TATB's Long-Awaited, Half-Assed, Red Sox-Slanted, Spring Training Preview Capsules: NL Central

(Second in a six-part series, teams listed in predicted order of finish.)

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Foul tips and other observations: The insufferable Tony La Russa must think his mighty big brain is mightier and bigger than ever after winning the World Series with this mediocre crew . . . I've long thought Jim Edmonds is his generation's Fred Lynn - a five-tool talent who, through injury or indifference, often finds a way to do something to rub fans the wrong way . . . David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy, former partners in grittiness with the Angels, are reunited in the middle of the Cardinals infield. And the Scrappy White Guy Fetishists rejoice . . . You have to give La Russa and Dave Duncan the benefit of the doubt with the decision to move Adam Wainwright from the bullpen to the rotation, but man, he really was a revelation in relief during the postseason . . . Albert Pujols just turned 27. Whether or not you believe that is his actual age, one glance at his baseball-reference.com page tells you he is already entrenched among the all-time greats. Pretty amazing for a player heading into just his sixth season.

Breakthrough player: Anthony Reyes. Just 5-8 with a 5.06 ERA as a rookie, he's got the stuff to seize the No. 2 slot behind Chris Carpenter.

Breakdown player: Scott Rolen. Aging third basemen with a history of back, neck, and shoulder problems don't suddenly turn into Cal Ripken Jr.

Completely random Bill James stat: Pujols led the majors in win shares (37).

HOUSTON ASTROS
Foul tips and other observations: Well, Roger, WE'RE WAITING . . . As is his annual tradition since "retiring" for the first time four years ago, Clemens holds Houston hostage as waits to see which midsummer contender will pay him the most cash for the least amount of work . . . If he does end up selling what's left of his soul back to the Yankees, the Astros are screwed . . . What, you think Jason Jennings and Woody Williams are suitable replacements for Clemens and Andy Pettitte? . . . At least the offense should be improved, with the ever-expanding but highly productive Carlos Lee joining forces with Lance Berkman in the heart of the order . . . Berkman doesn't get enough recognition for his offensive greatness - he hit 45 homers and drove in 136 runs a season ago, and yet you never hear his name mentioned among the best hitters in the game. His most similar player on baseballreference.com: Papi.

Breakthrough player: Luke Scott. Hit .336 with 10 homers in 214 at-bats last season, and should get every opportunity to establish himself as a reliable run producer batting behind Berkman and Lee.

Breakdown player: Mark Loretta. He's 36, and he was all but shedding body parts down the stretch for the Sox last season.

Completely random Bill James stat: Berkman led the NL in runs created per 27 outs (11.5).

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Foul tips and other observations: I bet even Bill Hall is stunned that Bill Hall hit 35 homers last season . . . Derrick Turnbow is the very definition of a heart-attack closer. He blew eight of 32 save opportunities, lost nine games, and posted a ridiculously brutal 6.87 ERA, yet whiffed 69 in 56.3 innings . . . Jeff Suppan and the Brewers are a perfect match, mediocrity meeting mediocrity . . . Didn't realize Tony Gwynn's kid got 70 at-bats with the big club last year. Tony Jr. weighs in at 185 pounds, which means he could fit into his old man's pouch . . . Prince Fielder, however, is listed at 260, so we can file this one under Like Father, Like Son. He's a better pure hitter than his old man ever was, however . . . Who is Kevin "Shrek" Mench to bitch about a possible platoon role? Guess he has a big head figuratively as well as literally.

Breakthrough player: Rickie Weeks: Has the skills to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases a year for the next decade.

Breakdown player: Ben Sheets. Have he and A.J. Burnett ever been seen in the same place?

Completely random Bill James stat: Fielder had the best at-bats-per-homer ratio of any NL player age 26 or younger (1 homer every 20.3 at-bats).

CHICAGO CUBS
Foul tips and other observations: So this is what $300 million buys you these days: Alfonso Soriano ($136 million, much more valuable in fantasy leagues than in real life), Aramis Ramirez ($75 million, a good hitter with a bad reputation), Ted Lilly ($40 million, 59-58 career record), Jason Marquis ($21 million, far and away the worst regular pitcher in the NL last season), Mark DeRosa ($13 million, coming off a career year at age 31), Henry Blanco ($5.255 million, 35-year-old .225 career hitter), Kerry Wood ($1.75 million, now that's actually a worthwhile gamble), Wade Miller ($1.5 million, ditto Wood), Daryle Ward ($1 million, a donut in human form), and Cliff Floyd ($3 million, held together at this point by athletic tape) . . . Ah, well, at least we know Lou Piniella will handle it well when it all falls apart . . . Positives? Carlos Zambrano might be the favorite to win the NL Cy Young award, and Mark Prior certainly has the ability to be a top-notch No. 2 starter, though one has to wonder how the injury-prone classic underachiever will respond to Not-So-Sweet Lou's style . . . Soriano-Derrek Lee-Ramirez is a rather formidable 3-4-5. Too bad they don't get to face Marquis, or they'd really put up some numbers.

Breakthrough player: Zambrano. Yes, he's already a legit ace, but this year he takes it to a truly elite level. He'll parlay 20-plus wins into fat free-agent contract from one of the New York clubs, and Cubs fans will wonder, in between soothing beverages, why Marquis and Lilly got paid and the home-grown hero didn't.

Breakdown player: Wood, Prior . . . take your pick. I hope I'm wrong about both, though. It's a bummer to watch great talent get eroded by injuries.

Completely random Bill James stat: Marquis led the NL in runs allowed, home runs allowed, and not coincidentally, losses.

CINCINNATI REDS
Foul tips and other observations: Glad to see Bronson Arroyo get a fat two-year extension from the Reds. He's earned everything that's come his way in the big leagues; it's easy to forget now, after the popularity he attained in Boston, but it wasn't that long ago that he was DFA'd by the Pirates . . . Can't get over what an excellent season the Aaron Harang had in '06. He tied for the NL lead in wins (16), and led in starts (35), complete games (6), and strikeouts (216). Interestingly, his most similar comp in baseball history is Arroyo . . . I find myself still hoping against hope that Ken Griffey Jr. has one more healthy, monster season in him. That's partially because he was a truly transcendant player at his peak, a genuine joy to watch, and yet was overshadowed by his artificially enhanced peers. Mostly, though, it's because he's a day younger than me, and as long he's not officially over the hill, dammit, neither am I . . . Rich Aurilia, now part of the geezer brigade in San Francisco, quietly had a beast of a season last year, hitting .300 with 23 homers and slugging a league-best .680 against lefties. Someone (Edwin Encarnacion?) will have to pick up the overall slack . . . Rheal Cormier had a 2.44 ERA last season, but whiffed just 19 in 48 innings. Man, being a crapballing lefty reliever sure is a nice gig if you can get it . . . Did I mention Mike Stanton is employed by this team too? No word if Tony Fossas is a non-roster invitee.

Breakthrough player: Homer Bailey. The consensus best pitching prospect in baseball, Philip Hughes included. (And somewhere, a Yankees fan rips off his mustache in violent protest.)

Breakdown player: Griffey. They're sending/The old man home . . .

Completely random Bill James stat: Arroyo led the NL in pitches below 80 MPH with 1,350, nearly 300 more than runner-up Livan Hernandez. So basically, Arroyo is the anti-Beckett.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Foul tips and other observations: I like the Tony Armas signing - he has the arm and the ability, just not much in the way of results. His old man could probably bat fifth on this team, however . . . I'm pretty sure Jim Tracy couldn't tell you the difference between Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, and Paul Maholm. I sure as hell can't . . . Salomon Torres, the NL leader in appearances a year ago, is a baseball survivor - at one point, he retired to take a coaching job with the Gulf Coast League Expos. Seems so long ago that he was the goat of the memorable '93 NL West race . . . I bet the Pirates ultimately regret dealing Mike Gonzalez for Adam LaRoche. Gonzalez didn't blow a save last year, and LaRoche overachieved . . . How is it that Jason Bay was traded three times (once for the legendary Lou Collier) before establishing himself in the big leagues? Had the Expos held on to him and Grady Sizemore, they might still exist.

Breakthrough player: Shane Youman. No relation to Floyd Youmans. But it'd be cool if he was.

Breakdown player: Freddy Sanchez. We're not predicting an injury here, merely a 60-point decline in batting average. He can't be that good, can he?

Completely random Bill James stat: Um, maybe he can. Sanchez was third in the NL in batting with runners in scoring position (.386), trailing only a couple of guys named Bonds (.423) and Pujols (.397). Sanchez also led the league in batting against lefthanded pitchers (.442, and no, that's not a typo).

Word to ya mutha

Doon-doon-doon doo-doo-doon-doon
Doon-doon-doon doo-doo-doon-doon
All right stop!
Collaborate and listen!
TATB's back with a brand-new edition . . .

(See, this is what happens when I can't think of an intro to a notes column - I go and get all Robbie Van Winkle on you and completely blow my street cred. I suppose Suge Knight will be dangling me over a balcony at any moment. What say we pretend this incident never happened and get on with the column, huh? Oh, right . . . and enjoy having that atrocity of a "song" in your head for the rest of the day. You're welcome! Doon-doon-doon-doo-doo-doon-doon . . .)

• If there's been an under-reported story during this Sox season, it's regarding Jonathan Papelbon's complete and total dominance as a closer. Watching him make the ninth inning his own with his unhittable rising fastball and suddenly nasty splitter reminds me of watching Goose Gossage in his prime. I mean, Papelbon's given up one earned run. One. He's 20 for 20 in save chances, with a 0.33 ERA. And he's technically still a rookie. Simply amazing. ESPN will catch on one of these days.

• Has anyone seen Stan Van Gundy since Pat Riley realized he had a potential championship team on his hands and decided to slime the coach out of a job? Is Van Gundy still working for the Heat, or for some other NBA team, or did he return to his previous gig as Ron Jeremy's stunt double? No matter what his fate or how bummed he must be at the moment, at least he knows that he'll always be referred to as "the better-looking Van Gundy brother." Hey, it's something.

• I'm not saying I agree with him, but Cornbread Maxwell's oft-repeated assertion that he'd take Dirk Nowitzki over Larry Bird doesn't sound quite so blasphemous now, does it? (I suspect Larry still holds his alcohol better, however.)

• My pal Mike over at TLBR is a walking iPod, and he had a great list of song recommendations today that included a tune by one of TATB's favorites, Ben Folds. Mike writes of Folds's "Landed": Another song that usually I need to stop what I'm doing and collect myself. That's a hell of an honest admission right there, but I know where he's coming from. I've had Folds's "Still Fighting It" rattling around in the music studio of my mind for the past few days, and of this I am convinced: If there's a line that captures the heartbreaking aspect of a parent/child relationship better than "You're just like me/I'm sorry" I haven't heard it.

• All right, I surrender. The Arroyo-for-Pena deal is a bust, at least for this year. There? Happy? Can we move on to another topic now? We can? Okay, good. I've got one: Why Moves That Don't Take The Future Into Some Consideration Are As Short-Sighted And Stupid As Glenn Ordway. (Subtitle: Doug Mirabelli Was Washed Up A Year Ago While Josh Bard Is Currently Hitting .360 With As Many Homers As Varitek). Discuss.

• The Rocket re-signed with the Astros. He's not coming to Boston, even at the trade deadline, okay? Time to let it go, fellas.


• If you're wondering why the Sox would throw David Pauley to the mustached, occasionally employed, wife-beater-wearing bleacher wolverines at Yankee Stadium this week rather than bringing up Jon Lester, all I can say is this: The knock on the prized lefty when he was at Portland last season was that he wasn't as mature as some of the other prospects, particularly Jonathan Papelbon and to a lesser extent, Pauley. While Lester obviously is blessed with a big-league arm - he was pitcher of the year in the Eastern League last season, beating out Justin Verlander and Francisco Liriano, among others - the suspicion here is that he's still not quite equipped to deal with the pressure (and probable failure) that a Bronx debut would bring. To put it another way, the Sox don't want to turn the kid into Bobby Sprowl. I'd say that's prudent wouldn't you?

• Does Joe Dumars's boss realize his GM really drafted Darko Milicic over Dwyane Wade (and Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh) three years ago? It was stupid then; it's historically idiotic now. Shouldn't Dumars have to return his Executive of the Year trophy and rescind any other accolades he's collected over the years, out of pure principle? This might be the worst personnel blunder ever committed by a member of the Bad Boy Pistons backcourt, and as Raptors, Pacers, Knicks and Continental Basketball Association fans know, that's saying something.


• I'm assuming that the poor sap of an umpire who was accosted at close range by Jim Leyland during the Tigers/Sox game today is still trying to get the nicotine smell out of his nostrils.

• Long ago and for better or worse, I accepted membership into the Antoine Walker Employee No. 8 Appreciation Society. My take on him was that he cared deeply about basketball and winning and being a respected member of the Boston Celtics, and even though his maddening actions sometimes left you wondering what the hell kind of screwed up impulses were going through his brain, he always meant well. So I have to say I was more bemused than surprised to see Shaq and Dwyane Wade playing it cool while ol' Toine partying like it was 1999 during the postgame celebration after the Heat finished off the Pistons the other night. 'Toine, who to his credit seems to have gracefully accepted life as a role player, should have taken a cue from his superstar teammates and acted like he'd been there before, even though, of course, he hadn't. Then again, that wouldn't have been like the 'Toine we knew and, warts, bricked 3s and all, enjoyed, now would it?

• Surprised to learn while banging out some agate at work tonight that Freddy Sanchez is second in the National League in batting at .345. While I thought Sanchez was a bit overhyped coming up through the Sox system - I considered him the Top Prospect By Default since there were so few to choose from in those days - he struck me as a player who could do a lot of little things well, had a good baseball IQ, and might make a nice living as a valuable utility player on a good team. Sort of an Alex Cora with a slightly better stick. But if the agate is to be believed, maybe the hype was justified after all.

• The whole MySpace phenomenon creeps me out. Yet as this pile of restraining orders on my desk suggests, I think I've made it apparent that I pretty much adore Jenna Fischer, the actress who plays Pam on "The Office." (Hey, at least I'm not stalking Uecker. Actually, truth be told, it's because she and her character remind me in many ways of my wife, and I'm not just saying that because I know my wife will read this. Hi dear! Love ya! Can we get pizza tonight?) Anyway, my conflict. As a shrewd way to increase the younger demographic's awareness of the acclaimed but ratings-challenged show, several cast members, including Jenna/Pam, blog on . . . yup, MySpace. I do hate the site - it strikes me as seedy, a place where Gary Glitter would spend a lot of time surfing. But her blog is actually becoming a must-read at TATB headquarters, not only for the insider info about our favorite show, but because she writes about everyday life - her favorite music, hanging out with friends and her husband, travel - and her status and unaffected style put an interesting twist on what might otherwise seem mundane. She comes across as grateful, occasionally overwhelmed, and just a little bit naive about her accelerating popularity. To put it another way, I can't quite imagine, say, Jennifer Aniston cheerfully soliciting autograph requests on a self-maintained internet site back in "Friends" fledgling days. I'm not sure she's doing it deliberately, but she's offering an insightful peek at what life is really like for the newly famous in Hollywood. I hope she keeps it up as her career ascends.

• Finally, thanks to all of you who sent me a note regarding my review of Rob Neyer's latest in The Globe the other day. I've been pretty atrocious at responding to email recently, so I just want to let all of you know that the kind words and correspondence are always much appreciated. For those of you who asked, no, writing isn't part of my job description now, and yes, I'm perfectly content with my gig on the desk. It's a blast, actually, and while the occasional review is fun, I mostly do it because I get to keep the book. I'm always geeked to add a new book to my sports library. Hey, have I mentioned that I'm an incurable sports nerd yet today? Probably figured it out, huh?

• As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:



Hmm, wonder if he could catch Wakefield.