Monday, May 28, 2007

Nine innings: 05.28.07

Playing nine innings while looking forward to the Yankees' trading-deadline fire sale . . .

1. Think Dr. Charles has anything appropriately cheesy planned for Trot Nixon's return to Fenway Park today? Maybe have noted baseball songsmith Terry Cashman crank out another silly, simple tune ("The Dirty-Hat Ditty," perhaps?). It certainly seems like NESN intends on playing up the Trot angle tonight, from a pregame one-on-one interview with Tom Caron to having ol' No. 7 miked up for some goofy batting-practice banter. Who knows, maybe they'll even bring back Brian Daubach for a reunion with his old partner in grime. While we here at TATB never quite understood why Nixon was such an unconditional darling of the Dirt Dog crowd (from flipping the second out into in the stands twice to failing to hustle home before an inning-ending out could be recorded at another base twice, he always seemed to run neck-and-neck with Manny for the team lead in boneheaded plays), we always respected him for his sincere appreciation of playing in Boston, his big-moment ownership of Roger Clemens, and the fact that he was One of the 25, and the one who happened to deliver the big hit in the clinching game. No, he may never have been our favorite, but today, we will tip our dirty Sox cap his way. After 13 years in the Sox organization, we owe him that much.

2. Kevin Youkilis is batting .353, he has seven straight multi-hit games, a higher OPS than sluggers named Morneau and Teixeira . . . and you know what? I'm beginning to think he's actually this good. It's funny, but the scouts who were skeptical of Youkilis as he rose through the Red Sox system noted that for all of his patience at the plate, they didn't think he was a skilled enough hitter to always make the most of it when he did get a hittable pitch. Well, here we are three years after Youkilis first arrived in the big leagues, and it seems like the guy never misses his pitch - he's a line-drive machine. I realize he got off to a similarly scorching start last season before wearing down in the second half, but I've seen enough to be convinced that he's ready, at age 28, to put up excellent numbers all season long.

3. There are a few things about Dustin Pedroia that annoy me - the swing-from-the-heels approach to hitting, the sense that his tough-guy gripe about A-Rod's slide comes from an incurable case of what my dad used to call "little man's disease" - but I have to admit, he's winning me over as a ballplayer. He's better than advertised defensively, certainly superior to rangeless predecessor Mark Loretta, and if his classic at-bat against Eric Gagne yesterday is a fair measure, there are very few pitchers who will overmatch him despite his unorthodox uppercut swing. I'm not sure I like him yet, but I'm beginning to appreciate him.

4. Well, I guess Pedro Martinez won't be getting a bedazzler for Christmas. If you missed it, the greatest pitcher in modern Red Sox history recently weighed in on the comeback of the second-greatest pitcher in modern history, and Pedro's opinion was basically this: Right now, Roger Clemens looks like a fat, old junkballer. To which we can only say that we hope Pedro is as good a scout as he is (was?) a pitcher.

5. Speaking of Pedro, and to a lesser extent Johnny Damon, it might be time to give Theo Epstein his due for the unsentimental manner in which he refuses to overpay for the club's popular but aging stars. Pedro, of course, crumbled physically in Year 2 of his four-year deal with the Mets, and the years of playing with reckless abandon sure seem to be taking a heavy toll on Damon in his second season with the Yankees. We're not saying Pedro and Damon are finished as premier players . . . but at the moment, Theo looks shrewd for letting them leave. Kinda makes you wonder what his post-2007 plan for Curt Schilling is, doesn't it?

6. Brief Celtics aside: I vow that in 2017, when the Celtics inevitably stink and the next franchise big man (Shazaam O'Neal?) is the prize of the NBA lottery, I will not get caught up in the hype or daydream of said franchise big man in green and white until David Stern's nerdy underling pulls the Celtics' card out of the envelope as the No. 1 pick. The crushing letdown from realizing Tim Duncan, Greg Oden, or Kevin Durant will be some other franchise's grand prize is simply too much to endure again.

7. Brief Patriots aside: Since I've been telling anyone who will listen that we never would have heard of Bryan Fletcher had Junior Seau remained healthy - the one thing he can still do at an elite level is shadow tight ends and running backs in pass coverage - you bet I'm glad the Patriots are bringing him back for another year of graduate school. In a supporting role, Seau's still a very useful player.

8. As if Red Sox fans needed another reason to adore Orlando Cabrera.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


PLoved this story by Joe Posnanski (for our money, one of the two or three best sports columnist in the country - he actually seems to like sports, go figure) on the legend of Bo Jackson. if you didn't see Jackson in his too-short prime, well, you missed something truly special, but Posnanski does a wonderful job of recapturing it, particularly with the Harold Reynolds anecdote. The only time I saw Jackson play in person was in the spring of, let's see, probably '89 or '90 at Fenway, when me and a bunch of my UMaine buddies made the four-hour drive down from the Orono hinterlands for the sole purpose of seeing him (and George Brett) play. As usual, Bo did not disappoint, smashing line-drive home run off Wes Gardner that dented the back wall in centerfield, about 20 feet from where we were seated in the bleachers. I've never seen anything like it - or anything like the man who hit it, for that matter.

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Saturday, March 10, 2007

Analyzing Bill James's Red Sox projections, Part 1

Last season, Bill James projected that Kevin Youkilis would bat .278 with 14 homers and 68 RBIs in 149 games in his first full season as a big leaguer.

James, being a calculator-toting nerdling who obviously wouldn't know a baseball if one beaned him in his headgear, was, of course, wrong. Youkilis batted .279 with 13 homers and 72 RBIs in 147 games. The Mind of Bill James, my $#@.

All right, so you've got us: we were just trying to sound like your standard bitter, closed-minded, old-school, stat-mocking, Goodwill-wardrobed baseball writer there. (Our model was Murray Chass, if you must know.) As you probably realize if you've visited this space previously, we unabashadly admire James not only for the pioneering ways he has enhanced baseball analysis, but because he is one hell of a fun writer to read. There aren't too many people who can mesh words and numbers into a compelling package. He can, and you bet I'm glad he's a Red Sox employee.

Of course, that doesn't mean we always agree with his conclusions. For instance, I'm not sure how he can project Trot Nixon to hit 223 career homers, when the calcifying 33-year-old outfielder has just 133 right now and has totaled just 27 over the past three seasons. By my calculations, it would take Trot 10 years to hit the 90 he needs to fulfill James's projection. At the rate he's going, I'm not sure Trot will have all of his limbs a decade from now.

Nevertheless, it all makes for fun debate. And with that in mind, we here at TATB cracked open the 2007 Bill James Handbook that always seems to be within an arm's length, and took a look at James's 2007 stat projections for each relevant member of the Red Sox. Check out the numbers he came up with (and our take on said numbers), and let us know how accurate you think he'll be:

THE LINEUP
Julio Lugo
James's projection: .277-11-55 in 564 at-bats; 25 steals
TATB's take: Alex Gonzalez hit .255 with 9 homers and 50 RBIs in nearly 200 fewer at-bats lats season, and the 2006 season highlight reel is proof that he is just about peerless defensively. In other words, Lugo is going to have to surpass James's projections and play better D than he is known for if Sox fans are going to stop reminding him about his predecessor.

Kevin Youkilis
.283-14-77 in 584 at-bats; 101 runs; .395 OBP
These numbers seem about right for Youkilis, although you'd hope he could avoid another late-season fade and perhaps increase his power in his second season as a regular. Is 20 homers too much to ask?

Papi
.285-47-138 in 601 at-bats
I'm somewhat surprised that he forecasts a 7-homer dropoff given that Papi has increased his home run total each season since 2000 (10-18-20-31-41-47-54). Then again, how much better can the big guy possibly get? Do I hear 60 taters?

Manny
.305-37-118 in 512 at-bats; 1.004 OPS
For all of the kvetching about his quirks, there is no more reliable player in baseball in terms of offensive production. So it is that James predicts another typical Manny season, one that would leave him with 507 homers. I don't know about you, but I'm planning on being in Cooperstown for his Hall of Fame speech a dozen years or so from now. It's worth noting that James pegs Manny to play 140 games, which means 22 days' worth of mind-numbing programming for the Big Show is already preset.

J.D. Drew
.283-24-82 in 499 at-bats
A lot of the stat gurus think Drew will be hindered by Fenway power-wise and is more likely to finish in the high teens in home runs. I'm fine with swapping a few homers for a few doubles. All that really matters is that Drew stays healthy and on the field, because he will produce if he plays.

Mike Lowell
.273-18-77 in 502 at-bats
Given that his bat was as slow as Heather Mills's 40-yard-dash time in the second half last season, I'd take these numbers without a moment's hesitation. At least we know his defense will be stellar.

Jason Varitek
.259-17-69 in 468 at-bats
Ditto what I said for Lowell. I don't doubt that Varitek has the will to bounce back. It's just that 35-year-old catchers coming off knee surgery rarely do.

Coco Crisp
.284-11-54 in 511 at-bats; 23 steals
With good health, ol' Covelli Loyce eclipses these numbers with ease and duplicates the .300-16-69 line he put up in his last season with the Tribe. Let's just hope that finger is finally healed, because at 27, there's still time for him to become a dynamic offensive player.

Dustin Pedroia
.284-10-72 in 619 at-bats; 47 doubles
And with these numbers comes a dilemma: Finding a place for an AL Rookie of the Year Trophy that's bigger than he is.

(Pitchers and other suspects coming up in tomorrow's post.)

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Sunday, January 28, 2007

And yet Aaron Sele is nowhere to be found

For no other reason than because we're seriously jonesing for some baseball right about now, we offer you this: a vaguely defined, completely subjective, semi-Rotisserie-oriented list of . . .

TEN PLAYERS WE LIKE IN '07


Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: Coming off excellent back-to-back seasons in Cleveland, he got off to a fast start in his first season with the Sox . . . then busted his finger, came back too soon, tried to do too much, struggled mightily, then busted the danged digit again. He's entering his prime at age 27, and with less pressure (Johnny who?) and less responsibility (he'll likely bat 7th or 8th), we're expecting Year 2 to be his Boston breakthrough.

Gary Sheffield, OF, Tigers: He's playing for a manager he respects, he's got a fat new contract, and he's motivated to stick it to a former employer, in this case Joe Torre and the Yankees. Ask me, that's long been the recipe for a monster season from Chris House's sparring partner.

Ryan Shealy, 1B-DH, Royals: There's a reason the Red Sox have always coveted him - he can rake. He'll club 30 homers if the Royals give him 500 at-bats.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners: The phenom known as King Felix seemed weighed down with all the Doc Gooden-in-'84 comparisons entering last season . . . and he was weighed down further, so to speak, by a conditioning regimen that consisted of sleeping, engulfing Doritos, and watching TV. But he reportedly will report to spring training in fantastic shape, and if you've seen him pitch, you know he has the best stuff of any big-league pitcher not currently employed by the Minnesota Twins. And he's only 20. The sky remains the limit.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians: He's 24 and stacked up .292-24-78 numbers in '05. So Omar Vizquel's successor can't possibly be as bad as he looked at the plate (.257-13-68) and the field (16 errors, Merloni-like range) last season . . . can he?

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: While your fantasy league homies slobber (justifiably) over future batting champion Howie Kendrick, it's this young, offensively gifted AL second baseman who might wind up being the draft-day bargain at second base.


Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: Call it hyperbole, but after watching him hit .342 with 15 homers at age 23 - and scaring the hell out of me every time he came up in a key situation against the Sox - I'm convinced he's going to be a lefthanded-hitting Paul Molitor. He may want to reconsider his wardrobe choices, however. Jeter sure does make his double-play partners wear some curious outfits.

Brad Hawpe, OF, Rockies: Given the unlikely ascension to fantasy superstardom of Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins the past two seasons, we feel obligated to have at least one Coors Field hitter on this list, and the 26-year-old quietly put up .293-22-84 numbers last season.

Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox: Provided new pitching coach John Farrell can drill through the sediment around his thick skull.

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: Okay, so he was really a sleeper last year . . . but man, did anyone realize that the 28-year-old Oakland discard led the National League in strikeouts, and tied Derek Lowe among others for the league lead in wins? Talk about a quietly brilliant season.

. . . AND ONE WE DON'T

Trot Nixon, OF/Gimp, Cleveland: Nick Cafardo tells us Captain Dirty Cap "worked out harder this offseason that he has in many years." Well then, I'm convinced. Ol' No. 7 is absolutely poised for a monster comeba . . . whoa, wait a minute. Pardon my naivete, but I was under the impression real Dirt Dogs always kept in shape. You mean the back injury he got while driving was the result of him having a midsection that looked more like a keg than a six-pack? On second thought, good riddance, slug.

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Thursday, January 18, 2007

That's the best Aquafina I've ever had, bro

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free goodies from Michael Vick's hidden compartment for you . . .

1. We'd be remiss if we didn't offer a tip of the dirty cap to Trot Nixon, whose 14-season tenure with the Red Sox organization officially came to an end today when he signed a one-year, $3 million deal with Cleveland. Trot was never one of our personal favorites - we thought his Dirt Dog persona allowed him to get away with certain flaws and blunders that other, less-gritty types were incessantly harangued for - but we have always respected him for how much he genuinely appreciated playing for the Red Sox. And as Roger Clemens, Jason Marquis, or Rich Harden can tell you, he's had his share of unforgettable moments. We're not disappointed he's gone, but given that he was one of The 25 (only eight remain, sadly), the least we can do is wish him well.

2. It's not only "SportsCenter" that gives an inordinate amount of air and space to sports' most prolific idiots - apparently, the Forum-For-Morons philosophy in Bristol also applies to ESPN The Magazine, which managed to cram features about Albert Haynesworth, Ron Artest, and Bode Miller into it's last edition. (What, was T.O. unavailable?) The biggest upset of all wasn't that all three are (sob) misunderstood, but that Haynesworth (a divorce-bound psycho) receives some words of encouragement during a random encounter with a Lamborghini-driving Rodney Harrison at a Waffle House in Atlanta. Read that last sentence again, and I'll bet you find yourself asking the same three questions I did: 1) Rodney Harrison drives a Lamborghini? 2) Rodney Harrison hangs out at Waffle House? 3) Why the hell was Rodney Harrison doing driving his Lamborghini to a Waffle House in Atlanta during the middle of the season? It's almost too much for my pea brain to comprehend.

3. We tend to avoid linking to You Tube videos around here, mostly because we tend to skip them without a second thought when we see them on other sites. But because I'm running low on time and topics tonight, I figured I'd imbed a couple on here that readers have sent me in recent days, with the seal of approval that they are worth your time. Hey, we never said we were consistent.

The first was sent along a couple days ago from one of my old cohorts at the Concord Monitor, and let's just say it's the most damning evidence yet that the Chargers have no business yelping about another team's lack of class:



The second video here is to the trailer for the upcoming Will Ferrell movie "Blades of Glory," which looks from this angle to be the figure skating version of "Talledega Nights" - in other words, it can't miss. This clip was sent along by one of the film's marketing people, and I'm putting it on here even though he couldn't deliver on my offer to run it only if he introduced me to a certain one of the film's co-stars. Hmm, I guess we don't have as much clout in Hollywood as we thought:



4. I'm only about three-quarters through it after opening the cover yesterday, but I can say without hesitation that Jack McCallum's ":07 Seconds Or Less," an insider's account of the 2005-'06 Phoenix Suns, is the most enjoyable and insightful NBA book I've read since first devouring David Halberstam's timeless "The Breaks of the Game" 20-something years ago. I'm an NBA guy, but this book has confirmed my suspicion that the league would be infinitely more entertaining and aesthetically pleasing if there were, oh, 25 more coaches like Mike D'Antoni. (Cloning Steve Nash wouldn't be a bad idea, either.) Seriously, check it out, and while you're at it, pick up "Unfinished Business," McCallum's first foray into the season-with-a-team genre about the 1990-'91 Celtics. It's worth it for the Bird and McHale anecdotes alone.

5. Color us mildly intrigued by the Sox's signing of journeyman outfielder Alex Ochoa. I know that's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but I was surprised to learn upon checking out his numbers on baseball-reference.com that he was a .279 hitter overall in his eight big-league seasons, and he hit lefties at a .287 clip. Factor in that he has one of the best outfield arms in the game, and I'm wondering if his arrival suggests that Wily Mo Pena isn't long for Boston.

6. Greg Oden looks so old, I'm pretty sure he played alongside Dr, J on the Virginia Squires . . . Greg Oden looks so old, he could play LeBron's gramps in those Nike ads . . . Greg Oden looks so old, I'm wondering if he and Clifford Ray have ever been seen in the same room together . . . all right, I think I've got a season's worth of lame Oden's Age jokes out of my system now . . .

7. . . . in a related note, the Celtics have 12 wins at the moment. Doing some quick math here on my abacus, that means I hope they finish with no fewer than 70 losses. Paul Pierce can take the rest of the season off for all I care. The best thing to happen to the franchise would be to tank this season, cross their fingers for a little luck with the ping-pong balls, and land a true franchise player such as Oden (who's no sure thing to leave Ohio State) or Texas's phenomenal freshman Kevin Durant. We might as well face it - getting a certified future superstar on draft night is their only chance to escape from this dull cycle of mediocrity.

8. Can't say I blame Notre Dame wide receiver Jeff Samardzija for choosing his burgeoning pitching career with the Cubs over the chance to be a first-round pick in this year's NFL - it's hard to fault anyone for wanting to walk at age 50. But Samardzija, who drew comparisons to ex-Bronco Ed McCaffrey because . . . well, because he's tall, white, and pretty damn good, is a player the Kipers of the world had pegged going to the Patriots late in the first round. And considering the kid's Charlie Weis endorsement, that might have made some sense. I am curious if he will be selected at all - who knows, by the time the draft rolls around in April, he might be done with baseball after Lou Piniella blows his arm out in spring training.

9. All right, people, convince me it's not going to come down to Vinatieri. Because right now I just can't shake the feeling that ol' No. 4 is destined to decide this thing.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Card:

Should the Colts and Saints prevail this Sunday, Peyton's Stage Daddy will be more ubiquitous than Rachael Ray over the next two weeks. And no one wants that.

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Sunday, October 01, 2006

Closed for the summer

Appropriate ending when you think about it, what with circumstances conspiring to ruin something potentially memorable one last time. I could be talking about the small picture of Game 162 (Mother Nature washing out Devern Hansack's improbable no-hit bid) or the big picture of all 162 games (an ER's worth of ill-timed injuries derailing a bid for a fourth consecutive playoff berth). And of course, both the season and its finale ended sooner than we expected.

So now we must speak of this 86-win, third-place bummer of a season in the past tense. And while we'll save our deeper analysis and crackpot theories about What Went Wrong for another rainy day, let's spend a few words on the remaining players who made this season what it was, for better or worse:

CATCHERS
Jason Varitek
.238, 12 HRs, 55 RBIs: Catchers notoriously decline offensively at age 32, and Varitek followed the well-worn pattern this season; he can't hit a good pitching anymore, and ideally, he'd bat eighth or ninth in the lineup at this point. But Lord, how he was missed when he was knocked out for a month by a knee problem. He's still a stalwart defensively, calls a good game and commands respect, and is worth every penny of his contract even when he's flailing at an eye-high fastball.

Doug Mirabelli.193-6-25: He was washed up last year . . . and yet I bet I Doug Mirabelli still thinks the Sox trade of Cla Meredith and Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli and Doug Mirabelli's massive ego was a fantastic trade for the Red Sox. Yes, Doug Mirabelli brings new meaning to the phrase "tool of ignorance."

DESIGNATED HITTER
David Ortiz
.287-54-137: What else can be said? When the games mattered, he made sure DH stood for Designated Hero. And when the season was lost, his successful bid to set the single-season franchise homer mark gave us reason to cheer again. When Papi's around, it's always a blast. Please don't take him for granted, because he's a once-in-a-fan's-lifetime gift.

INFIELDERS
Kevin Youkilis
.279-13-72: He was so steady that it was easy to forget that this was really his first full season - and on top of establishing himself as an everyday player, he made the transition from third base to first with remarkable grace. The Eck noted tonight he thought Youks played Gold Glove defense. Given his immensely valuable ability to work the count and wear down pitchers, The Greek . . . er, Jewish God of Walks should be the leadoff hitter next season. Now if he'd just stop bitching after every called strike . . .

Mark Loretta .285-5-59: He's about as exciting as vanilla ice cream, he has the range of your grandmother's walker, and the stragglers from the Jeff Frye Admiration Society tend to exaggerate his contributions . . . yet he had his share of late-inning highlights, he catches everything hit his way and turns two with grace and precision, and he's still a tough out even though he's primarily a singles hitter these days. My verdict: Sign him for one more year, if he's willing, and let Pedroia shorten that swing down in Pawtucket.

Alex Gonzalez.255-9-50: I'm sorry, but he won't win the Gold Glove. Didn't you get the memo from McCarver? This is the year to fete Captain Jetes for all his excellent years in anonymity, and he's going to collect this award (among others) despite the fact that Gonzalez is the best defensive shortstop in the AL since Omar Vizquel had all his hair. It was a treat to watch him and Lowell turn the left side of the infield into Web Gem Central, and despite his particle board bat, I hope he's back in Boston next season if the price is right.

Mike Lowell .284-20-80: The best defensive third baseman the Sox have had since Butch Hobson (oh, c'mon, he was my boyhood hero; cut me some slack, people). Seriously, he was Gold Glove-worthy (as are Beltre, Crede, and Chavez), and while he was streaky, his final numbers at the plate are perfectly acceptable. I have a slight concern that he'll have a hard time repeating this output next season, but if the Sox keep Manny and get a legit No. 5 hitter, he won't be asked to do so much.

Alex Cora .238-1-18: He's bright, versatile, and despite a punchless offensive season, he's exactly what you want in a utility infielder. Keep him, I say.

Dustin Pedroia .191-2-7: Some see him as David Eckstein. Others as a young Jody Reed. So far, all I've seen is Brett Abernathy.

Carlos Pena .273-1-3: The Sox should have brought him in instead of J.T. Snow in the first place.

OUTFIELDERS
Manny Ramirez:
.321-35-102: I plan on getting into the Manny Situation more in a future episode, so for now I'll leave it at this: If, during one of his patented midsummer tears next season for the Mets or Angels or whichever team the Sox award him to over the winter, some smug dinkus of a Boston sportscaster has the nerve to say, "Why can't we get players like that?" after spending the better part of six seasons trying to drive Manny away, well, I might just have to drive into Boston just to pull said sportscaster's hair plugs out with my bare hands.

Coco Crisp .264-8-36: So at least we know the truth: He was never healthy. I remember how wowed I was by him in spring training and during his pre-injury debut against the Rangers - he was electric - and despite the belief that he's no leadoff hitter, I hope he gets a second season to show his stuff in Boston. He deserves that much.

Trot Nixon .268-8-52: All right . . . I'll miss him. A little. If only for sentimentality's sake. His tenure with the Sox dates back to my college years, he did bust his ass and try to do the right thing, and as Roger Clemens and Rich Harden can attest, he had his moments in the clutch through the years. And of course, he was One of The 25, delivering the game-breaking hit in the World Series clincher. But the truth is that he's crumbled into an injury prone, underproductive, overpaid over-30 albatross, just the kind of player the Sox should be trying to distance themselves from. Trot was the Mike Greenwell of his era, albeit with an extra branch or two on the family tree, and like Greenie before him, his popularity outweighed his productivity near the end. It's time to tip the dirty hat and say goodbye.

Wily Mo Pena .301-11-42: It pains me to say this, because I was in agreement with the Arroyo deal and enjoyed watching Pena's occasional moonshots, but . . . I hope they trade him in the offseason. I have major doubts that he's ever going to develop the plate discipline and pitch-recognition skills to be a consistent hitter; he often looks as if he's made up his mind to swing before the pitch is delivered. And defensively, he reminds me of Kevin Mitchell circa '96, which means I cover my eyes, hope for the best, and usually witness the worst when the ball is hit his way.

Gabe Kapler .254-2-12: I hope he's still reporting to work at Fenway next season - as Eck's backup analyst on the pre- and post-game shows.

David Murphy .227-1-2: Eh. I can live with him as a fourth outfielder, but I'm skeptical that he'll develop enough power to justify a regular role for a playoff contender.

Eric Hinske .288-1-5: This year's version of Butch Huskey, an alleged slugger picked up late in the season who makes a habit of whiffing in crucial situations. But as a patient switch-hitter who historically mashes righties, he should be a useful stick off the bench next season.

STARTING PITCHERS
Curt Schilling
15-7, 3,97 ERA: He wasn't, as the song goes, as good as he once was, going six weeks without a win and developing a maddening habit of letting small leads slip away in the middle innings. But in the context of his lost 2005 season, 15 wins is a hell of a comeback.

Josh Beckett 16-11, 5.01: Greg Maddux once said the more trouble he is in, the slower he pitches, meaning he uses the hitters' aggressiveness against them. Something tells me Boston's version of Nuke LaLoosh would grunt and call Maddux a *&*%* for believing in that that philosophy. He needs to grow up and learn to pitch rather than throw, or the names Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez could haunt the Red Sox front office honchos the way Derek Lowe and Varitek did Woody Woodward.

Tim Wakefield 7-11, 4.63: The Sox dearly missed his bullpen-saving ability to eat multiple innings at a 4-something ERA clip, but now that he's 40 and coming off his first injury in years, it's time to start thinking about him as a fifth starter rather than as a third or fourth.

Julian Tavarez 5-4, 4.47: If the Sox were beginning the playoffs this week, he'd likely be your No. 3 starter. Chew on that for a moment.

Matt Clement 5-5, 6.61: I can't help but remember Gammons floating a notion at around this point last season that the Sox and Dodgers should consider a Clement for D-Lowe swap. How I wish they had.

Jon Lester 7-2, 4.76: We're all rooting for a victory more important than any he'll ever achieve on the ballfield. Get well, kid.

Jonathan Papelbon 4-2, 0.92, 35 saves: The Sox's collapse and his season-ending shoulder scare have cost Papelbon some of the plaudits he deserves for his historically dominant rookie season, and that's too bad, because he may have been the team's MVP in the first half. While he was virtually unhittable as a closer, at least until he grew weary late in the season, I'm glad the Sox are moving him to the rotation, if only because I'm a believer that it's wiser to use your best pitcher for 200 innings rather than 60. It will likely keep his arm in better condition, too. Prediction: Papelbon wins 17 games next season and is a better starter than any of the Zitos and Schmidts available as a free agent over the winter.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Keith Foulke
3-1, 4.35: Every season, there are always a few seemingly washed-up relievers who, for a variety of reasons, enjoy a major career rejuvenation. (Think: Wickman, Bob, and Jones, Todd.) I'm betting on Foulke to be one of those guys next season. I want him back.

Mike Timlin 6-6, 4..36: When you're 40 and you've pissed away the second half of the season getting lit up by the likes of Kevin Millar, it's time to start plannin' some possum huntin' expeditions for the summer months, if you get my drift.

Manny Delcarmen 2-0, 5.06: Everyone roots for the local boy to make good, but his command is too inconsistent and his fastball is too straight for Hyde Park's own to be considered anything more than a middle reliever at this point.

Craig Hansen 2-2, 6.63: Questions, I've got some questions: Where's the filthy slider that he supposedly used to torment the Big East? Have the Sox mishandled him to the point he's lost his stuff and his confidence? Is he familiar with the work of Calvin Schiraldi? He should start next season in Pawtucket with no pressure and no expectations, and work from there.

Javier Lopez: 1-0, 2.70: He doesn't throw enough strikes, and a lefty specialist who comes in and walks his lone batter is a useless as a Giambi without a chemistry set.

Kyle Snyder 4-5, 6.56: If only he hadn't sacrificed 7 miles per hour on his fastball to the blade of Dr. Andrews' knife. You can see why he was such a highly regarded prospect with Kansas City - his curveball is a legitimate out pitch, and his tailing changeup gives him decent secondary stuff - but unless he gets better command or regains a few m.p.h on the heater, he's nothing but an Arroyo wannabe.

Devern Hansack 1-1, 2.70: Well, that No-Hitter-With-An-Asterisk was certainly a hell of an audition for some role next season. Not only am I pulling for him, but having watched him pitch the Sea Dogs to the Eastern League title, I can say with a certain degree of confidence that he's got better stuff, command, and composure than quite a few established big league pitchers.

Kason Gabbard 1-3, 3.51: Another slopballing lefty who prays to the altar of Jamie Moyer. And yet . . . Jerry Remy is on record as being impressed with Gabbard, and he did pitch very well more often than not. I'm naturally skeptical of a guy who struggled for almost two full seasons in Double A, but he showed enough to earn a second job interview next spring.

OTHER SUSPECTS RUMORED TO BE PITCHERS
Mike Burns: Man, did the Pats show us something today or what? The whole Shutting Down An Offensive Juggernaut With a Shorthanded Defense was straight out of Belichick's 2003 championship blueprint, Maroney is an absolute beast, and Brady did his part to silence the shrill sky-is-falling nonsense from the Felgers of the world. Suddenly, I'm feeling very good about this team . . . and if you think I'm writing this because I wouldn't know Mike Burns if he ran off with my wife, you'd be correct.

Bryan Corey: He pitched well once earlier this season against the Sox while with Texas. So at least I can say I saw him pitch well once.

Kevin Jarvis: He didn't belong in the major leagues five years ago.

Lenny DiNardo: I'm beginning to think he has a lifetime contract as the 12th man on the staff. He's shown me nothing, and he has a World Series ring and some great tales as Bronson Arroyo's wingman to show for it.

Craig Breslow: He's better than Lopez. Then again, I think Tony Fossas would be an upgrade on both of them.

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Sunday, September 24, 2006

Easy like Sunday morning

And with that horrific but appropriate Lyric O' Lionel planted in your head for the rest of the day, here's an abbreviated edition of Nine Innings, along with a programming announcement: Wife and kids permitting, I'm going to attempt to live blog the Pats-Broncos game tonight, so be sure to check in around 8:15ish and keep refreshing, because I'll be writing . . . and I apologize for this . . . All night long . . . All night . . . Yeahhhh . . .

1. I'm reluctant to weigh in on any recent anti-Manny missives for obvious reasons, so let me just direct you to Seth Mnookin's reasoned take while I say this: Ripping Manny is one thing - hell, even I'd admit it's justified if it turns out the whole patellar tendinitis thing is a cover-up for his indifference - but it drives me absolutely nuts when Trot Nixon is held up as the definitive example of Mr. Team, The Dirty-Hatted Embodiment Of What Manny Should Aspire To Be. I mean, can we be serious here? Yeah, Nixon hustles on all those routine grounders to second . . . but he also can't stay healthy, doesn't appear to take conditioning seriously, has suffered a mysterious loss of power, was subpar before his injury, missed six weeks with a strained freakin' biceps muscle, and has been atrocious after the injury to the point he's hurting the team by so "courageously" playing through the pain. He's going to make a hell of a mediocre Oriole next season, and I can't wait.

2. A-Rod claims that he will not waive his no-trade clause to leave New York after this season, but wouldn't it be just like him to make such a faux-tough-guy pronouncement while behind the scenes, his other face tells Scott Boras to start pushing for a deal? I'll bet you Derek Jeter's little black book that A-Rod is Anaheim next season. It makes perfect sense. Getting rid of A-Rod for, say, Chone Figgins and a pitcher (hopefully not Ervin Santana), would be a great deal for the Yankees simply from the addition-by-subtraction standpoint. And Anaheim is the perfect place for A-Rod. Owner Arte Moreno covets star-power and needs a slugger behind Vladi, it's a very good team, A-Rod could go back to playing short again, there's no pressure, and with all the phonies in L.A., he'd feel right at home.

3. Cla Meredith says he started pitching well again once he realized he should disregard everything the Red Sox tried to teach him. Gammons says Craig Hansen looks nothing like the unhittable sinker/slider power pitcher who ruled the Cape League two summers ago. And there's no need to list the staff's worth of pitchers who have thrived once they've departed Boston. So I ask: Is it possible that neither Al Nipper nor Dave Wallace really has any clue what he's doing?

4. I didn't think it was possible to admire Big Papi any more than I already did, but after he came up with the idea of posing for photos before a game for $100 a pop to pay for a sick little girl's care at Dana Farber, well, it's heartwarming to know he's as clutch off the field as he is on it.

5. You bet I hope Keith Foulke is back in Boston next season. That recently revealed split finger looks like a legitimate out pitch, and as Theo has learned the hard way, half the battle in building a bullpen is finding the right reclamation projects. After two lost seasons, right now he looks like a decent bet to find his old form in '07. Hey, if Todd Jones could come back and be useful, anyone can.

6. And will we're on the topic of renovating the bullpen, I have to admit I'm intrigued by the rumors that the Sox covet Houston closer Brad Lidge. Sure, Lidge has had an inordinate number of peaks and valleys this season - he's the current embodiment of a heart-attack closer - and he's probably still spooked by that Mars-shot he gave up to Albert Pujols in the playoffs last season. But he has an astounding 98 strikeouts in 68.2 innings, which suggests that his stuff is still filthy even if his confidence is shaken, and he's only 29. Assuming the price is reasonable, I'd call him a good risk with a potentially great reward.

7. The Herald floated the notion this week that Matt Clement could be in the mix for the closer role next season. Riiiiight, just as soon as Theo signs Schiraldi and Slocumb to be his set-up men. Other than the fact that Clement 1) takes forever to warm up 2) generally stuggles in his first inning of work, and 3) has the intestinal fortitude of a newborn kitten, it's a brilliant idea.

8. Wasn't that thrilled with "The Office" season premiere at first - the Michael/Oscar stuff was just a little too over the top, and the dynamic was off without Jim in the Scranton office. But upon further viewing, I've come to think it's one of the better episodes yet, both in terms of humor (Creed's free-love flashback just killed me, and Roy's Nolte-esque mug shot was classic) and the subtle ways in which Jim and Pam are shown longing for each other (the empty chair, Jim commenting on his new view when his old view was lovelier). Two seasons and one episode into its run, and I have no qualms about saying "The Office" is my second-favorite comedy of all-time, after "Seinfeld" and well ahead of the dated "Cheers."

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


A wicked fun snippet from Bob Klapisch's current column on ESPN.com:

"[Reggie] Jackson doesn't mind getting in A-Rod's face on occasion. And, to be fair, Rodriguez does listen with respect. He did just that with Giambi, too. But all Giambi was doing was filling a conversational void created by the one Yankee who could have -- and perhaps should have -- confronted A-Rod.

"That would be Jeter, of course. If there's anyone who could make Rodriguez understand the difference between greatness and greatness under pressure, it's the guy batting almost .400 with runners in scoring position. But anyone hoping for a Jeter-Rodriguez summit shouldn't hold their breath. The cold war between them is even more pronounced than the one with Mussina. Jeter reportedly has never forgiven A-Rod for the disparaging remarks he made in Esquire in 2001, and as one Yankee official said, "There is no coming back from one of Derek's grudges. Once you're gone, you're gone."

"Rodriguez shouldn't feel that bad, really. Jeter apparently did the same to Mariah Carey a decade ago, cutting off their relationship so abruptly -- and remaining so determined not to let the singer back into his good graces -- that kids created the slang-verb "Jeter-ed" to mean getting forever dumped.

So personal grudges take priority over what's best for the New York Yankees? The evidence is mounting, McCarver. The captain has no clothes. (In the spirit of fairness, Klapisch also wrote this insightful piece on why Jeter is so guarded and aloof. And I do give Jetes credit for ditching Mariah. After all, she's loonier than A-Rod and has a more unnatural physique than Giambi.)

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Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Summer school


Per the request of Steve R., one of TATB's Original 6 readers, I've stopped watching the Disney Channel's Boy Meets World marathon long enough to bang out this midseason report card on your first-place and eminently enjoyable Boston Red Sox. As a DVD extra, I've posted Steve's own player-by-player take in the comments section, just to get some discussion going. Feel free to add your 2 cents. In the meantime, I'll be wondering whatever happened to Fred Savage's homely, talentless kid brother . . .

THE LINEUP
Kevin Youkilis
(.297, 10 homers, 43 RBIs): One of the many wise moves Tito Francona has made this season is restoring Youkilis to the leadoff spot when it was apparent Coco Crisp was still rusty. Youkilis isn't a classic leadoff hitter in the Willie Mays Hayes sense, but would you rather have a guy who runs really fast and gets on at a .320 OBP clip, or a guy like Youkilis who gets on 40 percent of the time and always seems to be trotting home ahead of a Papi blast? It doesn't take Bill James to realize you're better off with dude who gets on base more often. (Actually, maybe it does take Bill James to realize that.) Oh, yeah, and Youk's taken to this first base thing pretty well, too, hasn't he? A-

Mark Loretta (.305-3-37): He's exactly what we hoped he'd be. Loretta catches everything he can get his glove on, turns the double play as if he and Gonzalez have been playing together for years, hits to all fields (and hits good pitchers, an underrated talent), and is such a gentleman that when Tina Cervasio asks him such vapid questions as, "What do you like better, a walk-off hit or a walk-off home run?" he somehow resists rolling his eyes. Gotta like a guy like that. B+

Big Papi (.278-31-87): One of the cool things about this blogging gig is that sometimes readers remind you of something you've completely forgotten you'd written. I realized this again yesterday, when I was poking around the new Wiki project on Sons of Sam Horn, and noticed, much to my ego's delight, that in their bio of Papi (not "Pappy," Berman, you idiot) that they've included a quote from my post on this site after his walkoff homer against the Orioles last season. (About a dozen walkoffs ago, correct?) As I mentioned, I don't recall writing these words, but I think they hold up in describing his finest year yet, Joe Maddon be damned:

"He's Mo Vaughn with an uncanny knack in the clutch and no strippers-and-bacon-sandwiches baggage. He's Reggie Jackson without being an arrogant, phony $%%#@. He's Dave Henderson with more ability, more pure power, more duende. He is the greatest clutch hitter you, your dad, your granddad, and in all likelihood, your unborn children will ever see. He's Big Papi, larger than life, bigger than the biggest moments."


Yeah, that's about right. A+

Manny Ramirez (.306-24-65): I'm white. I have something of a pulpit. And while I'm only 36, my midsection suggests middle age is approaching faster than I care to admit. All of that considered, I'm afraid it's my obligation to rip Manny for not attending last night's all-important exhibition game. I don't want to be a hypocrite, mind you. Personally, I'd like to acknowledge Manny as the most consistantly great righthanded hitter I've ever seen, as a much-improved defender, as an endearing, happy-go-lucky goof whose occasional adolescent misbehavior is something I long ago accepted as part of the package. But instead, my demographics demand that I yelp and yowl and stand on my creaky soapbox and defend the Ye Grand Ole Game in front of an audience that has long since tuned me out. With all the indignance I can contrive, I must demean Manny for the Way He Disrespects The Game, even as My Beacon Of All That Is Good, the gritty and gutty Trot Nixon, airmails yet another cutoff man. It's my duty. It comes with the microphone and the Tostito gut. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go engulf another sandwich. A

Trot Nixon (.311-6-43): The batting average is lovely, but where'd the power go? Admiral Dirty Hat has as many extra-base hits as Scott Podsednik. B-

Mike Lowell (.307-11-46): The offensive resurgence has been a bonus, one very few of us expected. But the real treat in watching Lowell on a daily basis is his defense. Does he ever make a throw that's not right on the money? A-

Jason Varitek (.232-9-40): Uh-oh. Is this a prolonged slump . . . or is it the predictable decline of a catcher on the wrong side of 30? I'm not sure I want the honest answer. C-

Coco Crisp (.268-4-14): He was dazzling in that opening road trip, got hurt, and has been playing catch-up every since. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at the plate - a hand injury can really mess with your swing - but I have to admit I'm a little disappointed in his defense. He takes terrible routes to line drives in the gap, and too many seemingly catchable balls fall in front of him. I thought Johnny Damon slipped a lot last season, but last year's Damon was a better defender than this year's Crisp. C-

Alex Gonzalez (.284-5-27): All right, y'all have convinced me. He's the best defensive player ever to wear the Red Sox uniform. If he hits above .270 - and considering the overtime he's putting in with Papa Jack, I think he will - I hope the Sox keep him around beyond this season. B+

THE ROTATION
Curt Schilling
(10-3, 3.60 ERA): He's not quite what he used to be - he has a maddening new habit of giving back runs right after the Sox put a few on the board - but he still defines the term "workhorse," and there's no one else I'd want on the mound in a game of consequence. Thank the baseball god above that he returned to health after his lost 2005. B+

Josh Beckett
(11-4, 4.75):I expected more, which is saying something considering he's on pace to win 21 games. It's easy to forget, because of his early big-league success, that Beckett is still a kid himself, just a few months older than Jonathan Papelbon. He still has some growing to do, both as a pitcher and in terms of maturity. His knack for giving up home runs (26, or roughly one every four innings) is a mystery, but something tells me that if he can knock off the macho b.s. on the mound and start pitching rather than daring them to hit his heat, the number of baseballs leaving the ballpark will decrease rapidly. Ah, well. At least he hasn't had any blister problems. C+

Tim Wakefield
(7-8, 4.05): As consistent and reliable as a knuckleballer can be. Let's hope this back flareup doesn't become a chronic hindrance, or we might suddenly realize how much some of us take him for granted. B

Jon Lester
(4-0, 3.06): The 20 walks in 32.1 innings are alarming, and I'm worried about . . . ah, hell, who am I kidding? I'm as giddy as the rest of you. Not only does he have top-of-the-rotation stuff (once he sharpens his command, of course), but I'm sure I'm not the only one still blabbering about the humongous cojones the kid must have to throw David Wright a 3-2 curveball with the bases loaded. He is as good as they said. B+

Matt Clement
(5-5, 6.61): He won five? Really? Here's a prediction: Clement has thrown his last straight fastball as a member of the Red Sox. John Henry will be paying the Pirates (or the Brewers . . . or the Padres . . .) to take him off our hands once he proves healthy. I'd say he never should have come to Boston in the first place - clearly he isn't made for this city, and vice versa - but I have vague recollections of a decent first half last season. Must be another hallucination. F

THE 'PEN
Jonathan Papelbon
(0.59 ERA, 26 saves in 29 chances): I've run out of superlatives for this Clemens/Gossage hybrid, so let's just throw out a couple more statistics. In 46 innings, he's allowed 25 hits and walked only 8 while striking out 47. That's a hell of a Strat-O-Matic card. A+

Mike Timlin
(4-0, 2.59): He's 40, his velocity is down, and his shoulder hurts. Good thing he can still get batters out just by making eye contact and scaring the living hell out of them. B-

Manny Delcarmen
(1-0, 3.52): Good thing the Sox refused to include him in the Crisp/Marte deal with Cleveland. He's got a classic bullpen power arm, his 12-to-6 curveball is shaping up to be a strikeout pitch, and the likeable local boy no longer seems awestruck when he comes into the game at Fenway. I'm a believer. B

Craig Hansen
(1-0, 4.63): I don't know if it's Al Nipper (I'm skeptical) or one of the minor league pitching coaches, but someone is doing fine work preparing these kids. Hansen has come along way from the raw chucker we saw during last September's desperation. He's lost most of the unnecessary kinks in his motion and repeats his delivery pitch after pitch. The result seems to be better movement on his fastball and better command of his breaking stuff. He might mean to this season what Papelbon meant last year. B-

Javier Lopez
(5.40): His success against Jim Thome bodes well, but I still say they should have kept Mike Myers. C

Keith Foulke
(5.63): Ignore what Johnny from Burger King says. We'll always have October 2004, and we'll always wonder if you sacrificed the rest of your career to make our baseball dreams come true. C-

Julian Tavarez (4.56): At the risk of annihilating my last shred of credibility, I think he can still help. Sure, he's nuts, but he's got a long track record of being effective, he's pitched for good teams, and his fastball still has good movement. He's not going to be your eighth-inning bridge to Paps, but there are worse alternatives. (Like the next guy . . .) D

Rudy Seanez (4.86) Just go back to the NL already and we'll pretend this inexplicable sequel never happened, 'kay?. F-

THE BENCH
Alex Cora
(.300): Fast becoming known as the RemDawg's man-crush. Tito seems pretty fond of him, too, and with good reason: Cora does something every time he plays that makes you say, "Wow, that was smart." I can't think of a better utility player in Sox history. A-

Gabe Kapler
(.355) It's impossible not to like Kapler, because he's one of the good ones. But I never realized I'd actually miss him as a player until enduring the Dustan Mohr experience for a couple weeks. Welcome back, indeed. B

Wily Mo Pena
(.321, 4 homers): He's younger than, what, all but five current members of the Sea Dogs? Give him time and give him a chance, will ya? C

Doug Mirabelli:
(.175): Congratulations to the 'EEI banshees for raising the "BAHHHHHD CAN'T CATCH A KNUCKLAH!!" panic level to the point that the Sox felt obligated to trade improving Josh Bard for Wakefield's calcified caddy. I'm still dismayed Theo found this necessary. F

Willie Harris
: (.159): He should never be allowed to swing a Louisville Slugger in anger, but hey, he made a disaster-averting throw to get Gathright, his jet-pack legs have proven useful on occasion, he's versatile defensively, and his teammates adore him. What more do you want from the 25th man? C

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