TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted, Spring Training Preview Capsules: NL East

(Third in a six-part series, teams listed in order of predicted finish.)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Foul tips and other observations: Jimmy Rollins is right - the Phillies are the team to beat in the East . . . Reasons? Start with the right side of the infield. Reigning MVP Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley combined for 90 homers and 251 RBIs . . . And with the acquisition of Freddy Garcia, the starting rotation is deeper than the Mets', though the Phillies are counting on Brett Myers to finally pitch to the level of his stuff . . .Pat Burrell is a favorite target of the Philly jackals for his strikeouts and supposed lackadaisical attitude, but his numbers (29 homers, .890 OPS) suggest he's a very valuable offensive player . . . You know athletes live in a different world than we do when a mediocrity like Jon Lieber can roll into spring training in a $211,000 truck . . . Definition of a late bloomer: Jamie Moyer didn't win more than 13 games in a season until he was 34, yet he now has 216 career victories . . . Admit it: You had no idea Rollins hit 25 homers last year.

Breakthrough player: Cole Hamels. The cocky lefty already has one of the best changeups around.

Breakdown player: Flash Gordon. Actually, I'm still stunned his elbow survived Joe Torre.

Completely random Bill James stat: How's this for a balance of power? Howard led the NL in home runs on the road (29) and at home (29).

NEW YORK METS
Foul tips and other observations: The lineup could hold its own in the American League, but the starting rotation is straight out of the Atlantic League . . . To put it another way: Both Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele could begin the season in their rotation. Yikes . . . Tom Glavine should cruise to the 10 wins he needs for 300, but asking him to be the ace at age 41 is a little much . . . It'll be fascinating to see how Pedro Martinez adjusts and alters his style after shoulder surgery. His brother Ramon was never close to the same pitcher after his injury, but then he never had the command and guile that Pedro has. I'm guessing he'll still be effective, but I'm glad the Mets are paying the big bucks to find out and not the Red Sox . . How old is Julio Franco? He made his major-league debut more than a year before Jose Reyes was born . . . Reyes gets my vote as the most fun player to watch in the National League, and one can argue that he's already the best shortstop in New York. He's simply electrifying, especially when he's zipping around the bases and turning a routine double into a standup triple.

Breakthrough player: Mike Pelfrey. Either he or Philip Humber is going to have to deliver in the rotation, because Omar's Retreads won't get it done.

Breakdown player: El Duque. He's closer to Franco's age than he admits.

Completely random Bill James stat: Billy Wagner had the fastest average fastball among NL relievers (95.3 MPH).

ATLANTA BRAVES
Foul tips and other observations: Is John Smoltz a Hall of Famer? I say yes. He and the Eck are the only pitchers in history with 150 wins and 150 saves . . . GM John Schuerholz - who will make it to Cooperstown himself someday - did a hell of a job rebuilding the Braves' bullpen, getting Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates for the overrated Adam LaRoche, then absolutely stealing Rafael Soriano from the Mariners for Horacio Ramirez . . . I'm in the minority here, but I think Tim Hudson is going to bounce back big from last year's misery (13-12, 4.86). His stuff is too good and he's too much of a competitor the fade into mediocrity at age 31 . . . Anyone who thinks free-agent-to-be Andruw Jones would be a capable offensive replacement for Manny Ramirez next season isn't paying attention. Jones hits bushels of home runs (41 last year), but he's just a .267 career hitter . . . Joe Mauer gets all the pub for obvious reasons, but Brian McCann (.333-24-93) might just be the best young offensive catcher in baseball.

Breakthrough player: Kelly Johnson. Former outfielder with a .366 career on-base percentage in the minors takes over for Marcus Giles at second base and in the leadoff spot.

Breakdown player: Chipper Jones. He just got hurt reading this. Pulled eyelid, out four to six weeks.

Completely random Bill James stat: Chipper tied Miguel Cabrera for the highest OPS among NL third baseman (.988).


FLORIDA MARLINS
Foul tips and other observations: Fredi Gonzalez has a great reputation but a tough act to follow. Hanley Ramirez and the rest of the Marlins' kids responded well to Joe Girardi's tough love . . . It doesn't help that two of their better young pitchers, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, are already dealing with varying degrees of arm problems . . . The most similar batter to Miguel Cabrera through age 23? Some dude named Aaron. Decent company . . . I'm a Josh Beckett believer, but even his most ardent fan finds it hard not to wish Ramirez were playing shortstop for the Sox. His rookie season (.292, 74 extra-base hits, 51 steals) was nothing less than sensational . . . I think Jason Stokes has been on the Marlins' 40-man roster longer than they've actually existed as a franchise. One of these years, maybe he'll get a big-league at-bat to show for it . . . There isn't a more genuinely likeable and charismatic player in baseball than Dontrelle Willis, which makes his offseason arrest all the more disappointing . . . Who's the closer here? Ricky Nolasco has the stuff and the temperament, but not the experience.

Breakthrough player: Jeremy Hermida. A rookie-of-the-year favorite a year ago, he never got going, but his ability is undeniable.

Breakdown player: Dan Uggla. Struggled mightily in the second half. Did pitchers solve the mystery as to why the D-Backs let him get away in the Rule 5 draft?

Completely random Bill James stat: Willis, who never gets cheated at the plate, had the second-highest OPS among pitchers (.565, trailing Carlos Zambrano's .589).

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Foul tips and other observations: This team is horrible. Any other questions? . . . John Patterson is the ace in the loosest sense of the word: his single-season high in wins is 9, and he won exactly one game last year . . . But he's a sure thing compared to the rest of the rotation. Thirty-something pitchers are in camp vying for the other four rotation spots and bullpen duty, among them Jermaine Van Buren, Tim Redding, and Jerome Williams. What, no Pat Mahomes? . . . Frank Robinson escaped just in time . . . Brian Schneider (.256-4-55) is the catcher the Sox coveted before re-signing Jason Varitek two winters ago. It's fair to say they did the right thing . . . A closer of Chad Cordero's caliber is wasted on a team that won't have too many save opportunities. Here's hoping Theo Epstein is still reminding Jim Bowden of that on a regular basis . . . At least Ryan Zimmerman offers some hope for the future. He might be better than Scott Rolen at third already.

Breakthrough player: Ryan Church. He'll hit (10 homers in 196 at-bats a year ago) if given a fair shake.

Breakdown player: Nick Johnson. Actually, he's already hurt. But when isn't he?

Completely random Bill James stat: Johnson was second in the league in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.29), behind only the Phillies' Burrell (4.32).

Nine innings: 06.21.06

Playing nine innings while pleased that Coco Crisp is finally doing something besides commercials . . .



1. Reaction to Terry Francona's meeting with the young pitchers to tell them they're going to play an important role from here on out: Please, tell me the next meeting is to tell Seanez and Tavarez that they've been sold to the Hiroshima Carp and have 20 minutes to clean out their damn lockers. Seriously, this is great news, perhaps even a decision that we'll look back on as a turning point in the season. Maybe Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen aren't ready to assume crucial set-up roles in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, and maybe they'll take their lumps. But I happen to think they are ready - Delcarmen fastball is still as straight as a javelin, but he's getting his duck-for-cover curve over for strikes, and that's going to make his life much easier. And while I applaud the Sox for being cautious with Hansen, he already has the second-best stuff in the 'pen behind Goose Papelbon, and the immediate needs of the ballclub should supersede any concerns about his youth or inexperience. And besides, they can't really be any worse than Tavarez and Seanez, both of whom seem to pitch well when the score is 8-1 but are Slocumbesque when the outcome is yet to be determined. While I have been anti-Seanez since his first miserable turn with the Sox, I actually still hold out a shred of hope for Tavarez. Sure, he's a headcase, but he's pitched in key roles for good teams for much of his career, and stuff is still quality, Maybe getting into a low-pressure role will help him recover his confidence. But for now it's time to see what the talented kids will do. I felt like the Sox waited too long to bring up Papelbon last year, and an early arrival may have made the difference between winning the AL East and letting the Yankees have their quaint little celebration on the Fenway lawn. Then again, the Sox's history of prudence with their prospects suggests this: they think Delcarmen and Hansen really are ready. And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Jon Lester, whose build and motion remind me so much of Bruce Hurst that I almost expect him to show up at the '86 Sox reunion next week. After watching his start against the Braves, I'm convinced he is ready to give the Sox more this season than either a healthy Matt Clement or David Wells would. Kinda fun having real, live pitching prospects for once, isn't it?

2. Tony La Russa's warning proved prescient. Boston, with all of its intense passion, just wasn't the right place for shy Edgar Renteria. And while he was a major disappointment last season - his 30 freakin' errors simply cannot be justified by his being "uncomfortable" - I thought Jerry Remy made a great point the other night when he said he thought Renteria was the smartest every day player the Sox had last season. Renteria did do a lot of the small things well - hell, the 'EEI banshees are still yowling about his daring bunt hit against the Orioles that preceded a Papi walkoff - and while I'm glad he's gone, I regret that, for whatever reason, we didn't get to see him at his best.

3. And speaking of intelligent players . . . If one person has said to me recently that Alex Gonzalez is the best defender they've ever seen play for the Red Sox, than at least a dozen have. I usually offer token resistance - Pokey Reese is the best defender I've ever seen play for anyone - but I certainly understand where they're coming from. Gonzalez seems to produce the spectacular on a nightly basis - I love how he slides to pick a grounder in the hole, then pops up and guns the runner out all in one motion - and he's rock-steady as well. He's glove absolutely makes up for his feeble (but improving) bat. And while we're praising the middle infielders here, this is all I have to say about Alex Cora: Not only is he the smartest player on the team - he's a natural to manage someday - but he might be the best pure utility player the Sox have ever had.

4. Remnants from the Twins whuppin', which suddenly feels like a long time ago: 1) The Twins took a ration of crap from the experts for passing on USC righty Mark Prior to take a local high school catcher with a lower price tag with the No. 1 overall pick a few years back. Joe Mauer is making them look pretty shrewd now, isn't he? 2) I wish I got to watch Johan Santana on a regular basis. What a treat. Not only can he overpower hitters, but he seems to take a cruel joy in making them look foolish with his ridiculous changeup. He reminds me of Pedro in his heyday. 3) Few Sox fans probably were familiar with him before this series, but trust me in my minor-league obsessed dorkiness when I say there's no shame in getting beaten by Jason Kubel. He was one of the best prospects in baseball two years ago before blowing out his knee, and even after missing an entire season, he remains the second-best prospect in the Minnesota system behind future Cy Young Award winner Francisco Liriano. (Whom someone should do a decent book about, by the way.) We may not have heard much about Kubel before this series, but good health willing, we'll be hearing about him for years to come.


5. Kyle Snyder looks like what the stork might deliver nine months after Bronson Arroyo hooked up with Big Bird.

6. Take away my Old-School Credentials if you must, but National League baseball? You can keep it. Give me the designated hitter, the rudimentary strategies, the mighty sluggers and the cowering pitchers. Just spare me from watching Curt Schilling try to squeeze his XXL head into an XL helmet, or seeing John Smoltz pop up a bunt to stunt one more attempted rally, or suffering all the wannabe La Russas pulling off double switches and using 42 different pitchers to get through the last three innings.

7. Verrry interesting listening to John Smoltz say during a taped interview in the Sunday night Sox-Braves game that he'd be open to a trade if it "were for the betterment of the Braves organization." I've always thought Smoltz was pretty classy (and not in the Ron Burgundy sort of way), but his comments seemed like a disingenuous way of saying, "Get me the hell off this sinking ship." Poor Smoltzie might miss the playoffs for, what, the first time in 16 years? Rough life, man. That said, if he really is available, you better believe he'd be at the top of my Red Sox Wish List, ahead of Dontrelle Willis (if he's healthy at 30, I'll be shocked), Jason Schmidt (if he's healthy in September, I'll be shocked), and pretty much any other available starter. I imagine Yankees fans would say the same thing, which could set up a hell of a bidding war.


8. I'm happy for 'Toine, who earned his championship ring with a disciplined (for him) 11-rebound effort last night. I'm happy for Dwyane Wade, who I do not hesitate to say is one of the finest and most likeable all-around basketball players I've ever seen. And I'm happy for Shaq, if only because he won without the Ego Twins, Kobe and Phil. But anyone who watched these Finals and is not disgusted by how slanted the refereeing was toward the Miami Heat is either A) Pat Riley, B) One of David Stern's scriptwriters. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but when you see Wade falling to the ground without being touched or Shaq plowing into his defender's breadbasket and getting the call again and again and again, and then you remember that Mark Cuban's name is atop Stern's enemies list, well, you have to wonder if the outcome would be different were the court actually level.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



He's 70 years old, and I'm pretty sure he could still kick every one of his players' asses. Especially Soriano's.

Three random 1989 Topps baseball cards

A new Nine Innings column is on deck, likely to be posted late Sunday night. In the meantime, here's a pretty decent three-man rotation for your consideration . . .


He may have lost his slider, but all these years later, damned if The Unit still doesn't have his boyish good looks.


A heartwarming human interest story who became a hell of a pitcher by any measure, the last Yankee I sincerely rooted for, and as Tim Brown's terrific feature in the L.A. Times this morning reminds us, a decent and honest man. If you don't like Jim Abbott, you're hopeless.


Smoltz and the Braves missed the playoffs the season this card came out. They missed them the next year, too. And they haven't missed them since. Astounding. You might think I've taken one too many tomahawk chops to the head, but even considering their recent nosedive, I'm not writing off Smoltz or Atlanta just yet.