Friday, January 25, 2008

Sunday mornin' comin' down

Disorganized thoughts while waiting for the game to hurry up and get here . . .


One of the mini-perks of this bloggin' gig is the occasional advertising-generated gift certificates from Amazon that show up in my inbox. They've never for much money, $13.14 here, $8.92 there, but I always feel like I'm getting free books when I cash them in, one of the little rewards that make this all the more worthwhile. Lately, I've been using them to fill in the gaps in my collection of old Bill James books. I added all three editions (1990-'92) of the addictive, sprawling "The Baseball Book" for about 10 bucks total, and the UPS truck yesterday delivered James's 1995 Player Ratings Guide, the final year it was issued. You might recall that I used player capsules from his two previous Player Ratings Guides as sort of a quirky quiz in my Fox column last summer, and while the column will likely return in some form in a couple of months, I'll probably discontinue that feature. But for your viewing pleasure - or because you're a certified James dork too - I figured I'd share five of the more notable caps here from the '95 book. All you need to know is that these players are currently active and remain relatively prominent. As always, clicking the link within the clue will reveal the player's identity. I'm betting you go at least three for five:


"I wonder how many pitchers in baseball history have gone 48-16 over three seasons? [He] is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but his years of effectiveness are probably limited. He's 26, but pitches more like he's 33. He'll run out gas within four years, when guys like Cone and Randy Johnson, who are older than him, are still going strong."


"History shows us that there is at least one and normally are two rookies in every crop who will wind up in Cooperstown, My best from the 1994 rookies: [This player] and Ryan Klesko. [This player] had a terrible slump last May, hitting .132, but hit .300 or better in every other month, hit .361 against lefthanders, and played surprisingly well in right field."


"There is every reason to believe that [he] will be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the next few years. His future is unlimited. Many of you will note that when his brother was the same age, we would have said the same thing about him, but that didn't happen, in part, because [his manager] pushed him too hard when he was young."


"Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and [this hitter] . . . maybe the three best hitters God ever made. Gets on base half the time, has tremendous power, hits .350 . . . what more could you want? He works hard, stays healthy, never slumps. Only weaknesses are his glove and speed. When [he was picked] seventh overall in the the 1989 draft, [his team was] widely ridiculed by the scouting community."


Lastly, this was filed under the back page category of "Long Shots":

Back in the minors, getting his knuckles beat in.


So . . . know them? C'mon, I know you do.

* * *

Six other slightly more timely thoughts:

1. Nice to see Gerald Green is still the same clueless waste of physical talent that he was in Boston. A Friend of TATB who was around the team on a regular basis the past few seasons says he has the maturity and attention span of a 9-year-old, which is why he was talking trash to the Celtics bench after hitting a couple of shots tonight, as if somehow he was avenging some wrong done to him by Doc Rivers. It's also why he'll be fading into obscurity with the likes of Butte Daredevils when the T-Wolves dump him after the season. The kid just doesn't get it, and though he's still young (21), he probably never will.

2. Put it this way: If Tom Brady's ankle injury was at all serious, would Bill Belichick be taking such a light (for him) tone with the media the past few days?

3. I'm officially concerned about Ray Allen. It's gotten to the point that when he squared up for a shot, I'm expecting his to miss, and I never, ever thought that would be the case when he came here. It's probably just a slump, but if he's hurt more than we know, Doc Rivers needs to get him out of there and give him the proper rest, immediately.

4. I like the idea of Klesko as the lefthanded stick off the Sox bench, though I think Brad Wilkerson would be my first choice. As for Trot Nixon? No thanks, Nick.

5. File it under "Blind Squirrel, Nut" if you must, and definitely don't tell Peter King, but I absolutely nailed Brett Favre's postseason gack-job, just as I pegged Roidin' Roger's pathetic postseason farewell. Don't say I can't spot a phony.

6. Finally, we give you the early frontrunner for sports quote of the year, this comes from a former associated of Jose Canseco's, via Jon Heyman's column on the former slugger/man of letters:

"[Jose] is a moron of the highest order. If he could have majored in moronics, he would have gone to college."


Moronics. Hmmm, I'm pretty sure I got a C+ in that at UMaine back in the day.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Football Card:


Not the rapper. Just the inspiration for the name.

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Friday, July 27, 2007

Do not bat this man second


First, the praise: I admired Jerry Remy as a kid, and still do. He was the speedy second baseman on those late-'70s Sox teams that hooked me for life, the Fall Rivah kid living the dream. And for all of his huckster tendencies as a broadcaster, he's a superior analyst to every last one of the national nitwits, and he gets bonus points for bringing out the personality in Don Orsillo, who we still suspect is really a vinyl-covered automaton programmed to repeat old Sean McDonough soundbites at the appropriate times.

So, yeah, I'm staunchly pro-RemDawg. It's just . . . well, I recently discovered that he was a really bad offensive player. I mean, really bad. How really bad? Let's put it this way: Remy's career OPS of .655 is exactly .004 points lower than Alex Cora's. I think I understand Remy's verbal fawning over Cora now. Remy might be built more like Dustin Pedroia, but he knows Pedroia has more pure hitting ability than he ever did. He sees his reflection as a player in Cora.

Now about those stats - they're about as attractive as Tawny Kitaen's mugshot. (Click at your retinas' risk, Coverdale.) I first became aware of them a week or so ago when the Hollywood Sports Guy made a crack about Remy's career OPS, and I checked them out further while doing some research for this week's Fox column on the feeble '75 Angels, who hit 55 (yes, 55) home runs as a team. You probably knew that Remy hit just 7 career homers in his 10 seasons, since he jokes about it often with the OrsilloBot. But did you know that he had a career OPS+ of 82? That he was in the top 10 in caught stealing four times, including 21 times against 34 successes with the '75 Angels? That he was in the top 10 in outs four times? That his on-base percentage was .327? That his slugging percentage was .328? Not only was he unproductive, but he was remarkably inefficient.

Don Zimmer did a lot of indefensible things in '78 (running off the Buffalo Heads, playing a woozy Dewey Evans, starting Bleepin' Icewater Bobby Sprowl, sticking with injured, scatterarmed Butch Hobson . . . ah, hell, you get the point), but batting Remy and his .321 on-base percentage in the No. 2 spot in front of Rice, Lynn, and Fisk might have been the dumbest. It's like Zimmer had a metal plate in his head or something. It's a wonder his egregious lineup construction didn't lead to him getting taken hostage by a 10-year-old Rob Neyer.

I realize it was a different game then. The ballparks were bigger, the ballplayers were smaller, and second base, save for the great Joe Morgan, the criminally underrated Bobby Grich, and a couple of others, wasn't regarded as an offensive position. Second base was for the gritty, gutty gamers, the runts and the bunters, the pre-Ecksteins, if you will.

Which explains, I suppose, why Remy, despite his puny numbers, accomplished enough in his career to be rated the 100th-best second baseman of all-time in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. (Hey, to be ranked in the top 100 ever at anything is a compliment, even if Remy comes in 21 spots below Yankee punchline Horace Clarke). Wrote James:

When Remy was playing for El Paso in 1974, he wondered aloud if he would ever make it to the major leagues. His manager, Dave Garcia, overheard him and said, "Listen, do you know who is playing second base for the Angels?"

"Denny Doyle," said Remy

"Who runs better, you or Denny?" asked Garcia

"I do," said Remy.

"Who throws better?"

"I do."

"Who hits better?"

"I do," said Remy.

"Well then," said Garcia, "you're going to the major leagues."


Remy took Doyle's job with the Angels in '75 . . . then replaced him in Boston after coming over in a deal in the winter of '77. So it's all relative, right? There are a lot of second baseman who were worse than the 100th best. Doyle's on that list, somewhere.

* * *

Other notes scribbled in the margins:

• Considering he's the NFL's fourth all-time leading rusher, you'd think Curtis Martin's retirement this week would have merited more attention. I guess there's no time to appropriately salute one of the classiest and accomplished players in recent league history when a certain network's NFL airtime is alloted entirely to a flashy but second-rate quarterback's cruel way with animals. Fortunately, Newsday's Bob Glauber hit the mark with this tribute; Martin's quiet grace, on the field and off, was overshadowed in this day and age in which police lights and the spotlight are often indistinguishable. Even if his football legacy is mostly with the Jets, I'll always remember him as one of my favorites for his three terrific seasons with the Patriots. It's funny to recall now that early in his rookie season, after he scored the winning touchdown against the Browns, Bill Parcells warded off the media hype by saying, "Don't put the kid in Canton quite yet, fellas." Who would have thought then that the Hall of Fame eventually would beckon?

• I might as well say it, because it's become the truth: When Papi comes to the plate with the game hanging in the balance in the late innings, I'm no longer confident, let alone certain, that he's going to come through. And that makes me sad, in a melancholic sort of way. I'm not ready for that era to be over yet.

• Who's NOW? I mean, you're kidding me, right? Bob Ley must weep for what ESPN has become.

• Nice of Wily Mo Pena to tantalize us with his breathtaking, maddening talent once more before he departs. Or did last night's performance and Nick Cafardo's nice piece Thursday about how hard he works and how much his teammates believe in him give you pause about giving up on him now?

• Well, it sure looks like the wheels are coming off my Mark Teixeira-for-Jon Lester bandwagon. The offer Atlanta supposedly made to Texas for the 27-year-old slugger includes catching phenom Jarrod Saltalamacchia (another player the Sox should covet), and I doubt Theo Epstein could trump that offer without including Clay Buchholz, who should not and will not be going anywhere. Teixeira is exactly what the Sox need (check out Mike Lowell's career first- and second-half splits and try not to cringe), but at the moment, the price seems much too high to make it happen.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



"Man, that job-stealing Remy punk is really starting to *&%^ me off."

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Saturday, April 07, 2007

The James gang


Since we got an email box full of feedback regarding our recent look at the Bill James Handbook's projections for the 2007 Red Sox, I figured we should revisit the the numbers James and the Baseball Info Solutions wizards projected for last year's Sox, and find out just how accurate they ultimately were.

One more thing: If you liked our take on this year's Handbook, check out my pal Dave D'Onofrio's James/Sox breakdown in the Concord Monitor. He did it first, starting the tradition before the 2006 season, and he does it better.

Okay, let's break it down . . .

HITTERS
Jason Varitek

Projected: .266 average, 20 homers, 75 RBIs in 492 at-bats.
Actual: .238-12-55 in 355 at-bats.
Comment: Injuries played a part, but they always do in the inevitable and rapid decline of a 30-something catcher.

Kevin Youkilis
Projected: .278-14-68 in 500 at-bats.
Actual: .279-13-72 in 569 at-bats.
Comment: Bingo.

Julio Lugo
Projected: .286-9-61, 28 steals in 597 at-bats.
Actual: .278-12-37 in 435 at-bats.
Comment: How did he drive in just 37 runs? That's an Enzo Hernandez-like ratio.

Mike Lowell
Projected: .269-16-72 in 465 at-bats.
Actual: .284-20-80 in 573 at-bats.
Comment: And I think we'd all be thrilled - and maybe a little surprised - if Lowell matches his '06 comeback numbers.

Manny Ramirez
Projected: .305-45-141 in 587 at-bats.
Actual: .321-35-102 in 449 at-bats.
Comment: It appears the sabermetric dudes are yet to come up with a variable that accounts for a hitter's unexpected late-summer vacation.

Coco Crisp
Projected: .296-13-64 in 557 at-bats.
Actual: .264-8-36 in 413 at-bats.
Comment: His inaugural Boston season was sidetracked by a broken finger, and we're still yet to see the player who was so dynamic in '04-'05 for Cleveland.

J.D. Drew
Projected: .295-25-70 in 444 at-bats.
Actual: .283-20-100 in 494 at-bats.
Comment: I'm curious why James projected 25 homers but just 70 RBIs.

David Ortiz
Projected: .289-40-132 in 589 at-bats.
Actual: .287-54-139 in 558 at-bats.
Comment: The lesson, as always: Underestimate Big Papi's power at your own risk.

Wily Mo Pena
Projected: .259-21-57 in 340 at-bats.
Actual: .301-11-42 in 276 at-bats.
Comment: The ultimate baseball tease: If he can hit .301 while whiffing in one-third of his at-bats, what might he do if he ever learns to make consistent contact?

Doug Mirabelli
Projected: .244-6-20 in 135 at-bats.
Actual: .193-6-25 in 161 at-bats.
Comment: Projections were based on him playing for the Padres. How I wish they still were.

PITCHERS
Curt Schilling
Projected: 14 wins, 7 losses, 3.31 ERA, 193 strikeouts in 190 innings.
Actual: 15-7, 3.97, 183 Ks in 204 innings.
Comment: All in all, a fairly accurate prediction of his comeback season.

Josh Beckett
Projected: 14-8, 3.42, 192 Ks in 194 innings, 17 homers allowed.
Actual: 16-11, 5.01, 158 Ks in 204 innings, 36 homers allowed.
Comment: Who would have predicted he'd allow more home runs than Manny would hit?

Julian Tavarez
Projected: 4.18 ERA in 61 innings.
Actual: 4.47 ERA in 98.6 innings.
Comment: His stats would have been worse, but he pitched well in September garbage time.

Tim Wakefield
Projected: 14-13, 4.11, 241 innings, 173 Ks.
Actual: 7-11, 4.63, 140 innings, 90 Ks.
Comment: Oddly, the projections anticipated career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts for the then-39 year old.

Jonathan Papelbon
No projection, because, dude, you just can't foresee sheer awesomeness!

Brendan Donnelly
Projected: 3.14 ERA in 62 innings.
Actual: 3.94 ERA in 64 innings.
Comment: And he'd have met his projections, darn it, had those meddling kids not caught him scuffing the ball the year before.

Mike Timlin
Projected: 3.63 ERA in 74 innings.
Actual: 4.36 ERA in 64 innings.
Comment: The former Mr. Reliable was never right in season's second half.

J.C. Romero
Projected: 4.25 ERA in 54 innings.
Actual: 6.70 ERA in 48.3 innings.
Comment: The 28/31 BB/K ratio was nearly as ghastly as the ERA.

Kyle Snyder
Projected: 4.87 ERA in 39 innings.
Actual: 6.02 ERA in 58.3 innings.
Comment: Am I wrong to think he wasn't nearly as ineffective as the numbers suggest?

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Saturday, March 10, 2007

Analyzing Bill James's Red Sox projections, Part 1

Last season, Bill James projected that Kevin Youkilis would bat .278 with 14 homers and 68 RBIs in 149 games in his first full season as a big leaguer.

James, being a calculator-toting nerdling who obviously wouldn't know a baseball if one beaned him in his headgear, was, of course, wrong. Youkilis batted .279 with 13 homers and 72 RBIs in 147 games. The Mind of Bill James, my $#@.

All right, so you've got us: we were just trying to sound like your standard bitter, closed-minded, old-school, stat-mocking, Goodwill-wardrobed baseball writer there. (Our model was Murray Chass, if you must know.) As you probably realize if you've visited this space previously, we unabashadly admire James not only for the pioneering ways he has enhanced baseball analysis, but because he is one hell of a fun writer to read. There aren't too many people who can mesh words and numbers into a compelling package. He can, and you bet I'm glad he's a Red Sox employee.

Of course, that doesn't mean we always agree with his conclusions. For instance, I'm not sure how he can project Trot Nixon to hit 223 career homers, when the calcifying 33-year-old outfielder has just 133 right now and has totaled just 27 over the past three seasons. By my calculations, it would take Trot 10 years to hit the 90 he needs to fulfill James's projection. At the rate he's going, I'm not sure Trot will have all of his limbs a decade from now.

Nevertheless, it all makes for fun debate. And with that in mind, we here at TATB cracked open the 2007 Bill James Handbook that always seems to be within an arm's length, and took a look at James's 2007 stat projections for each relevant member of the Red Sox. Check out the numbers he came up with (and our take on said numbers), and let us know how accurate you think he'll be:

THE LINEUP
Julio Lugo
James's projection: .277-11-55 in 564 at-bats; 25 steals
TATB's take: Alex Gonzalez hit .255 with 9 homers and 50 RBIs in nearly 200 fewer at-bats lats season, and the 2006 season highlight reel is proof that he is just about peerless defensively. In other words, Lugo is going to have to surpass James's projections and play better D than he is known for if Sox fans are going to stop reminding him about his predecessor.

Kevin Youkilis
.283-14-77 in 584 at-bats; 101 runs; .395 OBP
These numbers seem about right for Youkilis, although you'd hope he could avoid another late-season fade and perhaps increase his power in his second season as a regular. Is 20 homers too much to ask?

Papi
.285-47-138 in 601 at-bats
I'm somewhat surprised that he forecasts a 7-homer dropoff given that Papi has increased his home run total each season since 2000 (10-18-20-31-41-47-54). Then again, how much better can the big guy possibly get? Do I hear 60 taters?

Manny
.305-37-118 in 512 at-bats; 1.004 OPS
For all of the kvetching about his quirks, there is no more reliable player in baseball in terms of offensive production. So it is that James predicts another typical Manny season, one that would leave him with 507 homers. I don't know about you, but I'm planning on being in Cooperstown for his Hall of Fame speech a dozen years or so from now. It's worth noting that James pegs Manny to play 140 games, which means 22 days' worth of mind-numbing programming for the Big Show is already preset.

J.D. Drew
.283-24-82 in 499 at-bats
A lot of the stat gurus think Drew will be hindered by Fenway power-wise and is more likely to finish in the high teens in home runs. I'm fine with swapping a few homers for a few doubles. All that really matters is that Drew stays healthy and on the field, because he will produce if he plays.

Mike Lowell
.273-18-77 in 502 at-bats
Given that his bat was as slow as Heather Mills's 40-yard-dash time in the second half last season, I'd take these numbers without a moment's hesitation. At least we know his defense will be stellar.

Jason Varitek
.259-17-69 in 468 at-bats
Ditto what I said for Lowell. I don't doubt that Varitek has the will to bounce back. It's just that 35-year-old catchers coming off knee surgery rarely do.

Coco Crisp
.284-11-54 in 511 at-bats; 23 steals
With good health, ol' Covelli Loyce eclipses these numbers with ease and duplicates the .300-16-69 line he put up in his last season with the Tribe. Let's just hope that finger is finally healed, because at 27, there's still time for him to become a dynamic offensive player.

Dustin Pedroia
.284-10-72 in 619 at-bats; 47 doubles
And with these numbers comes a dilemma: Finding a place for an AL Rookie of the Year Trophy that's bigger than he is.

(Pitchers and other suspects coming up in tomorrow's post.)

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Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Our new favorite player

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free mysterious gyroballs for you . . .


1. I've been reading Gammons since I was eight years old, and this little anecdote from a recent ESPN.com column might be my favorite line he's ever written. It's from an item on Atlanta's Jeff Francoeur and how the lifelong Sox fan is looking forward to playing in Boston this season:

Talk about a perfect personality for Fenway Park . . . Team USA players like to tell the story of Francoeur confronting Alex Rodriguez during the WBC for trashing a clubhouse kid who brought him the wrong sandwich.


Seriously, how funny is that? You can practically visualize A-Rod lambasting the kid: "Dammit, kid, if I told you once . . . MR. A-ROD DOES NOT EAT TUNA FISH! NOW GO GET MR. A-ROD SOME *%&$*#*#*#&$&& HUMMUS ON FOCACCIA! NOW, SON!"

2. I'm sure Tom Brady finds the thought as intriguing as we do, but I have to believe there's a better chance of Donald Hayes being hired as the offensive coordinator than there is of Randy Moss playing for the Patriots next season. Not only did he set a league record for dogging it last season, but more than a few scouts think his once-supreme talent is in rapid decline due to neglect.

3. Old friend Antoine Walker is shooting a sizzling 39 percent from the free throw line this season for the Heat. Might be time to ask Shaq for some pointers.

4. After 10 spins on ESPN.com's very cool NBA lottery generator, I had the Celtics ending up with Greg Oden twice, Kevin Durant twice . . . and Joakim Freakin' Noah six times. I've said this before, and I'll say it again. If the Celtics end up with bust-to-be Noah, there's a good chance the next time you see me I'll be dangling from the Garden rafters with a noose fashioned out of one of the retired numbers. (Probably LOSCY).

5. So I guess Peter King's assertion that Belichick's role in the sad Ted Johnson saga would prevent veteran players from coming to the Patriots was just one more of his weekly Dumbass Things I Think I Think, right? Adalius Thomas certainly seems to have no qualms about his new coach's personality.

6. Hmmm, I wonder who Peyton is taking to the prom. (Oh, of course: Chesney).

7. I feel really good about this Sox team - like, say, 98+ wins and a memorable playoff run good. But if I had to rank my list of concerns, it would looks something like this: 1) Closer, obviously. Joel Pineiro seems set to play the role of Chad Fox. 2) Mike Lowell's bat. He was fortunate in the first half and feeble in the second. 3) Jason Varitek's health/durability. Because the less Mirabelli, the better. 4) Julio Lugo's glove. Yeah, it's early, but from what I've seen so far, he's going to be a lot closer to Edgar Renteria than Alex Gonzalez defensively.

8. There are no new "The Office" episodes for another month or so, meaning we'll have to get our pathetic fanboy Beesley fix from insightful articles like this one. Rumor has it that a couple TATB readers were in attendance at this thing, though I'm still waiting for them to report back. You don't think they were charged in violation of my restraining order, do you?

9. In his 2007 Handbook, Bill James projects Manny Ramirez to finish his career with 691 home runs. That's 221 more than he has right now, at age 34. Seems a little iffy to me that Manny will average over 30 homers per season from now into his 40s, but I wonder if this means James is pushing the Sox to pick up his option years.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Say it ain't so, Craig Hansen. Give us a reason to believe you're not the second coming of Wes Gardner.

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Monday, August 28, 2006

Nine innings: 08.28.06

Playing nine innings while wondering how close the Sox would be to the Yankees if Mike Timlin were still alive . . .



1. After the Yankees debacle, I was reluctant to write the Sox off, in part because of the hangover New York carried to the West Coast, and in part because I felt like a damn fool for believing in this team's legitimacy as a contender through the summer. I talked myself into believing that maybe the Yankees would lose a couple in a row . . . and maybe the Sox would win a couple in a row . . . and the momentum would shift once more . . . and wouldn't you know it, that late September four-game set would carry all the implications and feature all the drama that an autumn Sox-Yanks series should. Well, turns out the stay of execution was brief, and after watching them sleepwalk through Seattle this weekend, I'm ready to concede truth. For the first time in four years, the Sox will not play in the postseason. They're cooked, done, finished . . . dead-men walking, or more appropriately, swinging and missing. We'll save the autopsy for another day, not that the causes of their demise aren't readily apparent. The kids were too young, some of the veterans were too old, the most prominent newcomers didn't live up their advance billing, and the bench and bullpen were fatally flawed. And beyond the historic slugging feats of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, there wasn't a hitter in the lineup that would strike fear in a Portsmouth Little Leaguer. Injuries ravaged the roster, particularly the late-August losses of catcher Jason Varitek and pitcher Tim Wakefield, perhaps the two steadiest rocks in the clubhouse; I will never underestimate their particular contributions again. The team - and the season - was lost without them. You might have noticed that I do love baseball, and no matter how disappointing a season may be, I always lament its conclusion. So I'll watch the rest of the way, of course, to see Papi chase Jimmy Foxx, to see if Dustin Pedroia is more than an Eckstein-in-waiting, to gauge the usefulness of Eric Hinske and Kyle Snyder and other fringe candidates for next year's roster, to deny summer's conclusion for one more day. And I'll remind myself that this is what Theo Epstein desired during his power struggle with his mentor - a chance to take a step back and build the ballclub's foundation, rather than sacrifice the future for a risky win-at-all-costs present.

2. In Theo we trust? Er, not so much at the moment, as you probably gathered. While I remain grateful that he is the Red Sox GM and confident that he will build this franchise into the "player development machine" he so desires, there is no denying that he really hasn't done much right in terms of player procurement since 2004. (I'm likely going to get into that in my next post, hopefully Monday night, so I'll spare you the Edgar Renteria Sucked rehash here.) He must be held accountable for this top-heavy team, and after showing such a deft touch in his first seasons on the job - for a time, I was convinced that on his watch, the Sox would have the financial savvy of the A's, player development touch of the Twins, and the resources to acquire the superstars they desired - I catch myself wondering if something has changed that has led him to making such rock-brained evaluations as A Rudy Seanez sequel is just what we need! or Forget what the Indians say, Coco Crisp will be a marvelous center fielder! It's funny, what I admired most about Theo is that he seemed open-minded to the various different ways of evaluating players. I imagined that in one ear, he had Bill James giving him a player's statistical projections, and in the other, Bill Lajoie would offer a shrewd veteran's scout's take, and then Josh Byrnes and the other trusted lieutenants would weigh in, and then Theo would consider all the information and make his best judgment on the merits of a certain player. I'm not quite sure that's how the front office worked, but it's how I perceived it to work, and it seemed like a clear-headed and wise approach. So I wonder, with Byrnes, Lajoie and Peter Woodfork having departed during and immediately after the offseason tumult, if Theo is getting the feedback and discussion that he needs, or if he is surrounded by enough advisers who aren't afraid to tell the boss that they think something is a bleepin' stupid idea.

3. In a strange sort of way, the collapse justifies Theo's decision not to swap the Lester/Hansen/Delcarmen trio in a major move at the deadline. As the Yankees (and the Mariners . . . and the Royals . . . and the Devil Rays . . . ) have revealed, there simply are too many holes on this club for all of them to be repaired in one fell swoop. Sure, maybe, say, Roy Oswalt might have helped to the point that the recent freefall would be 9 losses in 14 games rather than 11 in 14. . . but still, by my accounting, they'd still need a No. 5 hitter, a decent fielding center fielder (enjoy your new home next year, Coco), a lefthanded reliever, at least two reliable righthanded relievers, a capable defensive catcher, and a fifth starter. Let's be blunt (and hyperbolic): John Henry could have annexed the Marlins at the trade deadline and the Sox still would barely have enough talent to match up with their superiors in the American League. They just aren't good enough right now.

4. What's up with Manny? Should he be playing? Is he healthy enough to play? Is he aware of the perception and the bleep-storm he is causing? Damned if I know. I'm as vexed as anyone else about all of this; while I'm an unabashed Manny fan, I admit I'm frustrated and skeptical regarding this knee injury. On one hand, his track record of needing an occasional three-day weekend each summer suggests that maybe he decided this was a nice time for a rest, pennant race be damned, and there is a vocal percentage of the media that insists he is taking a selfish respite at the worst possible time. Considering that he has cried wolf before, it's a logical perspective, though it strikes me as all too personal at times. But on the other hand, he was diagnosed with patellar tendinitis, an affliction considerably more serious than a sore hamstring or a dislocated eyelash or whatever. This is not something to be messed with. As Gordon Edes (who, as usual, is the voice of reason in all of this) pointed out the other day, that's the same injury that led to the rapid decline of Mark McGwire, and former Sox John Valentin was plagued with tendinitis not long before blowing out his patellar tendon. If the injury is legitimate - and the only the most cynical conspiracy theorists will suggest it is not, that the Sox are covering for him - then I can deal with him missing a few days. It'll never happen, but if only he would just come out and say, "Listen, the goddamn knee has been killing me all season, I've played through it, I want to be out there but it keeps getting worse, so get the hell off my back," I'd feel a whole lot better about defending him. Instead, the storyline lingers.

5. All right, I admit it. I've got the Emmys on in the background as I peck away at this. (Go ahead . . . insult my manhood, I can take it. As long as I've got my cat and a fresh batch of berry-berry daiquiris, you and this cruel, judgmental world can BITE ME!) Um . . . anyway, just wanted to note the three original Charlie's Angels just popped up on stage during an Aaron Spelling tribute, looking all Botoxed to hell and, in Farrah's case, slightly deranged. Not that their facial muscles are moving or anything, but it sure looks to me like they hate each other. I imagine this is what a Jeter/A-Rod reunion will be like 25 years from now, only cattier and with cheaper perfume. (And for the record, Cheryl Ladd was hotter than the three original cast members combined. Right, kitty?)

6. As if there wasn't enough fallout from the whuppin' the Yankees put on the Sox, now we have to deal with this: Yankees fans, silent since October, 2004, are back to being their old obnoxious selves; yup, they've got their self-satisfied swagger back. I can't tell you how many Yankees hats I saw here in the tourist stop known as Wells, Me., in the days after the beat-down, but I can guarantee you it's more than I've seen all summer previously; it took all my willpower not to turn a couple of the Buttafuocos into hood ornaments. And I won't even get into talking about my frontrunning neighbor, who is quick to take down the Yankee flag above her doorstop when things aren't going well for the Bronx Billionaires, yet always seems to have the thing waving proudly milliseconds after a victory over the Sox. One of these nights, I'm going to swipe the flag and replace it with . . . well, I don't know, something tasteless. I'm open to ideas. [Note: I like the pirate flag suggestion. Just bizarre enough to work.] Sports Guy likened this smug-Yankee-fan phenomenon to mosquitoes returning to ruin a pleasant summer. It's a fair analogy, but then again, I've never encountered a single mosquito who has a spotty mustache, accessorizes a knock-off Jeter jersey with knock-off gold chains, and smells like a combination of stale Driven and James Gandolfini's undershirt. But I'm sure they have 'em in droves in Jersey.

7. He is by all accounts a sincere, swell guy and a respected teammate, and as One Of The 25 his name will be fondly recalled here long after his playing days have ended. But it's become painfully clear these past few weeks that Gabe Kapler no longer is worthy of a roster spot on a team with even marginal postseason aspirations. His ax-chop of a swing has always been homely - how did he manage a 28-game hitting streak in '00? - but now it is more ineffective than ever, and his Achilles' injury clearly has robbed him of much of his agility on the bases and in the outfield. I'll remember him well, but the Sox need to do better than this fading sentimental favorite next year.

8. This Week's Reason Jerry Trupiano Should Be Stricken Mute: Yeah, as if there's just one reason. To list all of this dope's transgressions during this frustrating week might just test the bandwidth limits of the internet, so we'll narrow it down to this Troop Gem from today: While trying, in his subtle-as-a-sledgehammer way to insinuate that Manny's injury isn't severe enough to keep him out of the lineup, he cited Cal Ripken as a dependable player who was there for his team every day. Fair enough, if a tad obvious. But then he felt the need to add a second example. Who'd he come up with, you ask? David Ortiz, perhaps? Derek Jeter? Miguel Tejada? Good guesses all, but nope, nope, and nope. Give up? Here are Troop's words, spewed in all seriousness: ". . . and the late Ken Caminiti, he'd do anything he could to play through an injury." Well, yeah, he would do anything he could - including enough cocaine to form his own cartel, and enough steroids to fuel the entire Giambi family. The guy was a friggin' crackhead who admitted he juiced his way to an improbable '96 NL MVP award - and this is a player Troop cites as an ultimate gamer, someone Manny should aspire to emulate. Unreal.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



While this might be the most disappointing conclusion to a Red Sox season since the incompetent Joe Kerrigan "managed" the reprehensible 2001 crew right down the toilet, at least this team and the individuals remain determined and likeable for the most part. Hey, small victories.

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