TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted Spring Training Preview Capsules: AL East

(Sixth in a six-part series, teams listed in predicted order of finish).

NEW YORK YANKEES
Foul pops and other observations: I pick the Red Sox every year, and every year the Yankees win the division. Time to break out the old reverse jinx, fellas . . . Not that the Yankees' lineup isn't championship-quality. Superstar-to-be Robinson Cano hit .342 last year, trailing only Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter in the AL. He'll bat eighth. Yikes . . . Derek Jeter's numbers matched his reputation last season. I'm not saying he should have won the MVP, but he was much more valuable to the Yankees than Justin Morneau was to the Twins . . . All right, I'm ready to admit it now. Letting Johnny Damon go was a massive mistake, and yes, it still looks weird to see him clean-shaven and neutered into the True Yankee cult . . .You tell me which vitamins he's taking, and then I'll tell you what kind of season Jason Giambi will have . . . I don't care if he hits 45 homers (and he damn well might): If A-Rod is back with the Yankees in 2008, I'll eat a bowl of Joe Torre's nose hair . . . Though it's hard to believe now that he was once considered the next Dale Murphy, Josh Phelps is a decent gamble at first base. He has 57 homers in 1,203 career at-bats, and he won't be 28 until next month . . . Jorge Posada has declined slightly at the plate, but he's a far better defensive catcher than he was in the days when Cone and Clemens, among others, disliked throwing to him . . . But about that starting pitching . . . When Carl Pavano is your opening day starter, you know there are some issues, no matter what the circumstances . . . Nineteen-game winner Chien-Ming Wang is a lightning rod for debate between the scouts and the stat guys. Scouts will tell you Wang can be a top-of-the-rotation starter because of his tremendous sinker, which produces groundout after groundout when he is on. The stat guys look at his strikeout rate (barely three per nine innings last year) and tell you no pitcher in history has ever succeeded for any length of time with such a pathetic K-rate. I'm rooting for the stat guys on this one . . . Maybe Andy Pettitte will be the answer (though rumor has it that he has Dr. Jobe on speed dial), but if the starters aren't better than expected, Scott Proctor's right arm will be hanging by a thread by August . . . The most similar pitcher to Mike Mussina, according to baseballreference: Juan Marichal. Not bad company . . . The drama is unmatched, but 18 regular-season games between the Sox and the Yankees? That's getting to be too many for my nerves.

Breakthrough player: Philip Hughes. He'll be a major factor as soon as he arrives.

Breakdown player: A-Rod. Emotionally, not physically.

Completely random Bill James stat: A-Rod led American League players in fielding errors with 14. (That excludes throwing errors.)

BOSTON RED SOX
(Extended preview capsule coming Monday. How's that for a cop out?)

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Foul pops and other observations: The Jays will prove a worthy summer-long opponent to the Sox and Yankees, but come September, they'll be looking up at the big boys . . . Why? They don't have the lineup depth of the Yankees or the pitching depth of the Sox . . . Roy Halladay is the ace of the division, capable of winning a Cy Young award in any given year. But he's followed by perennial tease A.J. Burnett, erratic Gustavo Chacin, journeyman Tomo Ohka, and, almost unfathomably, atrocious slopballer Josh Towers, who beat out Victor Zambrano for the fifth spot. Halladay and Burnett need to win 40 games between them just to make the rest of the rotation sufferable . . . It would help if Chacin, who was 4-0 against the Sox last year, could stay healthy, but he's already in John Gibbons's doghouse and is Toronto's early frontrunner for the Hillenbrand/Lilly Award, given annually to the Jay who is most likely to get sucker-punched by his manager . . . This lineup will score some runs, though anyone expecting Frank Thomas to duplicate his comeback season Oakland is probably a member of the Ricciardi family. Thomas played in in just 108 games the previous two seasons, and he'll be 39 next month . . . Vernon Wells is one of the premier all-around players in the American League, a class act who is just now hitting his prime . . . and yet, I get this nagging sense that he should be better. His numbers stagnated after his breakout 2003, when he went .317-33-117, and he hit just .272 in '04 and .269 in '05 before bouncing back at .303-33-106 last year. Given his ability (and paycheck), he needs to build on those numbers rather than regress again . . . The rumors are so prevalent that you have to figure there is some truth to them, but I can't understand why the Jays would consider dealing Alex Rios. He was on his way to putting up Wells-like numbers before he was sidetracked by a staph infection . . . Sox fans won't complain that two longtime pests have moved on, Frank Catalanotto to Texas and lefty Ted Lilly to the Chicago Cubs. Now if we could just do something about Reed Johnson and Gregg Zaun.

Breakthrough player: Aaron Hill. After a horrendous start last season, the former first-round pick show resilience in battling back to finish at .291. (It was tempting to pick Adam Lind here, but the slugging outfielder is beginning the season at Syracuse.)

Breakdown player: Thomas. The Big Hurt will be.

Completely random Bill James stat: Troy Glaus led the American League in home runs at home (25).

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Foul pops and other observations: A once-great franchise slogs through another year of mediocrity and irrelevance . . . Wishy-washy and meddlesome owner Peter Angelos was somehow convinced to spend $42.4 million dollars renovating the bullpen. Unfortunately, each new reliever arrives at Camden Yards with a question mark next to his name, so this new bullpen is unlikely to draw comparisons to the '02 Angels . . . Chad Bradford couldn't handle the AL East gauntlet during his stint with the Sox in '05, Danys Baez had a 4.53 ERA in the National League last season, Scott Williamson seems to have Tommy John surgery every other season, and lefty specialist Jamie Walker allowed a Wasdinesque eight homers in 48 innings in '06 . . . The starting pitching isn't deep (see: Jaret Wright, third starter), but Opening Day starter Erik Bedard might have the best repertoire of any AL lefty not currently employed in Minnesota. He could win 18 . . . I'm skeptical that Daniel Cabrera will ever put it together. Mechanical problems are the bane of tall pitchers, and the 6-foot-8 inch Cabrera's command often goes on the fritz without warning . . . Miguel Tejada quietly batted a career-best .330 last season, with 24 homers and 100 RBIs, and he's living up the Orioles' legacy of dependable shortstops: he hasn't missed a game since 2000 . . . Kevin Millar had two more homers and eight fewer RBIs than the man who bumped him out of Boston, Kevin Youkilis. And he did it in 139 fewer at-bats . . . Aubrey Huff's home run and RBI totals have decreased three straight years, so I'm thinking he might not be up to the task of protecting Tejada . . . I was hardly shocked to see Brian Roberts's name mentioned in the Jason Grimsley case. He hit more homers in 2005 than he did in the first four seasons of his career combined, and he looks nothing like the Pedroia-sized singles hitter who first arrived in Baltimore in 2001.

Breakthrough player: Nick Markakis. He's a .310-25-95 season waiting to happen. The kid can rake.

Breakdown player: Melvin Mora. The 35-year-old dropped to 16 homers last year after hitting 27 in each of the previous two seasons.

Completely random Bill James stat: Cabrera led the AL in wild pitches (17) and walks (104).

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
Foul pops and other observations: It was tempting to pick them ahead of Baltimore due to their potent young offense, but they just don't have the pitching beyond ace Scott Kazmir . . . Despite their need (desperation?) for lively arms, GM Andrew Friedman was wise in not fulfilling the winter rumor and dealing Carl Crawford to Anaheim for Ervin Santana. Crawford is already among the elite players in the AL, he's only 24, and his home run totals have increased from 5 to 11 to 15 to 18 in his four full seasons. He's a franchise cornerstone, not a trading chip . . . Where did it go wrong for Jorge Cantu? After knocking in 117 runs two years ago, he finds himself in purgatory with the Durham Bulls while he waits to see if the front office will grant his trade request. There have to be more issues with him than the foot injury that derailed his '06 season . . . Jonny Gomes batted .216 with 20 homers while whiffing 116 times in 385 at-bats last year. Wonder if he's ever heard of Rob Deer . . . Assuming resists the urge to impale any umpires with his Louisville Slugger, Delmon Young will be a five-tool star sooner rather than later, but I'm not sure baseball's premier outfield prospect will hit for power right away. He whacked just 8 homers in 342 at-bats at Durham last season . . . With Young, Elijah Dukes, and B.J. Upton, the D-Rays seem to have cornered the market on prospects who are as troubled as they are talented. Wouldn't it be something if Josh Hamilton, given a second (or third . . . or fourth . . .) chance in Cincinnati, ends up being better than all of them?

Breakthrough player: Kazmir. This is the year he dominates everyone else the way he does the Red Sox.

Breakdown player: Rocco Baldelli. Injuries will continue to prevent the pride of Rhode Island from living up to his immense natural ability.

Completely random Bill James stat: Shawn Camp was second in the AL in relief wins with 7, trailing only Seattle's Julio Mateo.

And yet Aaron Sele is nowhere to be found

For no other reason than because we're seriously jonesing for some baseball right about now, we offer you this: a vaguely defined, completely subjective, semi-Rotisserie-oriented list of . . .

TEN PLAYERS WE LIKE IN '07


Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: Coming off excellent back-to-back seasons in Cleveland, he got off to a fast start in his first season with the Sox . . . then busted his finger, came back too soon, tried to do too much, struggled mightily, then busted the danged digit again. He's entering his prime at age 27, and with less pressure (Johnny who?) and less responsibility (he'll likely bat 7th or 8th), we're expecting Year 2 to be his Boston breakthrough.

Gary Sheffield, OF, Tigers: He's playing for a manager he respects, he's got a fat new contract, and he's motivated to stick it to a former employer, in this case Joe Torre and the Yankees. Ask me, that's long been the recipe for a monster season from Chris House's sparring partner.

Ryan Shealy, 1B-DH, Royals: There's a reason the Red Sox have always coveted him - he can rake. He'll club 30 homers if the Royals give him 500 at-bats.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners: The phenom known as King Felix seemed weighed down with all the Doc Gooden-in-'84 comparisons entering last season . . . and he was weighed down further, so to speak, by a conditioning regimen that consisted of sleeping, engulfing Doritos, and watching TV. But he reportedly will report to spring training in fantastic shape, and if you've seen him pitch, you know he has the best stuff of any big-league pitcher not currently employed by the Minnesota Twins. And he's only 20. The sky remains the limit.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians: He's 24 and stacked up .292-24-78 numbers in '05. So Omar Vizquel's successor can't possibly be as bad as he looked at the plate (.257-13-68) and the field (16 errors, Merloni-like range) last season . . . can he?

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: While your fantasy league homies slobber (justifiably) over future batting champion Howie Kendrick, it's this young, offensively gifted AL second baseman who might wind up being the draft-day bargain at second base.


Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: Call it hyperbole, but after watching him hit .342 with 15 homers at age 23 - and scaring the hell out of me every time he came up in a key situation against the Sox - I'm convinced he's going to be a lefthanded-hitting Paul Molitor. He may want to reconsider his wardrobe choices, however. Jeter sure does make his double-play partners wear some curious outfits.

Brad Hawpe, OF, Rockies: Given the unlikely ascension to fantasy superstardom of Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins the past two seasons, we feel obligated to have at least one Coors Field hitter on this list, and the 26-year-old quietly put up .293-22-84 numbers last season.

Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox: Provided new pitching coach John Farrell can drill through the sediment around his thick skull.

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: Okay, so he was really a sleeper last year . . . but man, did anyone realize that the 28-year-old Oakland discard led the National League in strikeouts, and tied Derek Lowe among others for the league lead in wins? Talk about a quietly brilliant season.

. . . AND ONE WE DON'T

Trot Nixon, OF/Gimp, Cleveland: Nick Cafardo tells us Captain Dirty Cap "worked out harder this offseason that he has in many years." Well then, I'm convinced. Ol' No. 7 is absolutely poised for a monster comeba . . . whoa, wait a minute. Pardon my naivete, but I was under the impression real Dirt Dogs always kept in shape. You mean the back injury he got while driving was the result of him having a midsection that looked more like a keg than a six-pack? On second thought, good riddance, slug.

Schadenfreude, baby

A few quick notes on the Yankees' shameful demise while suddenly feeling a hell of a lot better about the state of the Red Sox . . .

• Repeat after me: Alex Rodriguez, shortstop, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He simply has to go. It is of course not entirely his fault for what happened here, but he is the bat-strangling poster boy for the Yankees' postseason failings since Game 3 of the '04 ALCS, and it's readily apparent that his physical ability will continue to be overwhelmed by his mental weakness and insecurity so long as he's in New York. He's talking a good game as always and saying he won't go unless it's made clear to him that he's no longer wanted by the Yankees. Don't worry, Slappy. Soon enough, it will be.

• Regarding A-Rod, I'm pretty sure the following is the best-written paragraph you will ever read on this site:

The sheer fact that he takes up too much of the air, suffocating this franchise, himself, with the grandness of his burden, the monumental nature of his frailties, his insecurities, is enough reason for the Yankees to find a trade for him this winter. Even if A-Rod ever produces again in October, it is no longer worth the soap opera that comes with him getting there.

It comes from Adrian Wojnarowski's column in the Bergen Record this morning, and I recommend it to Sox fans and Yankees fans alike. It's fantastically well-reasoned for a deadline piece, and there's enough venom to appease the most bloodthirsty New Yawkah today.

• It's hard to pin any of this on Teflon Jeter, who at least looks like he sincerely gives a damn and always plays his ass off 'til the last drop . . . but at some point, doesn't all the talk about the "businesslike" clubhouse and the 25 players, 25 private planes mentality reflect a negative light on the Yankees' captain? Rather than unifying this team, in tough times he always seems to go out of his way to make the point that this is a "different group" than the 4-time champs, almost as if he's disingenuously distancing himself from the mess. He's a wonderful player, but the more I see, the more I believe his leadership is entirely by example - at best.

• Wonder how many Yankee fans realize the Tigers acquired Jeremy Bonderman in a three-way deal that sent 2003 World Series goat Jeff Spicoli-Weaver to New York.

• As great as Robinson Cano can be at the plate, he plays second base with Mark Loretta's range and half the effort.

• He can beat a cameraman to death with his tripod for all I care. After what Kenny Rogers did in Game 3 - namely, pitched the Game Of His Life when no one thought he'd do it - he's all right in my book from here on out. And somewhere in the darkness/the gambler, he broke even . . .

• By my estimation, Randy Johnson's Game 3 stinkfest made Barry Zito an extra $5 million per year.

• Let's make this clear right now: I DO NOT want Gary Sheffield calling Fenway Park home next season, particularly if its as Manny Ramirez's alleged replacement. He's 38, he's indifferent, he's a mean-spirited pain in the ass, and he's coming off a major injury to his greatest asset as a player, his wrists. No. Thanks.

• Andy Phillips, Yankees spokesman. Somehow, that seems appropriate.

• The fallout from this might actually include the Yankees management finally realizing that collecting every soulless All-Star available is not the best way to construct a team, that maybe you're better off staying the course with the enthusiasm of Melky Cabrera than splurging on an overpriced Bobby Abreu just because you can afford it. Bringing in Johnny Damon seemed to boost their chemistry, but it's readily apparent now that they've got a long way to go to even approach the collegial atmosphere of the Tigers, let alone the joyous idiocy of the '04 Sox. Maybe the Orioles will have mercy and trade them Millar.

• That said, I fully expect the ultimate soulless All-Star, Barry Bonds, to be the Yankees' DH next season. Georgie-Porgie won't be able to resist pimping the Asterisked Chase For 755 on the YES Network.

• There's no truth to the rumor that Torre still has Scott Proctor warming up in the bullpen, you know, just in case.

• There are few things that make my wee-hours, hour-plus commute home from Boston than listening to WFAN after a Yankees gag-job. "Vito from His Mother's Bomb Shelter, you're on with Tony Page . . . "

• Aw, c'mon, Sterling, one more time, just for the sport of it: "Groundball to second . . . Polanco has it, throws to first . . . ballgame over . . . series over . . . THAAAAAAAA YANKEES LOSE!!! THAAAAAAAAAA YANKEES LOSE!!!!"

• As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


Introducing the likely manager of the 2007 New York Yankees . . . and what the hell, let's take a moment to note that Piniella is an A-Rod fan, while Mr. Torre is a Jeter guy. Will the fun never end? . . .

Stream of semi-consciousness

First, a disclaimer: Thanks to a late night at the office and two hooting night-owl children, I got about two hours' sleep last night. Then, a postcard-perfect autumn Maine morning coerced me into going out for a 6-mile run when I should have been napping away and dreaming vividly of Crisco-wrestling Jenna Fisch . . . um, so anyway, my point is this: I'm a bigger mess than usual tonight, but after taking in a decent chunk of all three of today's games, I'm itching to crank out a baseball notebook. I'll leave it up to you to determine if any of it makes sense.


Frank Thomas's comeback is a cool story, and hopefully it jogs some memories about how historically excellent he was in his heyday. Consider: In 113 games in the strike-shortened 1994 season, the Big Hurt hit 38 homers in 399 at-bats, scored 106 runs, drove in 101, and walked 109 times with just 61 strikeouts. He batted .353, reached base at a .487 clip, and slugged - get this - .729 - while winning his second straight MVP award. Thomas was perhaps THE dominant hitter of his era, did it without the suspicion of steroids hanging over his head (unlike Mr. Bonds, this dude was huge as a freakin' embryo), and deserves to be in the Hall of Fame five years after he walks away. Yeah, he's one-dimensional . . . but man, what a dimension.

The Yankees' lineup is stacked . . . but I'm not sure it's on the level of the '27 Yankees (or even the '03-'04 Red Sox), as the breathless national media twits are climbing over each other to tell us. A-Rod is a mess, Matsui and Sheffield are rusty, Damon (streaky as hell during his Sox postseasons) and Giambi have been scuffling . . . , ah, you know what? The hell with it. It's the third inning of Tigers-Yankees as I write this. Damon and Jeter just singled, Abreu doubled them home, Sheffield singled Abreu in, HGHiambi homered, and Gehrig and Ruth stepped out of monument park and walloped back to back homers. They could put up 10 runs this inning without blinking. Excuse me while I change the channel.

The Baseball Prospectus-types will tell you that Chien-Ming Wang's breakthrough 19-win season is a flat-out fluke. Because he's a successful starting pitcher who strikes no one out, the analysts who study such things warn us that he's a very likely candidate to collapse into 5.00-ERA mediocrity next season. While I am partial to the benefits of a strikeout pitcher, I don't buy the lack of Ks as a red flag in Wang's case. I believe Wang is a rare exception, a starter will be consistently effective despite constantly pitching to contact. I mean, the guy can throw in the mid-90s. It's just that his sinker is so effective (think D-Lowe's with more sizzle) that the logical approach is to throw it again and again for grounder after grounder, strikeouts (and wear and tear on the arm) be damned.

Oh, how I wanted to bust on my good buddy and chief antagonist Duckler, a certified Yankees lunatic, when he confessed the other day he thinks Robinson Cano is the second-best pure hitter in the American League. (I didn't ask who was first in his mind, but knowing him, he's got Melky Cabrera atop the charts.) But as I considered it further, I realized who it is the sweet-swinging Cano reminds me of at the plate: a young Roberto Alomar. And there's a dose of Rod Carew in that swing, too, though the Yankees' second-year second baseman already has more pop. It goes without saying that when a Sox fan is grouping him in with company as exclusive as a Hall of Famer and a Hall of Fame lock, it's tough to mock a Yankee fan for seeing what you see. The kid is something special.

Those who think Miguel Tejada and Gary Sheffield would be more than adequate replacements for Manny need to hop on Google and do a little research. Not only are they inferior to Manny offensively, but both would arrive at Logan with a ton of baggage. Now, if the Sox want to bring in one or the other to fill that vacant No. 5 hole and complement Manny and Papi . . . well, that is worth considering.

When all is said and done in this Jason Grimsley bleepstorm, Roger Clemens is going to wish he retired three retirements ago, and I write that well aware that the L.A. Times may have a lawsuit on their hands. Power pitchers don't get stronger and faster in their 40s. They just don't. Roger did, and for that, fairly or not, he will never be above suspicion.

So with the sad but unsurprising news that his shoulder is mincemeat, Pedro seems destined to re-enact the demise of his brother's career - Ramon Martinez blew out his rotator cuff at age 30, and Sox fans can attest he never resembled his old self. So chalk one up for Theo and the Trio: they were justified in their decision not to give him four years. Hell, the way it looks now, two might have been too many.

Kinda weird, isn't it, watching the Sox-free playoffs? It's less stressful for sure, watching the games as a pure fan without a passionate rooting interest. Wait . . . what's that? Yeah, all right, you're right . . . it sucks. It's never fun when the party goes on without you. Here's hoping for some October angst next year.

My AL MVP ballot, reconsidered: 1) Joe Mauer: He won the batting title, plays sport's toughest position brilliantly, and dates Miss USA. That's an MVP, folks. 2) Jetes: Though 14 homers is feeble for an MVP and I'm fairly certain the Yankees would be in the postseason even if he had been hurt rather than, say, Sheffield, he did have a sensational season by most any statistical measure, and delivered his usual share of daggers in crucial situations. 3) Papi: If only the team didn't disintegrate around him.

With Pedro a somber spectator and 73-year-old El Duque suddenly knocked out with a leg problem, the Mets might want to consider bailing out Dwight Gooden to pitch Game 2. Glavine and Trachsel aren't up for the challenge of making that sick Subway Series fantasy a reality.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


I've never been much of a Tommy Lasorda guy - it's well known that his public persona is considerably less vulgar than the way he carries himself when the cameras are off - but I have to admit, I dig his "Everyone to the TV!" commercials for the playoffs. Especially the one that makes a fool of that Yankees' college chick.

Questionable: Owens (hand, overdose)

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free sniveling whines for you . . .


1. So rather than being a desperate man's cry for help, it appears today's T.O. Suicide Watch was just one more melodramatic episode in the tragicomedy known as Terrell Owens's life. I trust there's more truth in his words than in the police report, especially since he was back at work and seemingly in good spirits yesterday. Still, I'm left with a couple of questions beyond the obvious one: What the hell was he thinking?: 1) During the day-long Very Special Sports Center, why wouldn't it have been appropriate if NFL expert and Friend of T.O. Michael Irvin was referred to as a "crack reporter"? 2) When T.O.'s inept publicist made reference to "a man of his statue," that was some sort of obtuse reference to Drew Bledsoe, right? 3) Do you think Bill Parcells ever thinks to himself, "Tuna, why can't The Player just grow the hell up and be responsible for himself? Man, how much easier would this job be if only Terrell could be more like Terry Glenn."

2. You know I've been counting down the innings until Jerry Trupiano is WAY BACK . . . WAY BACK . . . GONE!, but after 13 years with Red Sox, the man deserves better than finding out that his contract won't be renewed by the sludge-stirrers at the Inside Freakin' Track. And if Glenn Geffner is his replacement . . . well, let's just say I'm skeptical. With his P.R./House Organ background, I'm wondering if he'll spend more time pushing Red Sox Nation Membership cards then telling us what's happening on the field. I want Trupe gone . . . but it shouldn't be too much to ask to have him replaced by someone better.

3. I wonder if any of the teammates who were so heroic in questioning the severity of Matt Clement's injuries are the same ones who are ripping Manny under the cloak of anonymity. It's funny, whenever I see an unattributed quote from one teammate questioning another's toughness, I seem to recall Curt Schilling labeling Scott Williamson a ----- for not pitching through pain, only to look like a complete jackass when Williamson needed Tommy John surgery. You'd think they'd learn.


4. Things I never thought I'd write, Chapter 86, Vol. 1918: The Red Sox would have been better off signing Derek Lowe after the 2004 season than Pedro Martinez. D-Lowe has 16 wins, including a huge one last night that kept L.A. a game back in the NL West and a game up in the wild card. Lately, he's been an ace . . . something you haven't been able to say about Pedro for some time now. After last night's 2 2/3-inning, 7-run debacle, I'm beginning to fear the end is near for the best pitcher I've ever had the privilege of watching. That wasn't Pedro last night; that was John Burkett.

5. Do I think Tom Brady is injured? Let's put it this way: You're going to turn on the TV at 1:05 one of these Sundays only to be blindsided by the sight of Matt Cassel lining up over center. Brady looks frustrated, he has little zip and none of his customary touch on many of his throws, and the Pats are bringing in the likes of Vinny Testaverde and Tommy Maddox for clandestine workouts. You do the math.

6. Not that I'm jealous, but the Yankees batted future batting champion Robinson Cano ninth last night. He'd hit either third or fourth for the current skeleton-crew version of the Sox, depending upon Manny's health/whims that particular day. But the point is this: Theo has a long winter's worth of work to do if he intends on bringing down the Empire again anytime soon. The gap, since Oct. 2004, has widened, and not in the way we envisioned.

7. It's not officially football season in New England until Randall Gay is on injured reserve with what you were sure was a minor injury.

8. Alex Gonzalez wants a three-year deal? Thanks for all the Web Gems and good luck wherever the road may lead you, slick, but for that kind of commitment we're looking for a shortstop who can make all the plays and avoid those gruesome six-week stretches of being an automatic out. Whatever happened to that Cabrera cat, anyway?

9. It's no exaggeration to suggest that Albert Pujols saved the Cardinals' season last night. Which I suppose means Tony La Russa will cling for one more year to his fraudulent genius label rather than be remembered as the modern day Gene Mauch, overseer of one of the biggest gag jobs in baseball history. Bummer. Maybe Tony Big Brain will get his comeuppance next year.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:


The Red Sox led the league in runs scored for the first three seasons of Papa Jack's reign, and now his job is supposedly in jeopardy after one hiccup of a lost season? I don't like it, and I don't think Papi will either. Can you say scapegoat?

Nine innings: 06.06.06

Playing nine innings while wondering if Jason Giambi is really that sweaty, or if it's just the cream and clear burning off . . .


1. You'll be besieged with lots of theories in the coming days about why Josh Beckett is getting slaughtered, and some will even be valid. His fastball is straight. They're sitting on the heater because he can't get his curve over. His command is spotty. He's leaving the ball up and over the plate. His pitching pattern is predictable.

Well, I've got a theory of my own (or at least of the minority) and I'm confident it will eventually prove the correct one:

The batters know what he's throwing before he throws it.

Yep, he's tipping pitches.

Frankly, there is no other logical explanation for what's happening here. A pitcher of his ability and velocity should not be getting hit like this. His arm is sound by all accounds. His stuff is elite, if inconsistent. The fastball that Giambi hit all the way to New Jersey was clocked at 97; the pitch Andy Phillips blasted came in at 96.

Now, there's no shame in getting taken deep by Troy Glaus or Vernon Wells or a re-swollen Giambi; they get paid the big bucks to hit home runs, and sometimes you just have to tip your cap to them. They are among the few men on the planet who can hit a 97 mph fastball even when they don't know it's coming.

But Andy Phillips is not among those few, and when the likes of him, Ben Broussard and Russ Adams are confidently teeing off on him, when you've allowed a career-high in home runs in the first week of June, when Miguel Freakin' Cairo is taking a fastball on the outer half of the plate and pulling it to left, something fishy is up.

The batters know what's coming. They do. And as a quick Google search revealed, it wouldn't be the first time. This is from Beckett's rookie season, in '02:

Beckett will take the mound again today at Philadelphia, hoping to show that the worst drubbing of his brief career last week against Cincinnati was a fluke. He retired just three batters and gave up eight hits and seven runs, which hiked his ERA from 2.90 to 4.09.

"They were hitting it like they knew what was coming," Beckett said.

That might explain the performance. Recurring blisters on the middle finger of his pitching hand have forced Beckett to alter his grip, perhaps causing him to inadvertently indicate what kind of pitch he's about to throw.

Cincinnati slugger Adam Dunn said Beckett positioned his right hand in his glove differently when he was about to throw a curve. Other Reds hitters said they didn't notice the rookie tipping any pitches, but Marlins manager Jeff Torborg and pitching coach Brad Arnsberg were suspicious.

"It seemed like they knew something," Torborg said. "I stood there that night wondering. They hit everything he threw, including a couple of curveballs inside that they should have been fooled on."

Former major league catcher Jim Leyritz stopped by the Marlins' clubhouse last week to tell Arnsberg that Beckett positioned his glove one way before throwing a fastball and another way for a curve.

Arnsberg studied game video for over an hour, trying to spot such disparities.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it? For what it's worth, the Red Sox have dismissed the notion, but there are couple of names in that story that raised my eyebrows. The first is Brad Arnsberg, Beckett's pitching coach during his time in Florida, who is currently . . . the pitching coach for the Blue Jays. You're telling me he hasn't tipped off the Blue Jays' hitters to some giveaway in Beckett's deliver, the way he grips the ball in the glove, something, that gives the hitter the enormous advantage of knowing what pitch is coming? Arnsberg knows the quirks of Beckett's delivery better than anyone with the exception of the pitcher himself. Of course he's spilled the secrets.

The other name that caught my eye in that story was Jim Leyritz. I'm sure you've seen him sitting behind home plate during the recent Sox games in the Bronx, wearing the gaudy leather jacket with the logos of every major league team. He works for MLB.com now, but his loyalties are with the Yankees, he loathes the Sox (since Jason Varitek took his job) and I wouldn't be surprised if he's shared some knowledge with the Dark Side.

Go ahead, call me a conspiracy theorist if you will, but the signal in my tinfoil hat tells me Arnsberg, Leyritz, and apparently just about everyone else in the AL have found a tell in Josh Beckett's delivery.

Al Nipper, Terry Francona and the Red Sox damn well had better get in on the secret.


2. I wish David Pauley had that first big-league victory to show for his fine performance under difficult circumstances tonight. But at least he made it apparent why the Sox brought him up in the first place: While he may be inexperienced (this was the 22-year-old's second start above Double A) and his curveball/changeup repertoire isn't going to wow the guys with the radar guns, Pauley receives high marks from the Sox front office for his composure and competitiveness, and they believed he could handle the bright lights of the Bronx better than certain, more touted prospects. And he did. Best of all, he silenced those shrill numbskulls who derided Pauley after his rough debut against the Jays. The kid may not ever be a major-league ace, but on this night, he showed he belonged.

3. If we didn't realize that Mike Timlin is the unsung hero of the entire ballclub, we sure do now. Seeing Rudy Seanez come into a tie game with the bases loaded and realizing there really was no better alternative tends to have that effect on you.


4. Maybe it's because Yankees fans are insecure and desperate for affirmation, understandable enough given that most of them look like Turtle from "Entourage" (the women included) or Bobby Baccala from the "Sopranos" (wait a minute - that is Bobby Baccala). But man, aren't the Bronx Faithful getting a little carried away with their cloying demand for a curtain call after pretty much every semi-meaningful home run> I thought the second-inning hat-tips by Phillips and (H)G(H)iambi were lame Monday night, but last night's Bernie Williams lovefest after he hit a solo homer in the fifth inning to tie the game at 1 was even cheesier and more than a little pathetic. What's next, a standing O for A-Rod after he homers in the ninth to cut a deficit to 12-3? You'd think Yankee fans would realize that a curtain call is the way to salute those who have delivered in the biggest moments - a Reggie Jackson three-homer World Series game, a David Cone perfecto, Jeter's flip to get the Lesser of the Giambis. Then again, it's been a while since they've won a championship, from what I hear. Guess they've lowered their standards.

5. Loyalty is a trait you'd treasure in a friend, but for a baseball manager it can be a character flaw. I think Francona is a heck of a manager, but I'm convinced he cost the Red Sox three or four ballgames last season by playing Kevin Millar over Kevin Youkilis long after it became clear that Mr. Cowboy Up wasn't going to hit. He played Millar out of loyalty, and to a lesser extent, he's currently making a similar costly mistake by batting Jason Varitek sixth. Varitek, who has struggled at the plate for almost 3/4ths of a full season now, has no business being that high in the lineup, not with Youkilis and Mike Lowell tearing it up. I suspect the injury Varitek had during the World Baseball Classic is still bothering him, and you have to give him credit for gutting through it, but he has been a complete mess at the plate for most of this season. Francona needs to quit protecting One Of His Guys and move him south in the order until his bat is useful again.

6. The "Baseball America" junkies have long told (assured?) us that the Yankees farm system is barren and neglected, and certainly every time a mummy such as Scott Erickson or Terrence Long lumbers north from Columbus, that perception is enhanced. But Brian Cashman and the rest of Steinbrenner's minions, lackeys and whipping boys deserve credit for putting faith in players that weren't considered supreme prospects, but who certainly look like able major leagues now. Robinson Cano received mixed reviews as a farmhand, but he's done nothing but hit since he arrived in New York, and he looks like a future star and Sox tormenter at second base. Chien-Ming Wang has a Derek Lowe sinker, a sneaky fastball, and poise in abundance. And while Melky Cabrera looked overmatched during his recall last season, he belongs now. His catch to rob Manny Ramirez of a homer in the eighth last night is one of the best Web Gems we will see all season, and his heady and alert baserunning in the first inning Monday stole the game's first run, and more importantly, earned a coveted fist pump from Captain Derek J. Intangibles.


7. Our obligatory NFL note: Yes, Bethel Johnson was a bust of a second-round pick, a slightly faster but just as clueless version of Tony Simmons. But for a player whose Patriots legacy is one of Unfulfilled Promise, he sure came up with his share of huge plays, as documented by my Globe teammate Mike Reiss in a May story:

Among Johnson's most notable plays with the Patriots are two kickoff returns for touchdowns -- a 92-yarder against the Colts in 2003 at the end of the first half, and a 93-yarder in 2004 against the Browns on the opening play of the game. He also had a big catch against the Seahawks in 2004 -- a 48-yarder on third and 7 late in the fourth quarter to help the Patriots seal a victory. Two other big offensive plays for Johnson were a 41-yard touchdown catch to give the Patriots a 7-0 lead over the Titans (and ultimately a 17-14 win) in the 2003 Divisional playoffs, and a 55-yard touchdown reception in Atlanta in 2005.

I also recall Johnson reversing field and gaining a crucial late first down in that Titans playoff game in '03. Not a bad personal highlight reel for a player who never really put it together. Makes you wonder what he could be if he ever stumbles upon a clue, though if he couldn't do it playing with Tom Brady, it's probably not going to happen.

8. If Jack Welch is the "Voice of the Fan," then I'm the CEO of a Fortune 500 company. Cripes, he's been popping up on the postgame show more than The Eck recently.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



Here's a frightening thought appropriate for 6/6/06: What if Al Nipper was a better pitcher than he is a pitching coach? (Shudder.)