, there hasn't been anyone with a smoother J since Dale Ellis - and the thought of him, Pierce and Al Jefferson (or, I almost hope, Kevin Garnett) playing together sounded like, well, fun. And we all know that fun hasn't exactly been in abundance at the New Garden in recent years. I'm still not sure it was a particularly shrewd move for the franchise's long-term health, but at least the Celtics are going to be interesting next season, and for now, I guess I consider that progress.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



While playing 148 games at shortstop for the 1988 Philadelphia Phillies, Mr. Jeltz here batted a robust .187 in 379 at-bats, while slugging a mighty .237. So, yes, there have been modern shortstop who have been as atrocious for a full season as Lugo has been for half of one. I just hope Jeltz isn't signed to a six-year, $60 million deal by Theo next winter.

* * *

Quickie links to stuff we wrote: The FOXSports column is here (and be sure to tune in this coming Friday - I think I might go after a certain Calm-Eyed Captain in the Bronx), and here's a shorter piece I wrote for Sunday's edition of Red Sox GameDay. As always, we appreciate the clicks, and while my work schedule is nuts the next few weeks (at least by my couch potato standards), I have a couple of posts planned that I'm looking forward to writing, including a midseason report card. So be sure to check in, and as always, thanks for your patience. Really, you're a saint.

Fade to black

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free throwaway lines for you . . .

1. The Red Sox lineup tonight had better have Kevin Youkilis and/or Dustin Pedroia at the top, and Coco Crisp-Tinsley and Julio Yugo at the bottom. I realize that Tito Francona stands by his players and gives them every opportunity to swing their way out of slumps, and sometimes, such as in the case of Pedroia earlier this season, that's an attribute. But for both Crisp and Lugo, this is no longer a slump; they've both been wretched offensive players for over a full season now, and their inability to get on base ahead of Papi and Manny is murdering the Sox offense. It's time for a shakeup, hopefully starting tonight.

2. If the Celtics hang on to the No. 5 pick, I vote for choosing Florida's Corey Brewer. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but he is adept at just about everything a player can do on a basketball court, and he strikes me as one of those guys who's going to be a key component on a winning team, sort of like Josh Howard in Dallas.

3. Remember when ESPN Classic actually showed, you know, classic sports? Now it's a drab mishmash of poker reruns, bowling, and Stump the Schwab marathons, with an occasional game mixed in, usually one that promotes something on the network that night. Back when you could click it on and randomly catch, say, the '86 NBA Finals highlight film, or a This Week In Baseball from the '70s, or the Kellen Winslow Chargers/Dolphins playoff game, I was gleefully addicted. Now, it might as well be the 24-Hour Rosie O'Donnell Network for all that I watch it. Chalk it ups as another great idea slaughtered by ESPN's marketing suits.

4. I'll always appreciate Mike Timlin for what he meant to the Sox in 2003 and '04, but it's gotten to the point where I dread even seeing him warming up in the bullpen during a close game. I appreciate Francona more than any other Sox manager of my lifetime, but his current blindspot for Timlin drives me nuts; why can't he realize he's no longer the pitcher who was so effective in the eighth inning a couple of seasons ago, and refrain from using him in tight situations? Wasn't he paying attention last August?

5. The national media, almost unanimously from what I can tell, came away from Patriots minicamp raving about Randy Moss. Certain members of the local press are predictably yowling that he was dogging it. So excuse me while I give Peter King credence for once.

6. A few posts ago I linked to a Bo Jackson column written by the great Kansas City Star columnist, Joe Posnanski. I should also have mentioned then that he maintains perhaps the most interesting and certainly the most well-written baseball blog you'll find. Ostensibly it's to promote his book on the legendary Buck O'Neil, but Posnanski veers off in various fun directions all the time, such as his recent post on the icons for every major-league franchise. It's become a must-read for me, so check it out if you get the chance. If you liked his Bo column, you won't be disappointed.

7. I suppose this could work in a Frasier-spinning-off-from-Cheers sort of way, but man, I just can't imagine the antics at Dunder-Mifflin being as funny without Dwight K. Schrute.

8. After watching the brilliant "Sopranos" ending 25 times on YouTube (before HBO yanked it for copyright reasons, apparently), I agree with the theory that Tony got capped in the restaurant. I just can't help but think the conversation earlier in the season between Tony and Bobby in which Bobby ponders what it's like to get whacked and finally concludes, "Maybe everything just goes black" was David Chase's way of foreshadowing the show's (and Tony's) final moments.

9. The hunch here is that Asante Samuel will sign the week before the season opener. It's understandable that he's frustrated that he can't cash in Nate Clements-style, but he's still due to make nearly $8 million this season, which is about $7 million more than he's made in his career up until this point. He'd be a fool to waste a pretty decent payday and a season of his prime in a hissy-fit of a holdout.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



This is most blatant airbrushing job I've ever seen . . . that is, until Amanda Beard.

TATB Live: Sox vs. '62 Mets

The rain has stopped after a half-hour delay, the Sox have taken the field, A-Rod has finally arrived after a delightful afternoon with a worn-out peroxide case at the Foxy Lady . . . and I've got the laptop, the clicker, and am fully prepared to be glued to the couch for the next three hours. So let's play ball already. But before we get this thing going, a few quick thoughts:

• The Sox's lead over the Yankees in the American League East is 13.5 entering tonight. Come Sunday night, here's hoping it's at 16.5 and Joe Torre wakes up Monday morning to learn that the classy New York tabloids are demanding Georgie Porgie roll some heads. Sox fans have been waiting a lot of years to spend a nice summer without concerning ourselves with the Yankees. Don't waste the opportunity now - win tonight, win tomorrow, blow 'em out Sunday, and stick a fork in 'em for the rest of the year. Who needs the drama besides the 'EEI banshees?

• I always think of Tim Wakefield as something of a Yankee killer, perhaps because of his efforts in the 2003 and '04 postseasons (Aaron Boone excepted), but he has a 7.84 ERA against the Bombers this season and has won something like one of his last eight starts against them. My point: Now would be a real good time to start living up to his reputation.

• I'm beginning to realize that Derek Jeter's barely concealed disdain for A-Rod actually reflects pretty well on the captain. Who knew that judging a person's character was an intangible?

All right, to the ol' ballyard . . .

FIRST INNING
. . . and while we're still writing pecking out our lame intro, the Yankees go 1-2-3, with Mike Lowell throwing out Captain Jetes on play right out of the Brooks Robinson Gold Glove Handbook. Not a bad start for Knucksie.

Here's one of those wasted early opportunities that sometimes come back to haunt you. The Sox load the bases with two outs on a walk by Papi, a single by Manny, and another walk to the rotting corpse of J.D. Drew, but Lowell grounds to One-Step Range Jeter to get Chien-Ming Wang off the hook. Seems to me he's one of those guys who tends to settle down if you don't get to him early, so this might be one we're lamenting later.

SECOND INNING
Tom Werner is seated alongside Christie Brinkley. If they're actually a couple, then that's a major upgrade from Katie Couric. In baseball terms, that's like trading Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson.

A-Rod's leading off the inning. Surprisingly, he does not come to the plate to the strains of Motley Crue's "Girls, Girls, Girls." He works a walk. By the way, would it be cruel to suggest that Mrs. A-Rod is a first-team member of the Butterface All-Stars? ("Yeah, dude, her body's hot, but her face . . .") It would be? Okay, then let's just say A-Rod always does what he can to ensure he's the prettiest one in the room.

Wakefield is threatening to turn this one into a blowout early, and not the way we'd hoped. After A-Rod's walk, he whiffs Jorge Posada, but Robinson Cano, one of the main culprits in the Yankees' offensive underachievement, cranks one into the rightfield seats to make it 2-0, Yankees. Bobby Abreu (the Yankees' version of J.D. Drew) then doinks one off the wall, and Wakefield walks the next three hitters (including Benedict Damon with the bases loaded), to make it 3-0, Last-Place Team. Fortunately, Jeter hits into a 6-4-3 double-play on the first pitch he sees to limit the damage. Intangibles!

Dustin Pedroia pokes a double to right, putting runners at second and third with one out, and I have to admit the little feller is winning me over. I still wonder how he gets away with swinging like a righthanded-hitting Reggie Jackson up there, but what's going on with him right now seems to follow the pattern of his entire career dating back to college: he struggles at first in adjusting to each new level, but eventually he gets comfortable and becomes a very productive hitter.

After Julio Lugo plates Coco Crisp with an RBI groundout to cut the lead to 3-1, Kevin Youkilis works a walk after taking a ball three that everyone in the ballpark the home plate umpire thought was a strike. That's the kind of respect you get when you're hitting .354 and have a 22-game hitting streak. Papi, who has jokingly referred to himself as Ichiro during his recent power outage (16 games without a homer), Suzukis one to left to score Pedroia. Then Manny follows with one of his patented yup-he's-locked-in ropes to right to load the bases, pulling his incredulous how-did-you-not-score? comedy routine when he sees Youkilis still standing at third. Unfortunately, Manny is probably right in wondering why DeMarlo Hale didn't take a chance, considering that Drew is up next, and Drew pops to third to kill the rally, just as you, me, and Manny expected he would do.


THIRD INNING
One out, and here's A-Rod again. Got an email from a reader this morning suggesting Dr. Charles and the Red Sox production team should play the snippet of the seagulls from "Finding Nemo" chirping "Mine! Mine! Mine!" on the scoreboard every time he prances to the plate. I suppose I'm not doing it justice if you haven't seen the movie, but hey, I thought it was a clever idea. However, the Sox fans in the third base boxes apparently had their own creative ways of taunting A-Rod tonight - there are a lot of dudes wearing masks with a blonde woman's face. Whatever it takes, I guess. Of course, the best way to get to him is to make him look like a fool on the field, and Manny does just that, playing A-Rod's wall ball perfectly and making his trademark, oddly effective quick-release throw to nail him by five feet at second. It must have been a long walk back to the dugout, though at least he got to check out what he must have thought were some hottie blondes on the way. Anyway, it's an easy inning for Wakefield.

Doug Mirabelli is now a sizzling 2-for-his-last-23 after singling to left past A-Rod (still checking out the masked blondes) and Jeter (still shooting hate lasers at A-Rod). Crisp, who reached on a fielder's choice and swiped second, holds up at third, and the Sox have something brewing.

Pedroia, a gritty, gutty little gamer whom you'll recall I've championed all along, doubles to left, and it's 3-3. Also, Hideki Matsui plays left field like he's blindfolded. Just thought I should mention that.

Don Orsillo, my favorite vinyl-covered automaton, mentions a stat that everyone's been repeating the past few days . . . and damned if its not one that's worth repeating again. When Roger Clemens gave Suzyn Waldman the most pleasure she's had in years by - goodness gracious! - showing up in Steinbrenner's box, the Yankees were 5.5 games back of the Sox. Four weeks later, they're 13.5 back, which means they've lost two games per week in the standings since the Rocket's announcement. Man, I do love that stat.

FOURTH INNING
So I abandon my post here at the keyboard for a minute to help Mrs. TATB put the kids to bed, and I come back just in time to see the Yankees, with the bases loaded already, take a 4-3 lead on a wild pitch. Time to get Wakefield out of there, and don't let me ever mistake him for a Yankee killer again.

Wakefield's still in there, one out, and the Yankees lead, 6-3, now. I rarely have a beef with just about anything Terry Francona does, but seriously, what's he waiting for? It's apparent that Wakefield doesn't have it tonight, and worse, it's one of those nights where, typical of a struggling knuckleballer, he's giving away runs (he's walked in one, another scored on a wild pitch, a third on a passed ball). Don't let this one get out of hand. Get Kyle Snyder in there.

And after another walk . . . here's Snyder, about four batters too late. I knew he was pitching well, but I have to admit, I didn't realize he had a 1.53 ERA. Not too shabby for a long reliever.

Snyder hits A-Rod (unintentionally, we're sad to report), bringing up Posada, who promptly rips a three-run double into the left-field gap, blowing this one open at 9-3. It's a six-run inning, the Yankees have batted around, and Wakefield ends up charged with eight runs in 3 2/3 innings. Not quite what we had in mind at the beginning of the night.

An eight-pitch inning for Wang, who's helped by Manny double-play grounder, his team-high, Rice-in-'87-like ninth of the season. Drew also grounds to second. At this point, he should change his number from 7 to 4-3.

FIFTH INNING
Uh-oh. Lowell, who was hit by a pitch earlier in the game, is replaced by Eric Hinske. Given that Lowell leads the Sox in homers and RBIs, it's fair to say his absence for any length of time would be damaging. Here's hoping it's just precautionary.

I keep hearing how Bobby Abreu looks indifferent at best these days, but man, I don't think the Sox have gotten him out since he came over from the Phillies. He just clanged his second double of the night off the wall. And who said the Yankees weren't hitting, anyway?

Just as Lloyd Bridges once picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue, I apparently picked a bad day to start liveblogging the Sox. (Snyder just walked Melky Cabrera, the Yankees' seventh freakin' free-pass of the night.) So we're going to change gears a little bit here if/until the Sox get back into the game and comment on a few peripheral Sox-Yankees items.

• Seems like every time I read about one of Mike Timlin's rehab appearances at Pawtucket, he's giving up a run and a couple of hits per inning, which has done nothing to alter my suspicion that he's cooked. I appreciate him for all he did from 2003-05 (he was as guilty as anyone for what happened last August, IMO), but it's because of those watercolor memories that I worry Francona will be tempted to use him in crucial situations, something he hasn't been able to handle for some time now. I'm not saying I think he should hang it up . . . but it might not be the worst thing, just to save Tito from the temptation.

• Looks like Jason Giambi might be done for the season after injuring his foot "circling the bases" against the Blue Jays. I'm guessing "circling the bases" is a euphemism for A) "getting his foot shattered by a Selig henchman" or B) "sticking the needle in so far that it chipped a bone," but the way he was going, this might be a blessing for the Yankees anyway. It gives them the chance to play Cabrera regularly in the outfield while DHing Damon, Abreu, or Matsui, which probably makes them a better defensive team while keeping the old dudes' legs reasonably fresh.

• Is it me, or has Jerry Remy seriously toned down the pimping of his RemDawg trinkets this season? Wonder if he got a talking-to from Dr. Charles. Probably woke up one morning to find Wally the Green Monster's severed head in his bed.

• I don't care what he low K-rate suggests. If Wang can stay healthy - and judging by his minor-league track record, that's a big if - he can be a very successful pitcher for years to come. That sinker is an incredibly effective out-pitch, and it's not like he's a slopballer - his radar-gun readings reach the mid-'90s. I'm not going to hold it against him because he's uncommonly efficient.

• Papi's on pace for 29 homers. That's hardly lousy, but it makes you wonder how much those hamstrings are bothering him.

• After Wakefield's performance tonight, I officially consider Julian Tavarez the fourth starter.

• I usually forget to mention these things here, but while I think of it, my latest column on FOXsports.com is up, just as it is every Friday. Check it out if you get the chance.

• Quick note from the game: Torre just got tossed after the third-base ump blantantly blew it and called Bobby Abreu out on an attempted steal of third. My question is this: Why's he stealing third in a 9-3 game? That strikes me as something A-Rod would do. Also, Drew has left the game with a hamstring strain. There are no words for what a flop he has been so far.

• Even though he has just six fewer RBIs (31) at the moment than he had all of last year, I still don't get the Sox front office's fascination with Julio Lugo. He's played better than expected at short, but he's a mediocre offensive player who isn't getting on base nearly enough from the leadoff spot. Tell me again what was wrong with Orlando Cabrera?

Well, we're in the eighth now, it's still 9-3, Yankees, Remy and Orsillo are getting giggly, and it looks like the Sox lead over New York will be 12.5 in tomorrow's newspapers. I guess that 16.5 thing isn't going to happen after all. But I do want to mention, before I sign off for the night (assuming there is no miracle comeback in the works), that even if the Yankees sweep this series and cut the Sox lead to 10.5, I am entirely convinced that the Sox will win the American League East this season. There is zero chance that the Yankees can re-enact their comeback of '78, for one reason more than any other: Terry Francona is a far superior manager to Don Zimmer. He knows how to handle a pitching staff and manipulate a bench, he doesn't bury quality players with petty grudges, and he'll pace his regulars over the course of the season so they aren't deep-fried come September. Futher, this Sox team is much more well-rounded than the '78 crew that had a fearsome lineup, no bench (see: Frank Duffy), and a mediocre starting rotation after The Eck, while these Yankees, with their endless pitching question marks and aging core, are vastly inferior to the Guidry-Gossage-Reggie club that went 100-63 that season. The only people that think this severely flawed Yankees team has a chance to make up 12.5 games over the Red Sox in the coming months are the same ones who refuse to admit that the events of October, 2004 changed the dynamic in this rivalry forever. The Sox are better, and assuming there is no deluge of injuries, the final standings will confirm as much.


Postscript:As Remy just noted, things just got interesting for the rest of the weekend. With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Youkilis just got drilled in the shoulder by Scott Proctor (pitching for the 2,838th straight game), and Youks, who extended his hitting streak to 23 earlier in the game and thus probably figures he shouldn't have to put up with such b.s., started heading toward Proctor as the benches emptied. Proctor was ejected immediately, arguing the dismissal vehemently, and it appeared Posada was trying to convince Youkilis that the near-beaning was accidental and not retaliation for Cano getting hit in the top half of the inning. Whether it was intentional or accidental, it's fair to say that the odds of A-Rod getting a faceful of Varitek's glove tomorrow just increased exponentially.

Nine innings: 05.09.07

Playing nine innings while feeling a whole lot better about the Hanley Ramirez trade these days . . .

1. Okay, so maybe we went a little over the top with our Kinison-like rant in ripping Roger Clemens the other day. It's just that of all of the things about Clemens that aggravate us - the convenient "tweaks" when a game isn't going his way, his knack for shrinking when the moment calls for him to stand tall, his demand for more perks than any diva in Hollywood, his phony aw-shucks demeanor - it's the oaf's chronic dishonesty that bugs us the most. Why did he have to stand there in Steinbrenner's lair and, peering smugly at the Yankee Stadium peons below, try to claim that he's back with the Yankees because they so quaintly "came and got him out of Texas"? Why can't he just admit that it's about what it has always been about with him: THE MONEY, STUPID! There's nothing wrong with that, particularly in this day and age, and yet the disingenuous rube thinks he's fooling us by claiming it's about everything but the cash. Who's he trying to kid? Remember when his name came up in the Jason Grimsley case? His first concern was that it was going to cost him endorsements. He's made $100-something million in his career, Koby, Kielbasa, Klambake, Kareem, and all the other "K" kids are financially set for several lifetimes, and yet he's more worried about losing his five-figure gig pitching Preparation H than about how being pegged as a juicer would affect his legacy. And still, in the face of his transparent greed, he has the hubris to act as if his cause is something far more noble than further engorging his bank account. What a fraud. Let me just make one more point before I go ballistic again: Had the Red Sox somehow outbid the Yankees in this charade - and given the desperation in the Bronx, that was not going to happen - you know he'd have fed us a similar line of Texas bull about how much coming home to Boston means to him and all of that treacly, Dr. Steinberg-scripted nonsense. Would we have eaten it up? Well, I suddenly find myself looking forward to watching Randy Moss play for my favorite team after years of despising the guy, so in the spirit of the truth I'll admit that, yeah, I'd swallow a heaping helping of hypocrisy and probably cheer Clemens, even though I'd hate myself in the morning. Hey, we sports fans are suckers for sentiment. Just ask Roger.

2. Unless David Ortiz actually enjoys the WEEI-driven conjecture about his own enhanced performance since he became a Red Sox, he'd be wise to refrain from any further head-scratching proclamations that he doesn't believe Barry Bonds knowingly used steroids. We appreciate Papi's good (if ill-informed) intentions, but he must realize than any time a slugger of this era speaks up in defense of Bonds, he immediately becomes a target of steroid suspicion himself. As for a certain other Sox player who weighed in on Bonds Tuesday, let's just leave it at this: When Curt Schilling had his chance before Congress to opine on steroids' impact on his profession, he clammed up to the point that we half expected him to pull the Sammy Sosa No hablo Ingles routine. Please, spare us the sanctimony now.

3. The pining for Alex Cora to play every day has died down now that Dustin Pedroia has begun to look like he belongs, and that's a good thing. While Cora is certainly a valuable member of the roster - this isn't the first time I've said he's the best utility player the Sox have had in my lifetime, and it won't be the last - he's a 31-year-old who has a .246 average in 10 big-league seasons. As a certain local football coach might say, he is what he is. The Sox are wise to give Pedroia an extended chance, and should he prove incapable of handling it, Cora should remain in the reserve role in which he thrives, while someone out of the Graffanino/Grudzielanek/Loretta cookie-cutter is brought in to take the majority of the at-bats.

4. If you thought you've been saying, "Did you see that catch Coco made?" on a frequent basis lately . . . well, according to Bill James via Seth Mnookin, there's a good reason for that, and it's not because you're suffering a flashback to that excruciatingly ubiquitous NESN commercial of a season ago. Crisp has been dazzling in center field lately, averaging roughly one Web Gem every other game or so, and at the plate and on the bases he's starting to look like the dynamic player the Sox coveted as Johnny Damon's successor. Hmmm, maybe he's going to thrive here after all.

5. You've probably heard this by now, but it's worth hearing again, because this hilariously shrill snippet of Yankee propaganda is so over-the-top that even Georgie Porgie mouthpiece John Sterling seemed taken aback. This will never get old. Heck, I'm putting it into heavy rotation on the iPod just to bring a little more comedy to my day. And for the record, I'm pretty sure Suzyn Waldman is what Glenn Geffner would sound like if he worked for the Yankees, idolized Liza Minnelli, and had a more masculine voice.

6. Toronto's Vernon Wells is becoming the Joe Carter of era, an outstanding all-around player who spends an inordinate amount of his time absolutely slaughtering Red Sox pitching. And like Carter, his predecessor by a generation as a Blue Jays signature player, Wells is an affable star whose ego has not swollen in proportion to his salary, as this fun story indicates.

7. Thirty-one games into his Boston tenure, Julio Lugo is the same guy I saw all those years in Tampa Bay: occasionally exciting, often erratic, and not someone you're terribly interested in having on your favorite team. I'm not going to go all Lobel on you and wonder why the Sox let Alex Gonzalez depart, because his currently stellar offensive numbers will be subpar once the summer is over. But I still don't understand Theo Epstein's fascination with Lugo, let alone for the 4-year, $36-million price tag.

8. Despite his Mark Clear imitation in his 2007 debut last night, we're going to stick by our binky and repeat our preseason prediction that Devern Hansack will be a valuable contributor to the Red Sox pitching staff this season. His command was clearly on the fritz last night; judging by what I saw of him last summer in Portland, that's highly unusual. Hansack is a strike-throwing machine with good movement on his low-90s fastball, a decent changeup, and a tight, sharp slider that is a major-league out pitch, as Frank Thomas found out last night. He's 29, with an unusual backstory and hardly the Baseball America pedigree, but you can hold me to this: Given a fair chance, Hansack will succeed in the big leagues.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



Macha, the less-than-beloved former A's manager who once employed Terry Francona as his bench coach, is the latest addition to NESN's cadre of studio analysts. The early verdict: Though he's got about as much charisma as a sanitary sock, he brings an insider's knowledge when he talks about players' strengths and weaknesses. We still wish The Eck had the gig every night, but Macha has the potential to be a decent second option.

Questionable content

Digging through the email box (and the cobwebs in my mind) to answer questions both real and imagined . . .

From reader Steve K.: The Sox just *****-slapped the Yankees again. They're on pace to win something like 110 games. I'm a believer. This team looks stacked, and Manny's not even hitting yet. So when do I get my playoff tickets?

You know, I like to pretend I'm the voice of reason around here, never too high after a big win, never too low after an agonizing loss, yada yada . . . but damn, it's pretty much impossible for even an accomplished cynic not to be sky-high about the 2007 Red Sox's long-term chances right now, isn't it? Just consider the positives in this 15-7 start: Josh Beckett is having an April matched only by Pedro and the Babe in Red Sox annals, and not only does he look like a pitcher who's found his groove, but he's talking like one, admitting he made the mistake of throwing "hard, harder, and hardest" during his first season in Boston . . . The expensive new guys, from Julio Lugo (he's been nothing less than dynamic) to J.D. Drew (their most complete player) to Daisuke Matsuzaka (who flashes an ace's knack for limiting the damage in the innings where his command goes on the fritz), have justified every zero on their paychecks so far . . . Papi is still Papi, god bless him, and the offense will find another gear when Manny finds his form any moment now . . . Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell look rejuvenated, suggesting that reports of their demise (ahem) were greatly exaggerated . . . The middle relief, in particular Hideki Okajima, has been far better than expected, and Joel Pineiro looks improved with each appearance . . . Jonathan Papelbon is doing a spot-on Goose Gossage imitation. All he needs is the fu manchu . . . and Terry Francona continues to be the most underrated manager in the game, especially considering all of the b.s. about bloody socks and the like that he has to put up with here. So, uh, yeah, we're pretty enthusiastic about the summer ahead. Does 120 wins sound unreasonable?

From Greasymustacheandastainedtanktop, Mom's extra bedroom, The Bronx: Yo, please tell me the standings are printed upside down. This ain't really happening, is it? My whole self-image depends on the Yankees' success! If they suck, why, that means I do too! YO!

It's all true, Greasystache, and can you imagine where they'd be without A-Rod's otherworldly start? Oh, right . . . last place. Heh. But I think we all know better than to write the Yankees off in April. Once the weather heats up and Hideki Matsui gets healthy, their lineup will be relentless enough that they'll win a lot of 12-9 games, and Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina should steady that wretched rotation with 30 or so wins between them. And you have to figure they'll add a few bullpen arms and whatever else they need at the trade deadline. However, and I hesitate to say this, but something feels different this time around, doesn't it? Maybe it's that Joe Torre already seems to be managing out of desperation at the expense of his bullpen's health, or maybe it's the fact that Mariano Rivera (zero saves) is 38 years old and suddenly looks very hittable, or maybe it's the fact that bringing up a clearly not-ready-for-prime-time Philip Hughes reeks of desperation . . . but these just don't look like the Yankees we've grown to loathe so much. Yeah, it's only the season's beginning. But from what we've seen so far, it's not out of the question that in the Bronx, it's the beginning of the end.

From reader Dave R.: I know it's pretty much impossible to guess what the Patriots will do in the draft. But you don't you figure they have to take a linebacker at either #24 or #28? It's their only legit weakness.

Knowing Belichick and Pioli, they'll probably take another tight end and a punter, thereby causing Mel Kiper's head to explode. (We're guessing his hair would remain intact, however). Actually, I think they will take a linebacker at 24 - I'm just not sure which one it will be, though if I were throwing together a mock draft, I'd probably go with Jon Beason from Miami, who's said to be fast, versatile, and devoted to football, all traits that would make him a nice fit in Foxboro. I do think it's entirely possible that they'll take two linebackers in the first round, since Michigan's David Harris has reportedly been climbing up their draft board in recent days and there might be other appealing alternatives such as Penn State's Paul Posluszny. All things being equal, though, I hope they add some depth in the defensive backfield with the 28th pick, though I have no idea whom they might favor from the Griffin/Houston/Meriweather group. Oh, and about taking another tight end: I was joking earlier, but if Miami's gifted Greg Olsen is on the board, I bet the Pats will at least give him some consideration, especially if Dave Thomas's injury is more serious than we know. Given the depth of their roster, they may be in Best Player Available mode from the beginning. So I guess what I'm saying is that we have no freakin' clue what will happen, though it's worth noting that Belichick, in a delicious bit of candor, revealed on WEEI this afternoon that there are players projected to go in the first round whom the Patriots have rated as late-round picks or free agents. Seriously, how cool is that? I'd pay good money to get a peek at their draft board. You know it looks like no one's mock draft.

From reader John W.: Chad: A couple posts ago, you said you weren't ready to pass judgment on Glenn Geffner. Ready yet? I am. I hate to sound like an old fart, but he suuuuucks. It's not that he's new or young... and although he's an internal hire, he doesn't come across as too obvious a homer. But he has no sense of pacing. He's constantly talking too fast, frequently tripping over his own tongue. He tries way too hard to fit nuggets of predigested data in between pitches. At its best, baseball on radio has a relaxed, welcoming atmosphere. Sure, you can get excited when there's a key play; but otherwise, you gotta take time to breathe. He almost... emphasize almost... makes me long for the Trupiano era.

Slowly nodding in agreement . . . Actually, I'm still trying to give Geffner the benefit of the doubt, if only because I was so anti-Trupiano that it probably wouldn't be good form to rip his replacement so soon. So I'll leave it at this for now: I think Dave O'Brien is outstanding, and I wish his ESPN commitments didn't keep him from doing all of the Sox games. As for Geffner . . . well, the less said the better, I suppose, and that goes for him and his excessive dependence on the media guide as well as me. Assuming settles down, talks slower and less often, and lets Castiglione lead the way, he should at least be tolerable. Hey, at least he's not Troop.

From SlappyVonPurplelips, Scott Boras's lair: Is Tom Brady the Derek Jeter of football? Because if he is, that means I'll have to hate his guts too, even though he's never made me change positions or hung me out to dry with the fans or borrowed my rouge without returning it or anything.

Well, no, because Tom Terrific's teams have won championship(s) since he became captain, so that's a major difference right there. But I get where this question is coming from: Pretty-boy Brady just signed a $12 million deal to endorse Stetson cologne. Pretty-boy Jeter has his own brand of cologne called, I believe, One-Step Range To The Left. (Whoops, Google informs me it's called Driven. Close enough, I say.) Anyway, here's the difference. Stetson goes for a rugged, masculine image, something out of the wild west. Driven is produced by Avon, which caters to girly-girls, blue-haired grannies, and Yankee infielders. Edge, Stetson, though if they make Brady wear a stupid cowboy hat or cuddle a friggin' goat like GQ did, we'll have no choice but to call it a draw.

From reader Kevin J.: Dreaming that there is some luck of the Irish with the ping-pong balls May 22 and we're vindicated for losing out on Duncan 10 years ago, who do you take? Oden, or Durant?

Oden, without a moment's hesitation. His presence would improve the Celtics' defense so much immediately that even Gerald Green might look like a competent defender with Oden watching his back. Listen, I love Durant and he'd be hell of a consolation prize in the No. 2 slot, but the claims that he's a once-in-a-generation player are more than a little hyperbolic. He'll be a great scorer in the NBA, a perennial All-Star who combines some of the best attributes of Tracy McGrady, Carmelo Anthony, and Dirk Nowitzki. But Oden is a game-changer on defense, an undeniable presence whom you can see eventually anchoring a championship team. He is the franchise player this franchise is desperate for.

From Petey M., Flushing, N.Y.: Where you been, man?

Hibernating. To be honest, I've been overwhelmed with some real-world stuff lately, including having a tree wipe out the power lines in our neighbor's yard, leaving us without power without 3 1/2 days. Let's just say I'm a lot more sympathetic to Nicholson's character in "The Shining" after that experience. The Fox column (latest edition here, if you didn't see it) also has interfered with my blogging productivity more than I thought it would. But now that we have lights and electricity and such, I vow to be a more consistent correspondent over the next few weeks, particularly since the Boston.com affiliation/link should be starting up soon.

From reader Jeff P.: Keep running all the dolled-up pictures of Jenna Fisher [sic] you want, Finn. You'll never convince me she's anything more than plain, especially by Hollywood standards. She does do a good job on the show though ... so what do you think will happen in the final episodes? Will she hook up with Halpert or what?

First of all, People magazine disagrees with you, Steve, and yes, I'm glad to see they received all of my letters of nomination. Second, Stevie Wonder called, and he wants his retinas back. (I know, that's a comeback only Costanza could love. So sue me.) Anyway, here are a few predictions for the season's final three episodes:

• Jan reveals she's pregnant with a Michael Scott spawn: Terrifying twist, huh? A couple of the cast members have mentioned that Jan will have a major life change soon, and I can't help but remember that she kept saying she felt queasy in the episode at the boss's house. I am a little surprised they'd play the baby card so soon, though.

• Karen will be offered a corporate job in New York, and Jim will have decide whether to stay or go: The gorgeous Rashida Jones, who's done the near impossible by making Karen immensely likable as the woman standing between Pam and Jim, landed a lead role in a pilot on Fox, and reportedly will only be on The Office on occasion next year, if it all. Sending her to New York seems to be a convenient way for the writers to ease out her character while causing a compelling cliffhanger at the season's end.

• Pam will tell Jim exactly how she feels: For all of Michael's antics and Dwight's beet-and-Angela-loving weirdness and Jim's prankster geniality, good-hearted Pam is the show's fulcrum, and the underlying theme this season has been her quest to overcome her fear of rejection and summon the strength to take some chances and get what she wants out of life. The show's savvy writers have a talent for taking us in a perfectly believable direction that we didn't see coming, but it's difficult not to assume that everything that has occured this season (the reconciliation and final breakup with Roy, her overhearing Oscar's snarky comments at the art show about her not being honest with herself) is setting up a situation in which she takes the ultimate chance and puts her heart on the line for Jim. In fact, given Jenna Fischer's habit of subtly tipping off her blog readers to upcoming crucial Jim/Pam moments, we can probably pinpoint the episode when it will happen, considering she recently wrote this: "The episode not to be missed is Beach Day [May 10]. Seriously. Don't miss it."

From my own simple mind: Anything else you wanted to add, dummy?

Just this: While I wasn't a Hardy Boys savant and never imagined that Mo Lucas and Billy Ray Bates were my friends (though I did feel a certain kinship with Kevin Kunnert), my experience with David Halberstam's "The Breaks of the Game" was remarkably similar to Hollywood Sports Guy's remembrance today. "Breaks," Halberstam's compelling, meticulous account of the post-Walton Portland Trail Blazers and the addled NBA of the late '70s, was one of the first grown-up books I ever read, and I love it as much today as I did when I was 13 years old. (The Swen Nater/Sidney Wicks airport scene is worth the cover price alone.) When I heard the terribly sad news that Halberstam, a far more accomplished writer and journalist than anyone who attempted to pay tribute to him, was killed in a car accident early this week at age 73, I immediately thought of "Breaks," my affection for that book, and my admiration of the man who wrote it. I'll make the effort to read it again soon, my own silly little flashback/homage. If you haven't read it yourself, please do, particularly if you've enjoyed Halberstam's other renowned sports books like "The Summer of '49" or "October, 1964." There's no book I'd recommend more.

As for today's Completely Random Football Card:


Sparks was a pretty decent corner for the Giants and the Cowboys in the '90s, but mark these words: his 17-year-old daughter is going to be more famous and have a more lucrative and successful career than her pop ever did. While beatboxing Blake Lewis remains my boy on American Idol, I have to admit my wife was right all along: Jordin Sparks is the class of this year's underwhelming crop of contenders, and she deserves to win the thing, something Mrs. TATB was saying when Entertainment Weekly was putting Jordin's odds of winning at something like 100-1. The girl can sing the hell out of just about any song, and unlike some of AI's better vocalists through the years, she has the right look. Her old man - who, frighteningly, is only six months older than me - surely must be prouder of her than of anything he ever accomplished on the football field.

Analyzing Bill James's Red Sox projections, Part 1

Last season, Bill James projected that Kevin Youkilis would bat .278 with 14 homers and 68 RBIs in 149 games in his first full season as a big leaguer.

James, being a calculator-toting nerdling who obviously wouldn't know a baseball if one beaned him in his headgear, was, of course, wrong. Youkilis batted .279 with 13 homers and 72 RBIs in 147 games. The Mind of Bill James, my $#@.

All right, so you've got us: we were just trying to sound like your standard bitter, closed-minded, old-school, stat-mocking, Goodwill-wardrobed baseball writer there. (Our model was Murray Chass, if you must know.) As you probably realize if you've visited this space previously, we unabashadly admire James not only for the pioneering ways he has enhanced baseball analysis, but because he is one hell of a fun writer to read. There aren't too many people who can mesh words and numbers into a compelling package. He can, and you bet I'm glad he's a Red Sox employee.

Of course, that doesn't mean we always agree with his conclusions. For instance, I'm not sure how he can project Trot Nixon to hit 223 career homers, when the calcifying 33-year-old outfielder has just 133 right now and has totaled just 27 over the past three seasons. By my calculations, it would take Trot 10 years to hit the 90 he needs to fulfill James's projection. At the rate he's going, I'm not sure Trot will have all of his limbs a decade from now.

Nevertheless, it all makes for fun debate. And with that in mind, we here at TATB cracked open the 2007 Bill James Handbook that always seems to be within an arm's length, and took a look at James's 2007 stat projections for each relevant member of the Red Sox. Check out the numbers he came up with (and our take on said numbers), and let us know how accurate you think he'll be:

THE LINEUP
Julio Lugo
James's projection: .277-11-55 in 564 at-bats; 25 steals
TATB's take: Alex Gonzalez hit .255 with 9 homers and 50 RBIs in nearly 200 fewer at-bats lats season, and the 2006 season highlight reel is proof that he is just about peerless defensively. In other words, Lugo is going to have to surpass James's projections and play better D than he is known for if Sox fans are going to stop reminding him about his predecessor.

Kevin Youkilis
.283-14-77 in 584 at-bats; 101 runs; .395 OBP
These numbers seem about right for Youkilis, although you'd hope he could avoid another late-season fade and perhaps increase his power in his second season as a regular. Is 20 homers too much to ask?

Papi
.285-47-138 in 601 at-bats
I'm somewhat surprised that he forecasts a 7-homer dropoff given that Papi has increased his home run total each season since 2000 (10-18-20-31-41-47-54). Then again, how much better can the big guy possibly get? Do I hear 60 taters?

Manny
.305-37-118 in 512 at-bats; 1.004 OPS
For all of the kvetching about his quirks, there is no more reliable player in baseball in terms of offensive production. So it is that James predicts another typical Manny season, one that would leave him with 507 homers. I don't know about you, but I'm planning on being in Cooperstown for his Hall of Fame speech a dozen years or so from now. It's worth noting that James pegs Manny to play 140 games, which means 22 days' worth of mind-numbing programming for the Big Show is already preset.

J.D. Drew
.283-24-82 in 499 at-bats
A lot of the stat gurus think Drew will be hindered by Fenway power-wise and is more likely to finish in the high teens in home runs. I'm fine with swapping a few homers for a few doubles. All that really matters is that Drew stays healthy and on the field, because he will produce if he plays.

Mike Lowell
.273-18-77 in 502 at-bats
Given that his bat was as slow as Heather Mills's 40-yard-dash time in the second half last season, I'd take these numbers without a moment's hesitation. At least we know his defense will be stellar.

Jason Varitek
.259-17-69 in 468 at-bats
Ditto what I said for Lowell. I don't doubt that Varitek has the will to bounce back. It's just that 35-year-old catchers coming off knee surgery rarely do.

Coco Crisp
.284-11-54 in 511 at-bats; 23 steals
With good health, ol' Covelli Loyce eclipses these numbers with ease and duplicates the .300-16-69 line he put up in his last season with the Tribe. Let's just hope that finger is finally healed, because at 27, there's still time for him to become a dynamic offensive player.

Dustin Pedroia
.284-10-72 in 619 at-bats; 47 doubles
And with these numbers comes a dilemma: Finding a place for an AL Rookie of the Year Trophy that's bigger than he is.

(Pitchers and other suspects coming up in tomorrow's post.)

Saturday night's all right for fighting

Quick thoughts while wondering if Bridget Moynihan will get "Moving the Chains" from Santa . . .

• Carmelo Anthony is probably my NBA favorite player to watch. His image may be hip-hop, but his offensive game is decidedly old-school, especially his gorgeous high-arcing midrange jumper. And his immense talent is exceeded only by his charisma - the kid's got the easiest smile since Magic. So it is with some semblance of disappointment that I must admit the truth: Anthony a damn fool, and I put it that mildly only because I'm trying to avoid language that some might find offensive. The evidence that there's something sinister behind Anthony's smile has been mounting for some time now: His appearance in the underground "Stop snitching" video in his old Baltimore neighborhood was alarming at best, and he's had his share of maturity issues with coaches and teammates in Denver. But last night was the final piece of evidence necessary to convince this jury. There simply is no justification for his brawl-escalating sucker punch of the Knicks' Mardy Collins last night. A player of his stature should be above that. It's another black-eye for the league in the lingering wake of the unforgettable Detroit-Indiana brawl, it's going to devastate Anthony's when David Stern nails with at least a 10-game suspension, and it ruins what's left of his reputation as one of the league's signature players. What a fool. What a shame.

• I know they've won five in a row, and the never-ending Iverson rumors seem to have unified them as a team. Still, after watching Greg Oden do his man-against-boys thing today in Ohio State's decimation of Cincinnati, I'd just as soon the Celtics tank it, pray the ping-pong balls bounce their way, and position themselves to land the NBA's next great center. He's that good.

• My record of predicting Patriots games this season is about as pathetic as the Texans' won-lost record, so take this with a shaker full of salt, but . . . well, I'm nervous as hell about today's game. I worry that Vince Wilfork's absence will leave a massive running lane through the heart of the Patriots' defense. I worry that Andre Johnson will find the Patriots' decimated defensive backfield to his liking. I worry that David Carr will play at least as well as his fellow Class of '02 draft bust Joey Harrington did a week ago. And I worry about the ability of Tom Brady and the Misfits to move the ball with any effectiveness if Laurence Maroney and Ben Watson are in street clothes. Do I think the Pats will win? Even in their wounded and weary state, I'd never bet against them against a subpar opponent. But this game isn't going to be the automatic "W" it appeared to be when we first glanced at the schedule, and frankly, they could really use an easy one right about now..

• If you ever wondered why Gabe Kapler was so popular at Fenway despite his feeble production, well, we're going to pretend it's not because the chicks dug his pecs. Instead, we like to believe the reason he probably accumulated more standing ovations than homers in his Sox career is because Kapler understood and appreciated what it meant to wear the Red Sox uniform, and articulated that understanding and appreciation remarkably well. Consider his thoughtful comments upon announcing his retirement to take a minor league managing gig in the Sox system:

"I have been thinking about this transition for many years, and believe this to be the right time. This will afford me the opportunity to make an impact in the lives of young men, not only to help them develop as baseball players, but also more importantly, as human beings. I had ample opportunity to continue my playing career, but feel that I can give so much more as a manager and a leader. I feel this decision will be extraordinarily fulfilling to me personally and professionally and look forward to tackling the challenges that lie ahead. I am ecstatic that the Red Sox, which I think is the best organization in baseball, believe in me enough to give me this opportunity. I see the minor leagues not only as a place where I can learn and develop, but I'm going to be rewarded emotionally and spiritually. To have an extreme impact on somebody's life can be much more powerful than hitting a home run."

Yup, I'm pretty sure that's exactly the way Casey Stengel would have put it. Something tells me Kapler is going to do all right for himself in his new career path.

• Man, Gerry Callahan's snide browbeating of Julio Lugo a few mornings ago sure did an effective job of turning me into a Lugo fan. Someone needs to tell the 'EEI zeppelins that Lugo was found not guilty of assaulting his now-ex-wife, and I'd say it's a credit to his character that he was given custody of their children. This is not Wil Cordero, people. I'm not sure why the Sox are so enthralled with him as a ballplayer, but the least we can do is give the person a chance.


• I'm still wondering who's going to be coming out the 'pen with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, but for now I'll give Theo Epstein his props for culling together a relatively deep relief corps by buying low on some previously successful pitchers. Brendan Donnelly likely would be voted Most Likely to Be Found With Sandpaper Taped To His Glove should such a poll be put to his peers, but he's been a very effective setup guy for the Angels through the years, and consistent middle relievers (that's practically an oxymoron) usually cost more than the likes of Phil Seibel. As for J.C. Romero, he's got control problems, both in terms of stuff and temperament, but he's been overpowering in the past, and even during his struggles with the Angels last season, he still retired lefty hitters at around an 80 percent clip. He's worthy of at least a look, and he could end up being a bargain.

• It's funny, but I seem to get just as many comments and emails about "The Office" nowadays as I do about the Sox and Pats. At first I wasn't quite sure what to make of it - the last thing I want is to turn it into my own personal "The O.C./90210," if you get my drift - but I'm pleased to know that so many other people are into this brilliantly written and acted show; it's criminally underrated, both by the Nielsen boxes and the awards shows. (When will John Krasinski get some respect for his nuanced performance as heartbroken good-guy Jim? Or how about an Emmy nod for Rainn Wilson, who becomes Dwight Schrute? And I'm guessing you know how our heart races for the radiant Jenna Fischer, who plays Pam with an irresistible balance of sweetness and subversiveness.) This week's episode, "A Benihana Christmas," was as pitch-perfect as any in Season 3, from Dwight's Christmas miracle . . . to Michael's "bold" Photoshop blunder . . . to Jim's revealing pep-talk . . . to Michael "marking" the waitress . . . to Karen and Pam teaming up to take down Angela. This show is so consistently, gut-bustingly hilarious, I almost forget about the underlying theme of loneliness. You might even say it gives me goosebumps.

Winter ball

When I grabbed the PowerBook and plunked down on the couch tonight, I intended to peck out a First and 10 column on state of the Patriots after their grinder of a victory over the wretched Lions Sunday. But with the news that the Sox have finally signed both J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo - I think both of these deals were first rumored during the Lou Gorman administration - baseball again grabbed the headlines in the sports pages of my mind. (You have no idea how much I wish I could cover these winter meetings. Man, it looks like such a blast. Maybe someday.) Anyway, we'll get to the Pats in the next day or so, providing they aren't again trumped by some relevant Red Sox developments. As for today's news, some thoughts we've been meaning to share . . .


• NESN jostled Jerry Remy from hibernation to appear in-studio on its nightly Hot Stove program, and we're glad to report he's as on top of his game now as he would be during a tense July showdown with the Yankees. He brought particular insight regarding Terry Francona's proclamation today that he expects Manny Ramirez to be with the Sox on opening day. Said RemDawg: "Terry Francona wants Manny Ramirez off this team. He wanted him off the team the last six week of the season, and he was adamant about that. Listening to the comments he makes, he's trying to do one of two things: Build up Manny to the rest of baseball so they can trade him, or smooth things out because he knows he's coming back." I'm pretty sure that's the first time I've heard anyone with credibility step up and say definitively that Francona feels Manny is more trouble than he's worth. Remy himself was clearly disgusted with Manny's absence late last season, yet unlike the Gerry Callahans of the media world who can barely suppress an irrational hatred for the goofball left fielder, Remy conceded that he's all but irreplaceable and sounded as if he wasn't dead-set on seeing him leave Boston. "I don't know who you could bring in except for Albert Pujols to make up for the loss of Manny," he said. All in all, it was compelling and rewarding television. Sure, Remy might be a huckster, but there's no one better at cutting to the chase and analyzing the sport. Even in December.


• I'm probably overdoing the Remy stuff here, but I also feel obligated to note how refreshingly blunt he was regarding the acquisition of J.D. Drew: "I haven't heard many good things about him," Remy admitted, before becoming the second prominent media person to compare Drew to Fred Lynn this week, following Peter Gammons's lead. Remy offered an interesting take on his laid-back former teammate: "I believe, and I think [Fred] believes, that if he stayed here his whole career, he'd be a Hall of Fame ballplayer . . . Because Boston pushed him, and sometimes, that works both ways . . . There's extra pressure to perform here, but sometimes you find out that certain guys you don't expect are at their best under pressure." I'd call that a lukewarm endorsement of Drew's chances here, but if the Sox are getting the second coming of Fragile Freddy, I think we'd all be satisfied with that, flaws and all.

• So what's my take on tonight's news? Well, I'm swallowing hard at the length and money of the Drew contract and reluctantly approving of the signing, with the caveat that he's coming here as the No. 5 hitter the Sox desperately need behind Manny and not as Manny's replacement in the four-slot behind Papi. As for his alleged laissez-faire attitude toward the game, my official position is that I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, in part because I hate the idea of running a player out of town before he actually arrives, and in part because I've vacillated so much with my opinion on Drew that three people I respect this week accused me of pulling a Glenn Ordway and trying to have it both ways. And to be honest, I probably did go overboard with the hyperbole in my criticism, particularly by calling him a Cowardly Lion. That does a disservice to his talent, and here's hoping Drew makes me to look like a fool, even if it's apparent that I'm perfectly capable of doing so myself. As for the Julio Lugo deal, I think I can be a little less wishy-washy with this one: The Sox will regret this, they will regret this soon, and they will regret this dearly. I've never understood Theo's fascination with this average, erratic ballplayer, and I'm pretty sure I never will.


• Tom Verducci, a fantastic writer who nonetheless sometimes strikes me as the national beat writer/apologist for the Yankees, was the first to report today that Andy Pettitte could be rejoining Satan's Traveling All-Stars by the end of the week. Man, I hope this doesn't happen. While he's 34 and seems to battle elbow problems with increasing frequency in recent years, there's still a lot to like: He was outstanding in the second half for the Astros last season, he's a better bargain (hell, perhaps a better pitcher) than Barry Zito, he'd offer a huge boost to a Yankees rotation that is pocked by question marks and injuries, and his presence would likely make the Yankees the front-runners for his buddy Roger Clemens once the transparent dope ends his faux-retirement for the 21st consecutive season. Here's hoping the man they call Donkey hangs 'em up or remains in Houston. We don't need the Yankees pulling off a free-agent steal here.

• No matter what happens the rest of the offseason, this is the most encouraging news the Boston Red Sox could possibly receive. And how much do you admire young Jon Lester for the public grace and poise with which he faced his illness? Pretty remarkable person. Given his talent and character, the Sox are blessed to have him.

• As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Here's hoping he's the next beneficiary of John Henry's wallet.

Roster bonus

It's 10:21 p.m. on the eve of December, and at this precise moment the thermometer tells me it's sixty-three bleepin' degrees outside. Did I mention I live in Wells, Maine, where there are usually penguins waddling around in my driveway this time of year? Or that I just came inside from shooting hoops in my driveway in a t-shirt and shorts? At 10 p.m. in freakin' November? Dude, I love global warming!

Anyway, this ridiculously unseasonable weather has me thinking about when all the nights are warm (okay, most of them) and the baseball is again in the air at Fenway. It feels like there should be a game tonight . . . yet once glance at the roster jolts you back to the cold reality of the long days ahead, for the 2007 Red Sox are far from being ready to play ball.

So here's my question to you, homies: When all the transactions have been completed and all of Steve Phillips's scoops have been proven idiotic, what will the Red Sox's opening day roster look like? Here's my best guess, with this disclaimer: Don't hold it against me five months from now. I've got to believe Theo's working on some moves that none of us have considered yet. Actually, let me rephrase that: I hope he's working on some moves that none of us have considered . . . because I'm not too thrilled with the ones we know he is considering. Anyway, here's my 25 . . .

THE LINEUP
SS Julio Lugo
We saw him 19 times a year for, what, five years with the Devil Rays? And never once did I catch myself thinking, "Damn, I'd love to have that Lugo in Boston someday." Are we sure Theo isn't confusing him with Carl Crawford or something?

CF Coco Crisp
He gets a mulligan for his Boston debut - he was just never right after busting his finger. He'll be better in the No. 2 slot, and better in his second season.

DH David Ortiz
It's an insult to the hitter he's become to suggest he'll suffer without Manny. Papi will be fine - on the field and off.

RF J.D. Drew
I'm with Ryan. What's the fascination, Theo? I know the skill-set and the OPS is appealing . . . but damn, it's time to start giving consideration again to a player's mental makeup. I'm tired of watching this supposedly progressive front office throw multimillion contracts to well-known Cowardly Lions who will shrivel under the scrutiny.

LF Wily Mo Pena
His numbers were impressive (.301, 11 homers in 276 at-bats). His power is astounding. So why does he seem like such an easy out?

1B Adrian Gonzalez
Sox have always coveted the former overall No. 1 pick - they nearly plucked him from Texas two years ago - and he'll arrive in the swap for Manny. Quietly had a heck of a breakout season at age 24, particularly given his home park, and is an excellent first baseman. I like him, despite the price.

3B Mike Lowell
I'm skeptical that he'll replicate his bounce-back season at the plate, but the Sox have never had a third baseman with better hands. He'll be an asset again.

C Jason Varitek
It'd be nice if they could sign a backup competent enough to reduce the aging captain's workload to 125-130 games. (Gregg Zaun would have been ideal.) That way, his bat might not be dead by August.

2B Dustin Pedroia
I'm not seeing what they see. Me, I'm seeing Brent Abernathy.

STARTERS
Daisuke Matsuzaka
They'll get the deal with devil (Boras) done, though Lucchino wouldn't be my first choice as designated diplomat. And I can't wait to watch him pitch.

Jonathan Papelbon
Please let his shoulder be healthy . . . please let his shoulder be healthy . . .

Josh Beckett
I trust he's matured after taking so many lumps last season. He'll win 17, minimum, with a sub-4.00 ERA . . . and even on his best days, I'll still catch myself wishing Hanley Ramirez were still one of ours.

Curt Schilling
Considering he famously stirred the *&$* and urged Philly fans to boo J.D. Drew years ago, it's pretty damn hypocritical of him to call out Ryan for wondering why the Sox would be interested in the wildly unpopular outfielder. Schilling will always have a place in my heart for 2004, but I think I'd like him even more if he were born mute.

Tim Wakefield
Can you believe he's going to be 41 this season? Oh, to have mastery of a knuckleball.

RELIEVERS
Scott Linebrink
While I really hope my man Edes is onto something with tonight's Jake Peavy-for-Manny rumor, I fret that Linebrink is the pitcher they'll get instead. While his numbers the last three years are excellent, I'm skeptical of any twice-discarded relief pitcher who rejuvenates his career in San Diego.

Mike Timlin
Even after his collapse last season - check out that alarmingly miniscule K-rate - he's worth a flyer. Have you looked at the pathetic list of free-agent relievers?

Manny Delcarmen
He needs to take the next step, or the pride of Hyde Park may find himself in another organization soon. Here's hoping he gets command of that great stuff and becomes the power arm in the setup role the Sox desperately need.

Hideki Okajima
The Japanese Mike Myers? I can live with that.

Julian Tavarez
Well, at least he makes it interesting, and he's not a bad option as a swingman. Wonder who he'll sucker punch this year.

The Reliever For Whom Kevin Youkilis Is Traded
Just a wild hunch here. Theo has to be up to something off the radar, right? And I think it's possible that Youkilis (whose OPS was .001 lower than some dude named Millar's) will be dealt before he's exposed as Just Another Guy. Think Billy Beane still has his "Moneyball" man-crush? I'd gladly accept Justin Duchscherer in return.

BENCH
Alex Cora
Not much of a stick, but his versatility and smarts make him the best utility player the Sox have had in my lifetime. (What, you prefer Jack Brohamer?)

Eric Hinske
Should be a more than serviceable bat off the bench, though he showed nothing after coming over from Toronto.

David Murphy
Fifth outfielder, setting the stage for a 10-year career as the next Ricky Ledee.

Trot Nixon
Yeah, like he's not going to accept arbitration. I cannot believe Dirty Helmet is going to be here and Manny is not. Sometimes I hate sports.

Mike Lieberthal
Wishful thinking? You try finding a decent backup catcher on this list. Heaven help us, there's a chance Mirabelli might be back, isn't there?

IN THE MIX
Bryce Cox, RP
I'm convinced he'll contribute before Craig Hansen will - in fact, I think he's going to be a huge factor this year.

Devern Hansack, RP
Really knows how to pitch, and has better stuff than a lot of established arms. I'm a believer.

Craig Hansen, RP
I think he'll be fine with time . . . but where's that electric slider we heard so much about coming out of St. John's?

* * *

Well, whaddaya say? Agree with all 25? Think I'm getting dumber by the day? Will they sign Eric Gagne? Trade for Andruw Jones? Have at it in the comments, dopes. If you need me, I'll be at the beach.

18 questions

(Because I'm too freakin' tired to attempt 20 . . .)

1. So now that we've had a couple of days to wrap our heads around this Daisuke Matsuzaka story, let's start with this: What's the best part about the whole delightfully mind-boggling development?

You mean other than imagining the look on Brian Cashman's hangdog face when he realized the Sox had won the bidding? How about this: That despite the shock and incredulity from certain corners regarding the $51.1 million posting price, no one is even hinting it's a bad investment, because no one is even remotely skeptical about his ability to be an ace in the major leagues. It's not by accident that the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Rangers all greatly exceeded the predicted posting price of $20 million - this kid gets nothing but rave reviews, everyone is smitten with his ability, and they were all desperate to obtain him. Also, it's pretty cool that his wife is nicknamed "Rockets." If I'm not mistaken, Johnny Damon's wife's nickname was "Zeppelins."

2. So, doofus, do you want to take a moment to apologize to Buster Olney, who proved correct with his scoop that the Sox won the Matsuzaka sweepstakes, despite your assertion that he bats "somewhere around the Mendoza Line" when he tries to break a story?

Yup. My bad . . . and you bet I'm glad he was right. Hey, I like and respect Olney . . . and I like and respect him even more now that I know he's the Dexter Manley of sports writing. (Whaddaya mean the Onion is satirical?)

3. Why did the Patriots sign the mummified remains of Vinny Testaverde?

Because Tom Brady is physically hurting. Oh, I suppose there's some truth to the theory that Testaverde, who broke into the league when Brady was 10, will act as a sounding board and another set of eyes. After all, Brady, whose chief confidants are a 30-year-old offensive coordinator and backup who was a backup in college, probably relies on his own knowledge more than any QB in the league. But I'm convinced - and I know I'll take some crap for this - that Brady is playing through an injury, one that just might be affecting his play. C'mon, it's okay to admit it: With the exception of the first Buffalo game and the Minnesota victory, he hasn't been himself all season, particularly in terms of his accuracy. He's been . . . decent. Nothing more, and certainly not the steady stalwart we've come to expect. There's something going on here . . . and remember, Brady had hernia surgery shortly after last season ended, so it's not like playing through an undisclosed injury is unprecedented. I think Belichick is concerned about his condition, watched him take that violent beating against the Jets, and realized it was foolish to proceed with just one backup to his aching and possibly ailing franchise quarterback. So the bat signal went out for ol' reliable Vinny. You bet I hope I'm wrong about this, and Brady drops 400 yards and four TDs on the Lambeau loyalists this Sunday. But I've seen enough this season to know better than to expect it.

4. Why are the Sox willing to pay Julio Lugo $8 million per season?

Because they didn't learn a goddamn thing from the Edgar Renteria disaster - namely, that if you have a perfectly capable, defensively stellar shortstop, there's no need to replace him with someone more expensive who might be marginally better. Cripes, I wish they'd just kept Orlando Cabrera and saved us from this annual charade.

5. Will Manny Ramirez be batting cleanup for the Sox come Opening Day?

God, I hope so. Hell, you guys know how I feel about Manny by now. I consider myself fortunate to be able to watch one of the greatest righthanded hitters of all-time swing the bat for the Sox, and while I felt increasing frustration with his barely excused absence down the stretch last season, I still find the brunt of his quirks more charming than maddening. I love watching the guy play, and at this point in his historically consistent career, the two years and 30-something million dollars remaining on his contract are nothing less than a bargain, particularly in a market where a severely flawed fantasy league hero like Alfonso Soriano is going to get $120 million. Further, I can't imagine they'd get equal value in a trade; if Theo Epstein ended up accepting the likes of slopballer Aaron Heilman and the vastly overrated Lastings Milledge for him, as Olney suggests, the next time you'll hear from me is when the SWAT team has me surrounded somewhere in the vicinity of Fenway.

6. Which big-ticket free-agent will be the biggest bust?

I hate to say this because I enjoy watching him pitch . . . but someone is going to have serious buyer's remorse a year or two after giving Barry Zito a nine-figure deal. Think about it: He walks a ton of batters, his K-rate is shriveling, he's spent his whole career in a pitcher's park, he struggles against Boston and New York, his velocity has decreased to the mid-80s . . . at this point, he's a No. 2 starter at best, and simply no longer resembles the Cy Young Award winner of four seasons ago. I think he'd make a fine Met. (And if you think I'm being harsh, check out Keith Law's top 40 free agents on ESPN.com. He has him rated behind Ted Lilly and Gil Meche.)

7. What's one warped stat you can come up with regarding the Patriots' receivers?

How about this: Reche Caldwell had more catches Sunday (9) than David Givens had during his entire aborted first season in Tennessee (8). It goes without saying that I'd trade Paper Reche for a one-legged Givens right now.

8. Why don't the Patriots give Laurence Maroney more carries and responsibility?

Josh McDaniels, the floor is yours. Honestly, I have no idea why the Patriots have been so reluctant to put the ball in Maroney's hands more often. I still haven't heard an adequate explanation for why he had just four touches in the second half against the Colts, and he was again woefully underutilized against the Jets' porous run defense Sunday. And if there's anything we learned from the Cincinnati victory - other than that the Bengals are a fraud - it's that Maroney, with his violent, relentless running style, is more effective as the game goes on. And yet in the fourth quarter lately he's been a decoy, an observer, and too often, a role player jogging off the field after ceding his position to the untrustworthy Kevin Faulk. It makes zero sense. Maroney is a weapon, as talented a running back as I've ever seen in a Patriots uniform, and why they hesitate to use him to their full advantage is befuddling. You have to wonder if maybe they don't know how.

9. Why does Bill Belichick hold such a grudge against Eric Mangini?

He caught him trying to pilfer his favorite hoodie? Seriously, I don't know, but Belichick seems hell-bent on continuing this whole You're-Dead-To-Me routine, so it must have been something egregious. One theory: Mangini was trying to lure Patriots staffers to join him with the Jets while he was still on the New England payroll - and while Belichick was still under the impression that he was remaining with the Patriots. I guess that makes as much sense as anything I've heard, but this much we do know: That old Border War? It's back on, baby.

10. Why did the Patriots wait until midseason to install FieldTurf?

Because it took Belichick's kid this long to smoke all the real grass.

11. Is there one image that sums up the way Mangini and the Jets treated Belichick and the Patriots last Sunday?

Yup:



That's right, Leon. You're No. 1. Stay classy.

12. Thoughts on the Celtics?

Doc Rivers is such an inept coach is so many different ways, I'd get carpal tunnel if I tried to elaborate in detail . . . I'd say fire him, but if he can mismanage his way into getting Greg Oden to Boston, well, keep up the good work, M.L. . . . er, Doc . . . Rajon Rondo must get Bassy's minutes, pronto . . . I know he can't guard his scrawny shadow, but Gerald Green needs to play. He could score 10 a night on athleticism alone . . . Wally Szczerbiak is nothing but a one-legged jump shooter at this point. Quick, trade him to a contender before he needs surgery. (Sure was fun watching him light up a defenseless Adam Morrison, though.) . . . The Celtics will never fully commit to the running game as long as Paul Pierce is around. He's too set in his ways, which usually includes grabbing a rebound and immediately putting it on the floor rather than getting it to the point guard . . . For all of the ugliness of this early season, I still think Green, Rondo, Al Jefferson, and Kendrick Perkins are a fine young core who deserve a chance to grow together, and the Celtics are better off now than they were the day Danny Ainge took over. Small consolation, right?

13. We know they'll gag in the playoffs, but is anyone going to beat the Colts during the regular season?

If T.O. can hold onto two-thirds of the passes that hit his hands, I like Dallas's chances Sunday. And count me as a Tony Romo believer - his arm is strong enough, he's poised, and brings an unmistakable jolt of energy to an offense that was lacking in urgency during the Bledsoe era. Where have we heard that before? (By the way, we don't condone clicking this link. But it's pretty funny if you imagine Drew's monotone voice while reading it.)

14. What is the most annoying commercial on television at the moment, Non-John Cougar Mellancamp Sellout Division?

Three words: ALARM CLOCK CATASTROPHE!!! Seriously, whoever came up with this ad campaign, which features people you want to slap singing non-sensical, catchy-to-the-point-you-want-to-poke-your-eardrums-out jingles, should be subjected to listen to their own horrific aural creations on repeat from now until their last tortured days. Come to think of it, it might have been those commercials that subconsciously convinced me to stop giving Dunkin' Transfats my daily allowance.)

15. Thoughts on "The Office" merger?

I'd say it was good but not great, which more or less sums up my take on this entire uneven season. The "Lazy Scranton" bit was inspired, at least to the 12 people who are still watching SNL and got the reference. Michael and Dwight forcing the David Wells-sized guy to climb up on the table was over the top and awkward even for them, and really not all that funny. The Staples product placement was ridiculously blatant to the point of annoyance - do we really need commercials in the midst of a show that seems too short as it is? And I imagine I'm in the minority in believing Dwight is better in small doses. And . . . hmm, feel like I'm forgetting something . . . let's see, what was it . . . key plot point . . . a Phyllis nude scene? . . . nope . . . oh, right . . . the long-awaited Jim and Pam reunion. What can I say? It was both sweet and agonizing, still the most realistic and best-written unrequited relationship since the early flirtations of Sam and Diane, and it's clear Fancy New Beesley is going to have to put her heart out there just as Jim did last season. Their relationship remains the best part of the show, and the more Pam and Jim (and Karen, it seems) are involved, the more likely the end of this season will approach the heartbreaking brilliance of last year's finale.

16. I hope this isn't a violation of your restraining order, but has Jenna Fischer, per chance, ever appeared on the Tony Danza Show?

Why, yes. Yes, she has. And you'd better believe the only time I'd watch that Yankee-fan, meatpuppet Danza's blockheadathon of a show is when the Official Muse of TATB is a guest. (And if you're a straight American male - not so fast, Doogie - and don't think she looks off-the-charts hot in that clip, I'm guessing you took Bob Barker's advice and got yourself both spayed and neutered. Yeah, I'm still fighting this battle, punks.)

17. Of all of Derek Jeter's undeserved trophies, what one is the most galling? The Hank Aaron Award? The first Gold Glove? Gonzo's Gold Glove?

Easy. Jessica Biel. And all of a sudden, I'm thinking the "Jeter Drinks Wine Coolers" t-shirt I'm wearing at the moment probably isn't that effective.

18. As for today's Completely Random Football Card? (Yes, Alex, it's in the form of a question.)



Three things you may or may not have known about Joe Namath: 1) He completed just 50 percent of his passes in his career, and threw more interceptions (220) than TD (173) passes. 2. He didn't throw a touchdown pass in Super Bowl III but was named the game's MVP. 3. He wantsth to kissth you. YAHHHH!