TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted, Spring Training Preview Capsules: NL East

(Third in a six-part series, teams listed in order of predicted finish.)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Foul tips and other observations: Jimmy Rollins is right - the Phillies are the team to beat in the East . . . Reasons? Start with the right side of the infield. Reigning MVP Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley combined for 90 homers and 251 RBIs . . . And with the acquisition of Freddy Garcia, the starting rotation is deeper than the Mets', though the Phillies are counting on Brett Myers to finally pitch to the level of his stuff . . .Pat Burrell is a favorite target of the Philly jackals for his strikeouts and supposed lackadaisical attitude, but his numbers (29 homers, .890 OPS) suggest he's a very valuable offensive player . . . You know athletes live in a different world than we do when a mediocrity like Jon Lieber can roll into spring training in a $211,000 truck . . . Definition of a late bloomer: Jamie Moyer didn't win more than 13 games in a season until he was 34, yet he now has 216 career victories . . . Admit it: You had no idea Rollins hit 25 homers last year.

Breakthrough player: Cole Hamels. The cocky lefty already has one of the best changeups around.

Breakdown player: Flash Gordon. Actually, I'm still stunned his elbow survived Joe Torre.

Completely random Bill James stat: How's this for a balance of power? Howard led the NL in home runs on the road (29) and at home (29).

NEW YORK METS
Foul tips and other observations: The lineup could hold its own in the American League, but the starting rotation is straight out of the Atlantic League . . . To put it another way: Both Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele could begin the season in their rotation. Yikes . . . Tom Glavine should cruise to the 10 wins he needs for 300, but asking him to be the ace at age 41 is a little much . . . It'll be fascinating to see how Pedro Martinez adjusts and alters his style after shoulder surgery. His brother Ramon was never close to the same pitcher after his injury, but then he never had the command and guile that Pedro has. I'm guessing he'll still be effective, but I'm glad the Mets are paying the big bucks to find out and not the Red Sox . . How old is Julio Franco? He made his major-league debut more than a year before Jose Reyes was born . . . Reyes gets my vote as the most fun player to watch in the National League, and one can argue that he's already the best shortstop in New York. He's simply electrifying, especially when he's zipping around the bases and turning a routine double into a standup triple.

Breakthrough player: Mike Pelfrey. Either he or Philip Humber is going to have to deliver in the rotation, because Omar's Retreads won't get it done.

Breakdown player: El Duque. He's closer to Franco's age than he admits.

Completely random Bill James stat: Billy Wagner had the fastest average fastball among NL relievers (95.3 MPH).

ATLANTA BRAVES
Foul tips and other observations: Is John Smoltz a Hall of Famer? I say yes. He and the Eck are the only pitchers in history with 150 wins and 150 saves . . . GM John Schuerholz - who will make it to Cooperstown himself someday - did a hell of a job rebuilding the Braves' bullpen, getting Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates for the overrated Adam LaRoche, then absolutely stealing Rafael Soriano from the Mariners for Horacio Ramirez . . . I'm in the minority here, but I think Tim Hudson is going to bounce back big from last year's misery (13-12, 4.86). His stuff is too good and he's too much of a competitor the fade into mediocrity at age 31 . . . Anyone who thinks free-agent-to-be Andruw Jones would be a capable offensive replacement for Manny Ramirez next season isn't paying attention. Jones hits bushels of home runs (41 last year), but he's just a .267 career hitter . . . Joe Mauer gets all the pub for obvious reasons, but Brian McCann (.333-24-93) might just be the best young offensive catcher in baseball.

Breakthrough player: Kelly Johnson. Former outfielder with a .366 career on-base percentage in the minors takes over for Marcus Giles at second base and in the leadoff spot.

Breakdown player: Chipper Jones. He just got hurt reading this. Pulled eyelid, out four to six weeks.

Completely random Bill James stat: Chipper tied Miguel Cabrera for the highest OPS among NL third baseman (.988).


FLORIDA MARLINS
Foul tips and other observations: Fredi Gonzalez has a great reputation but a tough act to follow. Hanley Ramirez and the rest of the Marlins' kids responded well to Joe Girardi's tough love . . . It doesn't help that two of their better young pitchers, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, are already dealing with varying degrees of arm problems . . . The most similar batter to Miguel Cabrera through age 23? Some dude named Aaron. Decent company . . . I'm a Josh Beckett believer, but even his most ardent fan finds it hard not to wish Ramirez were playing shortstop for the Sox. His rookie season (.292, 74 extra-base hits, 51 steals) was nothing less than sensational . . . I think Jason Stokes has been on the Marlins' 40-man roster longer than they've actually existed as a franchise. One of these years, maybe he'll get a big-league at-bat to show for it . . . There isn't a more genuinely likeable and charismatic player in baseball than Dontrelle Willis, which makes his offseason arrest all the more disappointing . . . Who's the closer here? Ricky Nolasco has the stuff and the temperament, but not the experience.

Breakthrough player: Jeremy Hermida. A rookie-of-the-year favorite a year ago, he never got going, but his ability is undeniable.

Breakdown player: Dan Uggla. Struggled mightily in the second half. Did pitchers solve the mystery as to why the D-Backs let him get away in the Rule 5 draft?

Completely random Bill James stat: Willis, who never gets cheated at the plate, had the second-highest OPS among pitchers (.565, trailing Carlos Zambrano's .589).

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Foul tips and other observations: This team is horrible. Any other questions? . . . John Patterson is the ace in the loosest sense of the word: his single-season high in wins is 9, and he won exactly one game last year . . . But he's a sure thing compared to the rest of the rotation. Thirty-something pitchers are in camp vying for the other four rotation spots and bullpen duty, among them Jermaine Van Buren, Tim Redding, and Jerome Williams. What, no Pat Mahomes? . . . Frank Robinson escaped just in time . . . Brian Schneider (.256-4-55) is the catcher the Sox coveted before re-signing Jason Varitek two winters ago. It's fair to say they did the right thing . . . A closer of Chad Cordero's caliber is wasted on a team that won't have too many save opportunities. Here's hoping Theo Epstein is still reminding Jim Bowden of that on a regular basis . . . At least Ryan Zimmerman offers some hope for the future. He might be better than Scott Rolen at third already.

Breakthrough player: Ryan Church. He'll hit (10 homers in 196 at-bats a year ago) if given a fair shake.

Breakdown player: Nick Johnson. Actually, he's already hurt. But when isn't he?

Completely random Bill James stat: Johnson was second in the league in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.29), behind only the Phillies' Burrell (4.32).

Nine innings: 09.04.06

Playing nine innings while finally seeing some familiar names on the lineup card . . .


1. With his spot-on Big Papi imitation tonight, Carlos Pena (of the Haverhill Penas) lived the common dream of New England kids through the ages: to hit a game-winning home run at Fenway Park. He's one of us, and it was chill-inducing to see how much he savored it. Long regarded as one of the nicest people in the game, reacted with genuine joy, as if the moment's realization took him back to the day he first imagined it. "Do you know how many times I'm doing this in my backyard? It's amazing," he said. "I've dreamed of this since I was 12 years old." Now, feel free to accuse me of getting caught up in the good vibes of the night, but I do hope there is a spot on the roster for Pena next season. Frankly, I don't quite understand why he hasn't been able to hold down a big-league gig. He's a terrific first baseman, has a selective eye (though he does strike out a ton), has legitimate power (he walloped 27 homers in '03), and at 28, is still young enough to realize the potential that saw him reach the majors at 23, just two years removed from Northeastern. You'd think he'd at least make a valuable member of the bench. And who doesn't love a local-boy-makes-good story, especially when he's making good for the local team?

2. So the Sox are six back in the wild-card and nine in the division with 24 games left to play. While stranger things have happened, I'd say the more reasonable among us agree that the 2006 playoffs will go on without the Boston Red Sox' participation. And you know what? I find myself feeling strangely fine about this. Maybe it's because of the frightening, life-altering situation young Jon Lester suddenly finds himself in, or maybe it's because of David Ortiz's health scare, or maybe it's something as trivial as a baseball matter, such as the thought that the franchise's future would be better served if Jonathan Papelbon never unleashed another pitch this season. Or maybe it's all of this: the relentless injuries (Ortiz, Ramirez, Nixon, Crisp, Wakefield, Varitek, Pena, Foulke, Wells, Gonzalez, Schilling, Papelbon . . .), poor roster construction (save for Papelbon, the bullpen's performance has been like some bizarre tribute to Heathcliff Slocumb), a lack of suitable depth in the high minors (Kevin Freakin' Jarvis? Mike Burns? Seriously?), and the common-sense realization that this team in perfect health probably wasn't going to star in a sequel to Faith Rewarded. Hey, sometimes it's okay to admit that it's just not your turn.

3. I was going to use this space to rant about Theo's decision to trade David Riske to the White Sox for The Less Famous But Equally Useless Of The Javier Lopezes, but then a kindly SoSHer pointed out to me that the White Sox are extremely reluctant to use Riske in any - I apologize in advance - risky situations, and that he's continuing his career-long trend of pitching well only in low-pressure moments. Then I was going to use this space to rip on Theo for leaving Craig Breslow buried at Pawtucket most of the season while lefty batters continued to make hamburger of the Sox bullpen, but then Breslow went out and pitched exactly like you'd expect someone named Craig Breslow to pitch. So seeing how it's pretty clear that I'm about as clueless at trying to assemble a bullpen as Theo is, let me just say in my wishy-washy way that I wish Cla Meredith were still here, and I'm pretty sure he'd help somewhat seeing that he hasn't given up a run in 20-something innings in the Quadruple A National League, and that maybe this building a bullpen thing ain't so easy after all.

4. A few of us here at TATB headquarters felt like shedding more than just crocodile tears when we heard about the bizarre and tragic death of "Crocodile Hunter" Steve Irwin this morning. While I'm more the indoorsy type, my wife was a longtime fan of his show, and I always enjoyed watching it with her. You just couldn't help but be drawn in by his uncommon abundance of charisma, enthusiasm, and knowledge, and his rapport with all of his creatures was tangible, truly something to behold. It was apparent that he was one of the lucky few whose life's work also happened to be his true passion. He'll be missed, and I feel terrible for his kids.

5. From a fan's standpoint, I was bummed to see Boomer Wells depart. As a rule, I'm pretty much cool with any athlete who has a Body By Hostess, and it was an absolute treat to watch him pitch when his curveball was working and his creaky knees could bear the weight. He was the anti-Clement, a fearless, efficient, strike-throwing machine, and I wonder how this season might have been different had he made 30 starts. But taking bleacher-creature sentiment out of it, I think the Sox made a pretty decent deal, assuming the reports that catcher George Kottaras is the PTBNL are accurate. While he's struggled in his in-season promotion from Double A to Triple A, he's only 23, he was the Padres' No. 2 prospect coming into the season, is said to be solid defensively but for some supposedly correctable mechanical flaws, and earned an intriguing pre-season review from Baseball Prospectus:

The fraternity of former hot catching prospects is fraught with disappointment - ask Matt LeCroy or Toby Hall. Kottaras resembles a young Craig Biggio more than behemoths like LeCroy or Hall, though, and he looks like he's going to be a pretty fair defensive backstop. His 36 doubles and 69 walks point to some promising line-drive power and a good batting eye, traits that will serve him well at higher levels. With just 101 Double-A at-bats on his record, he won't be a factor in the big leagues in 2006. Look for Kottaras in 2007 - Doug Mirabelli is not a long term solution behind the plate.

Little did they know that last line would refer to the Red Sox and not the Padres, huh?

6. And speaking of our favorite plus-size ballplayers, let me say this: If you don't enjoys watching Ryan Howard, a genuine slugger with a veteran's savvy at the plate (his opposite-field power is reee-diculous), then you are either a David Eckstein-lovin', scrappy-white-guy fetishist, a National League pitcher, or someone who so foolishly had him pegged as the next Sam Horn. Hell, I'm the latter, and he might be favorite NL player at the moment.

7. Three quick thoughts on the Yankees: 1) Typical A-Rod, going on a tear once everything of consequence is in the bag. 2) I'm not saying it's fair or right, but Derek Jeter is going to win the AL MVP, the Gold Glove, and the Maybelline Metrosexual of the Year award. 3) How come Johnny Damon's name doesn't come up in this MVP talk? I'm not saying he should win the thing, but after putting up stellar numbers, leading the 5-game annihilation of his former team, filling the gaping hole in center field that was previously occupied by the mummified Bernie Williams, and bringing a sense of fun and relaxation to the tense Yankees clubhouse, shouldn't he at least be in the discussion?

8. Be well, Jon Lester. An entire Nation looks forward to celebrating your next victory, one that has nothing to do with baseball.

9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



Not only did the Sox have to settle for a spilt with the Blue Jays after winning the first two games of the series, but we didn't even get to see John Gibbons punch out one of his players. Talk about a letdown.