TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted, Spring Training Preview Capsules: NL Central

(Second in a six-part series, teams listed in predicted order of finish.)

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Foul tips and other observations: The insufferable Tony La Russa must think his mighty big brain is mightier and bigger than ever after winning the World Series with this mediocre crew . . . I've long thought Jim Edmonds is his generation's Fred Lynn - a five-tool talent who, through injury or indifference, often finds a way to do something to rub fans the wrong way . . . David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy, former partners in grittiness with the Angels, are reunited in the middle of the Cardinals infield. And the Scrappy White Guy Fetishists rejoice . . . You have to give La Russa and Dave Duncan the benefit of the doubt with the decision to move Adam Wainwright from the bullpen to the rotation, but man, he really was a revelation in relief during the postseason . . . Albert Pujols just turned 27. Whether or not you believe that is his actual age, one glance at his baseball-reference.com page tells you he is already entrenched among the all-time greats. Pretty amazing for a player heading into just his sixth season.

Breakthrough player: Anthony Reyes. Just 5-8 with a 5.06 ERA as a rookie, he's got the stuff to seize the No. 2 slot behind Chris Carpenter.

Breakdown player: Scott Rolen. Aging third basemen with a history of back, neck, and shoulder problems don't suddenly turn into Cal Ripken Jr.

Completely random Bill James stat: Pujols led the majors in win shares (37).

HOUSTON ASTROS
Foul tips and other observations: Well, Roger, WE'RE WAITING . . . As is his annual tradition since "retiring" for the first time four years ago, Clemens holds Houston hostage as waits to see which midsummer contender will pay him the most cash for the least amount of work . . . If he does end up selling what's left of his soul back to the Yankees, the Astros are screwed . . . What, you think Jason Jennings and Woody Williams are suitable replacements for Clemens and Andy Pettitte? . . . At least the offense should be improved, with the ever-expanding but highly productive Carlos Lee joining forces with Lance Berkman in the heart of the order . . . Berkman doesn't get enough recognition for his offensive greatness - he hit 45 homers and drove in 136 runs a season ago, and yet you never hear his name mentioned among the best hitters in the game. His most similar player on baseballreference.com: Papi.

Breakthrough player: Luke Scott. Hit .336 with 10 homers in 214 at-bats last season, and should get every opportunity to establish himself as a reliable run producer batting behind Berkman and Lee.

Breakdown player: Mark Loretta. He's 36, and he was all but shedding body parts down the stretch for the Sox last season.

Completely random Bill James stat: Berkman led the NL in runs created per 27 outs (11.5).

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Foul tips and other observations: I bet even Bill Hall is stunned that Bill Hall hit 35 homers last season . . . Derrick Turnbow is the very definition of a heart-attack closer. He blew eight of 32 save opportunities, lost nine games, and posted a ridiculously brutal 6.87 ERA, yet whiffed 69 in 56.3 innings . . . Jeff Suppan and the Brewers are a perfect match, mediocrity meeting mediocrity . . . Didn't realize Tony Gwynn's kid got 70 at-bats with the big club last year. Tony Jr. weighs in at 185 pounds, which means he could fit into his old man's pouch . . . Prince Fielder, however, is listed at 260, so we can file this one under Like Father, Like Son. He's a better pure hitter than his old man ever was, however . . . Who is Kevin "Shrek" Mench to bitch about a possible platoon role? Guess he has a big head figuratively as well as literally.

Breakthrough player: Rickie Weeks: Has the skills to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases a year for the next decade.

Breakdown player: Ben Sheets. Have he and A.J. Burnett ever been seen in the same place?

Completely random Bill James stat: Fielder had the best at-bats-per-homer ratio of any NL player age 26 or younger (1 homer every 20.3 at-bats).

CHICAGO CUBS
Foul tips and other observations: So this is what $300 million buys you these days: Alfonso Soriano ($136 million, much more valuable in fantasy leagues than in real life), Aramis Ramirez ($75 million, a good hitter with a bad reputation), Ted Lilly ($40 million, 59-58 career record), Jason Marquis ($21 million, far and away the worst regular pitcher in the NL last season), Mark DeRosa ($13 million, coming off a career year at age 31), Henry Blanco ($5.255 million, 35-year-old .225 career hitter), Kerry Wood ($1.75 million, now that's actually a worthwhile gamble), Wade Miller ($1.5 million, ditto Wood), Daryle Ward ($1 million, a donut in human form), and Cliff Floyd ($3 million, held together at this point by athletic tape) . . . Ah, well, at least we know Lou Piniella will handle it well when it all falls apart . . . Positives? Carlos Zambrano might be the favorite to win the NL Cy Young award, and Mark Prior certainly has the ability to be a top-notch No. 2 starter, though one has to wonder how the injury-prone classic underachiever will respond to Not-So-Sweet Lou's style . . . Soriano-Derrek Lee-Ramirez is a rather formidable 3-4-5. Too bad they don't get to face Marquis, or they'd really put up some numbers.

Breakthrough player: Zambrano. Yes, he's already a legit ace, but this year he takes it to a truly elite level. He'll parlay 20-plus wins into fat free-agent contract from one of the New York clubs, and Cubs fans will wonder, in between soothing beverages, why Marquis and Lilly got paid and the home-grown hero didn't.

Breakdown player: Wood, Prior . . . take your pick. I hope I'm wrong about both, though. It's a bummer to watch great talent get eroded by injuries.

Completely random Bill James stat: Marquis led the NL in runs allowed, home runs allowed, and not coincidentally, losses.

CINCINNATI REDS
Foul tips and other observations: Glad to see Bronson Arroyo get a fat two-year extension from the Reds. He's earned everything that's come his way in the big leagues; it's easy to forget now, after the popularity he attained in Boston, but it wasn't that long ago that he was DFA'd by the Pirates . . . Can't get over what an excellent season the Aaron Harang had in '06. He tied for the NL lead in wins (16), and led in starts (35), complete games (6), and strikeouts (216). Interestingly, his most similar comp in baseball history is Arroyo . . . I find myself still hoping against hope that Ken Griffey Jr. has one more healthy, monster season in him. That's partially because he was a truly transcendant player at his peak, a genuine joy to watch, and yet was overshadowed by his artificially enhanced peers. Mostly, though, it's because he's a day younger than me, and as long he's not officially over the hill, dammit, neither am I . . . Rich Aurilia, now part of the geezer brigade in San Francisco, quietly had a beast of a season last year, hitting .300 with 23 homers and slugging a league-best .680 against lefties. Someone (Edwin Encarnacion?) will have to pick up the overall slack . . . Rheal Cormier had a 2.44 ERA last season, but whiffed just 19 in 48 innings. Man, being a crapballing lefty reliever sure is a nice gig if you can get it . . . Did I mention Mike Stanton is employed by this team too? No word if Tony Fossas is a non-roster invitee.

Breakthrough player: Homer Bailey. The consensus best pitching prospect in baseball, Philip Hughes included. (And somewhere, a Yankees fan rips off his mustache in violent protest.)

Breakdown player: Griffey. They're sending/The old man home . . .

Completely random Bill James stat: Arroyo led the NL in pitches below 80 MPH with 1,350, nearly 300 more than runner-up Livan Hernandez. So basically, Arroyo is the anti-Beckett.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Foul tips and other observations: I like the Tony Armas signing - he has the arm and the ability, just not much in the way of results. His old man could probably bat fifth on this team, however . . . I'm pretty sure Jim Tracy couldn't tell you the difference between Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, and Paul Maholm. I sure as hell can't . . . Salomon Torres, the NL leader in appearances a year ago, is a baseball survivor - at one point, he retired to take a coaching job with the Gulf Coast League Expos. Seems so long ago that he was the goat of the memorable '93 NL West race . . . I bet the Pirates ultimately regret dealing Mike Gonzalez for Adam LaRoche. Gonzalez didn't blow a save last year, and LaRoche overachieved . . . How is it that Jason Bay was traded three times (once for the legendary Lou Collier) before establishing himself in the big leagues? Had the Expos held on to him and Grady Sizemore, they might still exist.

Breakthrough player: Shane Youman. No relation to Floyd Youmans. But it'd be cool if he was.

Breakdown player: Freddy Sanchez. We're not predicting an injury here, merely a 60-point decline in batting average. He can't be that good, can he?

Completely random Bill James stat: Um, maybe he can. Sanchez was third in the NL in batting with runners in scoring position (.386), trailing only a couple of guys named Bonds (.423) and Pujols (.397). Sanchez also led the league in batting against lefthanded pitchers (.442, and no, that's not a typo).

First and 10: Patriots 35, Packers 0

1. Well, that sure was a reassuring win. In many ways, the 35-0 beat-down of Brett Fav-rah and the Packers was a classic Belichick-era Patriots victory. Whenever their backs have been up against the wall and they face a must-win situation, that's when they've tended to play their very best games. Talk about an immensely valuable characteristic to have. Of course, questions still remain: Why have they been so much better on the road than at the Razor? Are they capable of playing this way against a playoff-caliber team? Is there enough depth in the defensive backfield to shut down a quarterback better than the disinterested Favre? I suppose we'll get all the answers in the coming weeks. But after Sunday, you have to feel encouraged that we're going to like what we learn about this still-resilient team.

2. Tom Brady? Injured? (Scoffs.) That's crazy talk. Man, you must have read that somewhere else. What idiot would suggest such a thing? Oh, all right, to be completely honest, I remain skeptical that he is as healthy as he claims to be. I just can't comprehend that his uncharacteristically inconsistent passing this season is simply the result of a suddenly scattershot arm. He's been so consistent for so long that you have to believe something is wrong when his radar inexplicably goes on the fritz. But if he's going to keep playing as efficiently and effectively as he did this week - now that was the Brady we've been waiting to see - I'll be glad to be proven wrong each and every Sunday, all the way to Miami.

3. It looks like the Patriots don't have much intention of signing him after the season, and he probably hasn't produced enough to justify being a first-round pick in 2002, but I think the Patriots are a better football team when Daniel Graham is healthy and involved. He remains a devastating blocker - ask Julius Peppers about the whupping Graham put on him in the Super Bowl XXXVIII - and while he seems to juggle every catch he makes, he's an effective receiver despite his limited use. Maybe if he can stay healthy for the rest of the season, they'll give more consideration to keeping him around. He's no star, but his value can't be denied.

4. So what was the most ridiculous aspect of the Brett Favre "He'd Play The Game For Free!" experience Sunday? How the NFL's most accomplished drama queen needed a friggin' medical cart to get to the locker room after suffering an owie to his funny bone? How said medical cart/motorcade nearly turned a Patriots player (Ellis Hobbs, I believe) into roadkill as the teams left the field for halftime? Or how CBS - and the affably oblivious Dan Dierdorf in particular - acted as if Favre's absence was some devastating loss to the Packers, when in fact he was an abysmal 5 for 15 for 73 yards and looked as if he couldn't wait for the damn hopeless cause to get over with? He's playing for the streak now (250 and counting), and little else. Back in the day - you know, when he was actually good - I admired Favre for his obvious talent and joy as much as anyone. But those days are long gone, and the he-can-do-no-wrong Jeterification of his accomplishments is little more than a misleading annoyance at this point.

5. We interrupt this football programming to bring you this special report: THE CUBS PAID $136 MILLION FOR ALFONSO (SLIDER IN THE DIRT, STRIKE THREE) SORIANO? HOLY *#*#*!!! YOU HAVE GOT TO BE *$&%&#*&#& KIDDING ME!!! THAT'S INSANITY!!!! We now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

6. Gotta admit, I'm coming around on Reche Caldwell. Sure, I had my gripes about his seemingly slippery hands and inability to get separation, and the dude's Chris Tucker eyes still freak me out. But he deserves nothing but plaudits for his recent steady and reliable play, and of all the new additions to the receiving corps, he seems to have done the most to earn Brady's trust. I'd still rather have David Givens, but Caldwell's doing his best to make the Patriots look good for taking a flyer on him.

7. Among the birthday loot I received today from Mrs. TATB (I'm 29 for the ninth straight year, if you were wondering) was a requested copy of Charlie Pierce's best-seller-to-be on Ol' No. 12 In Your Program, No. 1 In Patriots Fans' Hearts. I have this suspense-killing habit of skimming a book before I actually read it, and during tonight's speed read, the most interesting revelation I found was this: Damon Huard, the third-string quarterback during the 2001 season, earned that Super Bowl ring in far more ways than we ever realized. A close friend of Bledsoe's who shared an insatiable work-ethic with Brady, his deftness at diffusing the tension between his quarterbacking peers proved crucial in keeping the team together. I always thought Huard was a better quarterback than he got credit for - the consensus in Miami was that he should have gotten the job over Jay Fiedler after Dan Marino retired, and he's certainly rescued the Chiefs this season - but I had no idea he was such a good teammate, too.

8. The Tony Romo man-love from the Peter Kings of the world is getting to be a bit much. While the kid is a blast to watch, brought energy to the stagnant offense, and has even helped put some color back in the Tuna's alarmingly pallid face, he's become the recipient of verbal backrubs from the media usually reserved for quarterbacks with the surname Manning. (Or Favre.) What is it Parcells himself once said way back when after one of his young Patriots was the object of the media's overwrought platitudes? Ah, yes: "Let's not put the kid in Canton just yet, fellas." Then again, he was talking about Curtis Martin if I recall correctly, and it's a foregone conclusion that there is a mustard-colored jacked in his future. I'm pretty sure I just contradicted my own point there, so let me reiterate the so-called point: Romo is capable, an upgrade on the calcified Bledsoe for sure, and he's making it fun for Dallas fans again. But the fawning could make this fun story annoying pretty quickly for those who don't sleep beneath a Cowboys blankie at night.


9. As if you need more proof that I fall somewhere between "Damn Fool" and "Tony Kornheiser" in terms of football insight, I have to admit that I wrote a column back in 2001 imploring the Patriots to avoid drafting a certain undersized running back from Texas Christian in the first round. Yeah, I thought LaDainian Tomlinson was a stiff. (And I won't even mention that I wanted them to draft David Terrell or Koren Robinson with that No. 6 pick that was eventually used on Richard Seymour. Hey, I wasn't the only one.) Tomlinson, as he's proved with his record-setting sprint to 102 touchdowns in 89 career games, is of course anything but a stiff. At age 27, he's already among the all-time greats, entirely worthy of the LT nickname, and he's made that shrewd Chargers front office look all the more clever: That vaunted Vick-for-LT-and-Brees blockbuster looks more and more like a heist each time Tomlinson crosses the goal line.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Card:


Huh. I guess I just assumed football broadcasting's answer to Tim McCarver has had that goofy-ass mustache since birth.

Value judgment

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free half-formed thoughts for you . . .

1. Might as well face it, my man Ryan was right: Jeter's winning the MVP. (Fist pump! Smirk! And why not . . . another fist pump!) And you know what? Other than the fact that it gives the Bleacher Buttafuocos and Jeterphiles more reason to prance around in their reflected glory, I've got no problem with it - this season, the Captain's stats actually justify his reputation. He has the second-highest VORP in the league behind Travis Hafner, his production in the clutch is typically dazzling, and you, me, and Timlin know he did his part to shovel dirt on the Sox during that five-game debacle. I'm not really sure why Papi felt the need to diminish his accomplishments - maybe he tried some "Driven" and it gave him a killer rash? While I understand Papi's frustration - Jeter, for all he has done, never has and never will be been burdened to carry an offense the way Papi has - he came across as petty in his criticism, no matter what his tone or the context. If he doesn't regret airing his grievances now, he will by the time this series in New York is over. It's going to get ugly. (For the record, my MVP vote would go to the Twins' exquisite lefty, Johan Santana. There is no one more valuable than him.)

2. So a year ago, Tom Brady puts his money where his mouth is, taking a below-market 6-year, $60-million contract to remain a Patriot, explaining that he's willing to forego the Peyton bucks in order to help keep the core of his team together . . . and then his two favorite receivers say sayonara barely a year later while the team remains roughly $10 million under the cap. And you wonder why this Branch thing was weighing on his mind last week.

3. It's a bummer to see Francisco Liriano shut it down for the season, not only because you never want to see such a charismatic and gifted young pitcher derailed by arm problems, but because I thought his return made the Twins the only legitimate challenger to the Yankees.

4. I suppose it's prudent business for the both the Patriots and the Sox to place a specific value on a player and refuse to exceed that number even if it means losing him, but I can't help but wish they should leave themselves just a bit more flexibility in certain situations. For example, I don't understand why the Red Sox, with their vast resources, were willing to give Johnny Damon $11 million per year, yet were reluctant to go a million or two higher than that. And had the Pats predicted the market better and attempted in good faith and logic to sign David Givens a season or two before he became a free agent, I suspect they'd have him at a much cheaper rate than the Titans ended up paying.

5. You know how it pains me to write these words, but at the moment I have no doubt they will be proven true over the winter: Manny Ramirez has played his final game for the Boston Red Sox. And if the thought of trading him for 75 cents on the dollar pisses me off like this, I can't imagine how Papi will feel when it all goes down. (By the way, is it weird that I find myself almost hoping Manny needs knee surgery just to spite all the WEEI wannabe med students who refuse to consider that he might not be jaking it?)

6. What the Sox should do, of course, is retain Manny then go out and get proven No. 5 hitter with 30-homer potential. (I enjoy the Wily Mo Experience, but he's got a long way to go before he can help anchor a lineup.) So I offer you this suggestion: Alfonso Soriano . . . second base . . . Boston Red Sox. Whaddaya say? I know he's Offermanesque defensively, but he wants to play second again, and I might be willing to sacrifice some glove to get that phenomenal bat in the middle of the Sox' order.

7. Don't tell Mrs. TATB, but I'm pumped and jacked like Trojan Pete that I just led Dwayne Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Joe Johnson and the rest of my Seattle SuperSonics to a 69-13 record on ESPN NBA '05. Hey, did I mention I'm 36, with two kids, a mortgage, and for now, a wife? Yeah, I know, I'll make a note to grow the hell up and re-evaluate my priorities . . . right after my Sonics' playoff run ends.

8. From the Brushes With Fame (If Not Quite Greatness) file: Back in our Concord, N.H. days, TATB logged many turnover-filled hours on the Green St. hoop court with a live-wire named Mike Carri . . . whom you may now know as Mike "Boogie" Malin, the hipster doofus who just connived his way to the $500,000 grand prize on Big Brother All-Stars. We're glad to report he played that game pretty well, too, and in the real world he's much nicer guy than the character he plays on TV.

9. I'm convinced that if Gabe Kapler's involvement with the Sox next season solely consists of sitting to Tom Caron's left during the postgame show, Tito would still find a way to get his dead bat into the lineup twice a week.


10. As for today's Completely Random . . . er, Media Guide Mugshot:


From party-hearty linebacker, to master of the long snap, to sycophantic bully of a co-host, you are a real man of genius, Steve DeOssie.

(And with that I fully expect to get the following message in my email box later today:)

"DID YOU EVER PLAY THE GAME, BLOGGER? HUH? DID YOU? DID YOU EVER PLAY THE GAME!? ALL RIGHT, THEN! DON'T POST GOOFY HEADSHOTS OF ME UNTIL YOU CAN SAY YOU PLAYED THE GAME, BLOGGER!!!"