First and 10: Sunset on a season

1. It was natural, in the mournful aftermath of the Patriots' loss to the Colts, to be tempted to put the franchise's days as an NFL power in the past tense. We longed for the not-so-long-ago days when Tom Brady was infallible and Peyton Manning could be counted on to swallow his chin strap in the clutch. We lamented a lost opportunity, and wondered, with a supersized dose of self-pity, if it would ever be so good again. Hey, it was devastating loss. We were appropriately devastated. But now that the defeat has had a week to fade farther away in the rear-view mirror, our perspective is again one of logic more than emotion. And while we still ache from a game that was two minutes too long, we can't help but feel optimistic about the Patriots and the direction in which they are headed. Oh, sure, some are eager to declare the dynasty dead, and while two years without a Super Bowl is absolutely a step back given what they accomplished in previous seasons, I believe with some minor tinkering this team will rise again before they fall. Think about it: Belichick is still here and still hungry. Brady is in his prime. Laurence Maroney looks like a dynamic ballcarrier. They are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and deep in the defensive backfield. We all know they need an impact linebacker and a wide receiver or two, but with two first-round picks and a few dollars to spend, those holes can and will be plugged. Further, we must applaud them for doing what was thought to be impossible during this salary cap era - they have replenished their talent base without sliding down the standings. The Patriots are a younger team now than they were in 2001, and if you take a look at some of the names on the roster that humbled The Greatest Show On Turf that glorious night, you'll realize they're a far more skilled team too. Contrary to current public opinion, they are not going the way of their closest peers in NFL history, the dynastic Cowboys of the '90s, who failed to surround its Hall of Fame core with a quality supporting cast once free agency took its toll. (And we won't even get into the impact of Barry Switzer's involvement.) The Patriots are not beginning a slow descent into mediocrity; they went 12-4 and lost in the conference championship game undergoing personnel transitions that would constitute a full-fledged rebuilding job for most franchises. That is an astonishing feat, and even with the abrupt ending, it was a hell of a season. Good health willing, there are even better seasons ahead.

2. It's trendy, particularly among the suddenly giddy Belichick Bashers, to say that Tony Dungy outcoached the Hoodied One in the second half, and maybe there's some truth there; even the likes of Andy Reid and Herm Edwards must be tempted to question the inept way the Patriots (mis)managed their timeouts in the final two minutes. But to say the Colts made a shrewd adjustment when they decided to stop throwing deep to Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison and instead started targeting the tight ends and running backs over the middle is to ignore the fact that everyone who watched the Patriots this season wondered why the Colts didn't do this sooner. Even a know-nothing bagpipe like Glenn Ordway knew Dallas Clark would be a tough cover for the Patriots' linebackers, who developed a collective case of rigamortis (oh, right . . . cramps) as the season progressed. The second half certainly was hideous for the Patriots; I shudder to think how many points Peyton and the Ponies might have produced had they been shrewd enough to attack the Patriots' glaring weakness from the start.

3. Obviously, an agile linebacker or two should be atop Belichick's grocery list in the offseason. Chicago's Lance Briggs and Baltimore's Adalius Thomas are the notable names in free agency, and while both are accomplished players (Thomas strikes me as a Willie McGinest clone), I'm not going to pretend to know how either would fit into the Patriots' complex scheme. Another intriguing possibility is Buffalo's London Fletcher-Baker, a fireplug whom Belichick has gone out of his way to compliment this season. I wonder if he's setting the stage to try to acquire him; it reminds me of the praise Belichick heaped on Rosey Colvin the season before he lured him to New England. I'd also like to believe the mock drafts are on the money and the Patriots will spend one of their first-round picks on Ole Miss's Patrick Willis. He can run, played his heart out for a hopeless team, says he's more suited to playing the 4-3, and has the maturity Belichick desires. In other words, he just what they need . . . presuming he fits their system, of course.

4. It's all well and good that the NFL kinda-sorta admitted it's mistake on the phantom Ellis Hobbs "face-guarding" call, but I'm still waiting for an explanation why no flag was thrown when Reche Caldwell was fondled, mugged, and mutilated in the end zone on a crucial fourth-quarter fade pattern. Had that happened to one of the Colts' delicate flowers, that nut Bill Polian would have stormed the NFL offices in a tank.

5. All right, Asante Samuel, I'm a believer. After the Law-like job you did on Marvin (Please Don't Touch Me!) Harrison, you deserve the title of Shutdown Corner, and the appropriate eight-figure signing bonus that comes with it. Here's hoping you're all right with becoming acquainted with another title: Franchise Player.

6. Samuel is obviously the priority among the free agents, but I do hope the Patriots find a way to retain Daniel Graham. Not only is he a devastating blocker and a respected voice in the locker room, but in my opinion he's the best all-around tight end on the roster by a Wilfork-wide margin. Ben Watson had a decent season numbers-wise, but the inconsistency of his hands and route-running was maddening, and I got the sense Brady's faith in him shriveled as the season progressed. Graham, meanwhile, made crucial catches in both the San Diego and Indy games, receptions I'm not sure Watson would have made since he struggles to hang on to any throw that doesn't hit him between the 8 and the 4 on his jersey.

7. So, has anyone heard from all the would-be personnel wizards who claimed the loss of Adam Vinatieri would cost the Patriots at least one game, if not two? The reality is that the greatest clutch kicker in NFL history was not missed for one moment this season, and for that it's time to give Stephen Gostkowski his due: after some early hiccups, the kid ultimately handled every challenge during a fine rookie season. Like his decorated predecessor, he saved his best moments for the playoffs, hitting all eight of his field goal attempts, including a 43-yarder that gave the Patriots a short-lived 34-31 lead against the Colts. And his final kickoff was a bomb - had the Colts not marched 80 yards down the field for the victory, he'd be getting his just due as an unsung hero.

8. That certain whinnying talk-radio metrosexual who claims that Rashad Baker's walk-on role in the Indy game is proof that the Patriots lacked roster depth? He's a lotion-slathered idiot. Anyone with a shred of perspective realizes Baker wouldn't be anywhere near the field if Harrison, Wilson, Artrell Hawkins, Tebucky Jones, Don Davis, and perhaps even Mel Mitchell hadn't been hurt. Including James Sanders and versatile Chad Scott, Baker is the Patriots' sixth-string safety at best. Quick, tell me one other team that is even four-deep at the position. Hell, the Colts' season-long defensive problems were in large part due to injuries to starting safeties Bob Sanders and Mike Doss - they simply had no one capable of replacing their best two guys. If anything, it's a nod to the Belichick and Scott Pioli's roster-building skills that they had one of the elite defenses in the league while playing without Harrison and Wilson almost the entire season.

9. Because we're shaking off our Patriots hangover and slowly transitioning back into baseball mode here at TATB headquarters, I suppose we should weigh in on the rumor of the day, that the Sox are in "high-level" negotiations with the Rockies to acquire first baseman Todd Helton. Our take: Good god, please let this be fiction. Helton is 33, has a bad back, is coming off a season in which he hit 15 homers with a career-low .476 slugging percentage playing half his games at Coors Field, and is due $90.1 million over the next six seasons. Even if the Rockies pick up half of the contract and take Matt Clement off the Sox's hands, I fail to see what the appeal is. Sure, he was a premier hitter not so long ago, but at this point, Helton's a line-drive hitter who sees a lot of pitches and plays a fine first base. Sounds like John Olerud circa 2005 to me. Pass, Theo.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Card:



Gee, think the Fridge will be the subject of any "Where Are They Now?" stories the next two weeks?

Weekend update

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free lunatic rantings for you . . .


1. I'm trying not to be overconfident here, but dammit, after their vintage performance during Viking Evisceration, I just can't help but believe this to be truth: The Patriots are going to destroy Colts. Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon, who basically had a bye last week, are going to run wild against that porous Indy run defense. Tom Brady will again prove he is his generation's Montana to Peyton Manning's Marino, deep-frying the poor backup Colts safeties filling in for Bob Sanders and Mike Doss. And a defense that was picked apart by Manning Patriots-Colts a season ago now has the personnel to befuddle him the way they did in their six previous victories; remember, last season, Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour were injured, Tedy Bruschi was in Week 2 of his comeback, Mike Vrabel was playing out of position, Chad Scott (who has been excellent) was on IR, unsung Artrell Hawkins was unemployed, Randall Gay was starting at safety, and someone named Mike Stone was the nickelback. Hell, Archie Manning could have shredded that defense. This defense? Let me put it this way: You can win a Super Bowl with this defense. And around midnight Sunday evening, it's going to be clear even to the Michael Irvins of the world that the Patriots are positioning themselves to do just that. Man, this feels like a playoff game. I can't wait.

2. Funny how so many in the electronic media seem to have forgotten this week that Adam Vinatieri's departure from the Patriots was just as much, if not more, his choice than it was Scott Pioli's or Bill Belichick's. It's almost as if the vocal, anti-Belichick posse is openly rooting for him to boot a winning kick on Sunday, thus teaching that cheapskate franchise a lesson it has longed deserved. Cripes, it's such nonsense. Listen, no one is going to coerce me into saying a bad word about Vinatieri or his unmatched legacy here: he was the only kicker I've completely believed in with a game on the line, he's booted at least two and as many as four of the most clutch kicks in league history, and he absolutely deserves a place in the Hall of Fame when all is said and done. I just wish some of the people getting paid to comment on this team would tell the entire truth: Vinatieri was the highest-paid kicker in the NFL on a couple of occasions during his time with the Patriots, he was offended that he wasn't paid more, suspected his previous agent colluded with the Patriots, and ultimately chose to leave. I'm not saying that's wrong. I'm just saying that's how it is. The Patriots, despite their concerns over his troublesome back, his decreasing range, and his limp kickoffs, did want to retain him at a reasonable price. It's unjust that they are being portrayed as kicking him to the curb, because any check of the basic facts will tell you that is not how it went down.

3. Am I the only one who got the sense that Glenn Ordway would not have been high on Red Auerbach's list of people to emcee a celebration of his life? Judging by the more-than-a-smattering of boos that greeted the Big Orb at the Garden the other night, apparently not, though he and Red did have one thing in common: both were remarkably adept at blowing smoke.

4. Just saw the news crawl across the NESN ticker: Francisco Liriano, the Twins' phenom lefty, needs Tommy John surgery and will likely miss the entire 2007 season. It's hardly unexpected, given the recurring pain he felt in his elbow when he tried to return late in the season, but it's sad news nonetheless. Liriano was the most overpowering, downright exciting pitcher I saw last season - watching him burst onto the scene reminded me of Dwight Gooden's arrival/ascendancy in '84/'85 - and it's a shame for baseball fans everywhere that a pitcher of such great ability and promise is now just one more scarred question mark.

5. So Captain Fist-Pump fulfills our previous warning and prances off with the Gold Glove that belongs on Gonzo's mantel. And it sure seems a forgone conclusion that he's going to beat out Papi, Justin Morneau, and half-dozen equally deserving candidates to win the AL MVP award. So I gotta ask: How the bleep are the fawning nitwit voters going to figure out a way to get him the Cy Young Award too?

6. Two games down, 80 to go, and I've seen nothing to alter my suspicion that the Celtics are an intriguing collection of individuals who fit poorly as a team. I like just about every single player on this roster to some extent (though Tony Allen, still clueless and no longer the sky-scraping athlete after his knee injury, is fast falling out of favor), but the mix just isn't right. I trust Danny Ainge is well aware of this, and I'm willing to believe he has stockpiled young talent in order to swap some of it for the right top-tier veteran if the opportunity arises. Personally, I think Kevin Garnett would look terrific in green.

7. Did you hear the big news? The Sox let Bill Haselman "pursue other opportunities" today. Yep, looks like we're looking for a new first base coach next season. I wonder if Baseball Prospectus might have a list of the best candidates, maybe broken down into the key statistical categories: Fewest Runners Thrown Out At Second, Most Attaboys Offered Per Baserunner, Most Accurate At Giving A Fist-Pound, etc, etc. Goddamn, I need this hot stove to heat up already. Other than all the intriguing Daniel Bard rumors - could he be the next Justin Verlander? - there is just nada going on right now.

8. I don't know who is winning the NBA title this season, but I can tell you who isn't: The Miami Heat. For all of Dwyane Wade's greatness - the only player I'd rather have than him is LeBron - he's going to be going at it alone a lot more than the experts realize, and if he continues to take more hits than David Carr and misses any length of time, this team will crumble. I can see Shaq's age, weight and regular-season indifference leading to a shockingly precipitous decline, 'Zo, 'Toine and Gary Payton are a year older and, you'd have to believe, considerably more complacent, and the bench is thinner than Tony Parker's girlfriend. It all went right for Miami last year. Despite Wade's best efforts, it won't happen again.

9. The latest episode of "The Office" was far and away the best in what thus far has been a funny but uneven season. Two questions that linger: What was Fancy New Beesley talking about when she said she "was expecting something to happen tonight"? And what, exactly, was the content of that text message that Jim was too blitzed to pick up? Thursday, and the pivotal episode titled "Branch Closing," can't come soon enough.

10. As for today's Completely Random Tony Dungy Photo:

Looking at him now, would you have ever believed he'd played professional football? And that he had to tackle people?

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Quick programming note: The plan is to live-blog the Pats-Colts game Sunday night, so be sure to stop by TATB and make yourself at home during the game. There's plenty of beer in the fridge. Help yourself, peeps.